Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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Fun and games begin. Timing is the key here and I am going with the gfs on this one. I believe the warm moist air gets in here quicker so I like the ideal of a wet Thanksgiving. Again the Euro could be correct also though I believe if that model is correct the temp on Thanksgiving looks a little high for my liking. I checked out the CMC and its sort of compromise between the two with rain holding off until Black Friday but not nearly as warm as the Euro.
The big difference is this. Where is the energy even coming from? GFS is faster because it has the energy coming into the Pacific NW via the northern jet. Euro is slower as it has the energy coming in via the STJ. GFS by the morning of T-giving has the system getting cranked up in Texas and rain knocking on our door. Euro has the low in deep south TX with the rain not yet to St. Louis. Two completely different storm evolutions.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:23 pmFun and games begin. Timing is the key here and I am going with the gfs on this one. I believe the warm moist air gets in here quicker so I like the ideal of a wet Thanksgiving. Again the Euro could be correct also though I believe if that model is correct the temp on Thanksgiving looks a little high for my liking. I checked out the CMC and its sort of compromise between the two with rain holding off until Black Friday but not nearly as warm as the Euro.
Exactly and with the Euro imo with a low in deep south TX it it way to warm for us on Thanksgiving. We still should have some influence of high pressure to the northeast and yes I expect a big push of moisture with this system but I believe the moisture and warmer air comes in here at the same time where the Euro has a push of warm air and then the push of moisture. So at this point I like the gfs ideal through the Thanksgiving weekend but believe its to cold afterwards.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:27 pmThe big difference is this. Where is the energy even coming from? GFS is faster because it has the energy coming into the Pacific NW via the northern jet. Euro is slower as it has the energy coming in via the STJ. GFS by the morning of T-giving has the system getting cranked up in Texas and rain knocking on our door. Euro has the low in deep south TX with the rain not yet to St. Louis. Two completely different storm evolutions.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:23 pmFun and games begin. Timing is the key here and I am going with the gfs on this one. I believe the warm moist air gets in here quicker so I like the ideal of a wet Thanksgiving. Again the Euro could be correct also though I believe if that model is correct the temp on Thanksgiving looks a little high for my liking. I checked out the CMC and its sort of compromise between the two with rain holding off until Black Friday but not nearly as warm as the Euro.
The GFS idea has been more consistent but I won't rule the Euro out yet since it's early in the game. The getting cold after that part, as mentioned, I am up in the air about.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:34 pmExactly and with the Euro imo with a low in deep south TX it it way to warm for us on Thanksgiving. We still should have some influence of high pressure to the northeast and yes I expect a big push of moisture with this system but I believe the moisture and warmer air comes in here at the same time where the Euro has a push of warm air and then the push of moisture. So at this point I like the gfs ideal through the Thanksgiving weekend but believe its to cold afterwards.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:27 pmThe big difference is this. Where is the energy even coming from? GFS is faster because it has the energy coming into the Pacific NW via the northern jet. Euro is slower as it has the energy coming in via the STJ. GFS by the morning of T-giving has the system getting cranked up in Texas and rain knocking on our door. Euro has the low in deep south TX with the rain not yet to St. Louis. Two completely different storm evolutions.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:23 pmFun and games begin. Timing is the key here and I am going with the gfs on this one. I believe the warm moist air gets in here quicker so I like the ideal of a wet Thanksgiving. Again the Euro could be correct also though I believe if that model is correct the temp on Thanksgiving looks a little high for my liking. I checked out the CMC and its sort of compromise between the two with rain holding off until Black Friday but not nearly as warm as the Euro.
No pun intended Les. I believe its just a quick shot so yes a rain to snow situation could happen over the weekend but at this point not expecting much but then I really do believe we get into the milder period for about 2 weeks. Does not mean its warm everyday but I believe the amount of mild days will outweigh the amount of cooler days for that time of year.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:43 pmThe GFS idea has been more consistent but I won't rule the Euro out yet since it's early in the game. The getting cold after that part, as mentioned, I am up in the air about.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:34 pmExactly and with the Euro imo with a low in deep south TX it it way to warm for us on Thanksgiving. We still should have some influence of high pressure to the northeast and yes I expect a big push of moisture with this system but I believe the moisture and warmer air comes in here at the same time where the Euro has a push of warm air and then the push of moisture. So at this point I like the gfs ideal through the Thanksgiving weekend but believe its to cold afterwards.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:27 pmThe big difference is this. Where is the energy even coming from? GFS is faster because it has the energy coming into the Pacific NW via the northern jet. Euro is slower as it has the energy coming in via the STJ. GFS by the morning of T-giving has the system getting cranked up in Texas and rain knocking on our door. Euro has the low in deep south TX with the rain not yet to St. Louis. Two completely different storm evolutions.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:23 pmFun and games begin. Timing is the key here and I am going with the gfs on this one. I believe the warm moist air gets in here quicker so I like the ideal of a wet Thanksgiving. Again the Euro could be correct also though I believe if that model is correct the temp on Thanksgiving looks a little high for my liking. I checked out the CMC and its sort of compromise between the two with rain holding off until Black Friday but not nearly as warm as the Euro.
What's interesting is that while the Pacific pattern starts to go the wrong way (we lose the -EPO and get a -PNA) the Atlantic pattern cooperates with a -AO and -NAO should the forecasts be correct. While the pattern may not be totally favorable for big snows, it doesn't exactly scream warm to me either. Plus, it has a chance to build into something better as December progresses (IMO).tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:48 pmNo pun intended Les. I believe its just a quick shot so yes a rain to snow situation could happen over the weekend but at this point not expecting much but then I really do believe we get into the milder period for about 2 weeks. Does not mean its warm everyday but I believe the amount of mild days will outweigh the amount of cooler days for that time of year.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:43 pmThe GFS idea has been more consistent but I won't rule the Euro out yet since it's early in the game. The getting cold after that part, as mentioned, I am up in the air about.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:34 pmExactly and with the Euro imo with a low in deep south TX it it way to warm for us on Thanksgiving. We still should have some influence of high pressure to the northeast and yes I expect a big push of moisture with this system but I believe the moisture and warmer air comes in here at the same time where the Euro has a push of warm air and then the push of moisture. So at this point I like the gfs ideal through the Thanksgiving weekend but believe its to cold afterwards.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:27 pmThe big difference is this. Where is the energy even coming from? GFS is faster because it has the energy coming into the Pacific NW via the northern jet. Euro is slower as it has the energy coming in via the STJ. GFS by the morning of T-giving has the system getting cranked up in Texas and rain knocking on our door. Euro has the low in deep south TX with the rain not yet to St. Louis. Two completely different storm evolutions.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:23 pm
Fun and games begin. Timing is the key here and I am going with the gfs on this one. I believe the warm moist air gets in here quicker so I like the ideal of a wet Thanksgiving. Again the Euro could be correct also though I believe if that model is correct the temp on Thanksgiving looks a little high for my liking. I checked out the CMC and its sort of compromise between the two with rain holding off until Black Friday but not nearly as warm as the Euro.
I believe you hit on a big key and that imo is the AO. I really believe while its been neutral even with this cold outbreak I believe its headed positive for and extended period. Again if the AO or NAO stay negative then yes a better shot of winter weather the first 2 weeks of December.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:01 pmWhat's interesting is that while the Pacific pattern starts to go the wrong way (we lose the -EPO and get a -PNA) the Atlantic pattern cooperates with a -AO and -NAO should the forecasts be correct. While the pattern may not be totally favorable for big snows, it doesn't exactly scream warm to me either. Plus, it has a chance to build into something better as December progresses (IMO).tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:48 pmNo pun intended Les. I believe its just a quick shot so yes a rain to snow situation could happen over the weekend but at this point not expecting much but then I really do believe we get into the milder period for about 2 weeks. Does not mean its warm everyday but I believe the amount of mild days will outweigh the amount of cooler days for that time of year.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:43 pmThe GFS idea has been more consistent but I won't rule the Euro out yet since it's early in the game. The getting cold after that part, as mentioned, I am up in the air about.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:34 pmExactly and with the Euro imo with a low in deep south TX it it way to warm for us on Thanksgiving. We still should have some influence of high pressure to the northeast and yes I expect a big push of moisture with this system but I believe the moisture and warmer air comes in here at the same time where the Euro has a push of warm air and then the push of moisture. So at this point I like the gfs ideal through the Thanksgiving weekend but believe its to cold afterwards.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:27 pm
The big difference is this. Where is the energy even coming from? GFS is faster because it has the energy coming into the Pacific NW via the northern jet. Euro is slower as it has the energy coming in via the STJ. GFS by the morning of T-giving has the system getting cranked up in Texas and rain knocking on our door. Euro has the low in deep south TX with the rain not yet to St. Louis. Two completely different storm evolutions.
Well, the light rain finally moved in here. Stopped working about an hour ago as it was a cold rain and had some flurries mixed in. I was chilling to the bone.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:46 amThis system had two problems and one is the split of energy with one to our northwest and another along the gom. The second is the system was heading towards the drier air mass compared to this past weekend. The good thing is we never really expected much but I thought we may see a little more light rain then we have seen.
This is where our thoughts will differ. I am going with a -AO. The PV is forecast to split. Now that doesn't guarantee that we will get cold, but the AO is negative as the PV is on the move. We know the cold is going to go somewhere. If the NAO is negative, some will probably get dumped into Europe per usual, but Canada will continue to also be cold. So if we can get some cooperation from the EPO / PNA in December then we should be all set for a period of fun. When does it all go down is what we will have to forecast, that is our job to figure out.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:06 pmI believe you hit on a big key and that imo is the AO. I really believe while its been neutral even with this cold outbreak I believe its headed positive for and extended period. Again if the AO or NAO stay negative then yes a better shot of winter weather the first 2 weeks of December.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:01 pm What's interesting is that while the Pacific pattern starts to go the wrong way (we lose the -EPO and get a -PNA) the Atlantic pattern cooperates with a -AO and -NAO should the forecasts be correct. While the pattern may not be totally favorable for big snows, it doesn't exactly scream warm to me either. Plus, it has a chance to build into something better as December progresses (IMO).
That is the $64,000 question Doug. For me with regards to December, is it like Dec 95, 2000, and 2010 (all at least were moderate Nina's) which were cold and snowy or do we get the usual December ratter we've had for the last 12 years in a row including the last 2 which were Nina's? I just have a feeling this one is going to be different. We cannot expect a record setting Dec 2010 outcome nor should be expect an insanely warm Dec like last year. At any rate, it's going to be fun to see how thing evolve.dce wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:14 pm In my opinion, this could be one of those years when the models show warm 10-15 days out only to get colder as the time frame approaches. At least for the first have of winter while we still have a moderate La Nina. That is what we saw last month with this current cold wave. Just an opinion, so we will see what happens over the next month or so.
Gloomy and damp here as well with low clouds and drizzle. 40 degrees. Only saving grace are that we have light winds.
Great Post Les and the way folks see different things on this forum imo makes it a very good forum. Do I believe the AO will go negative and no doubt but I believe first it will it a positive phase that gets the arctic regions really cold and then we see the disruption. Sure we can get cold without the PV like the current phase we are in and of course we needed tons of help from the pacific in bringing Canadian cold into the USA. I just believe that if want a colder pattern in December we need that build-up of cold in the arctic regions first and the let mother nature take care of the rest. Should be a good exercise in weather forecasting over the next couple of weeks as we both are seeing things somewhat different and again either ideal is possible to pan out. How many times when we differ Les it tends to work out somewhere in the middle lol.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:16 pmThis is where our thoughts will differ. I am going with a -AO. The PV is forecast to split. Now that doesn't guarantee that we will get cold, but the AO is negative as the PV is on the move. We know the cold is going to go somewhere. If the NAO is negative, some will probably get dumped into Europe per usual, but Canada will continue to also be cold. So if we can get some cooperation from the EPO / PNA in December then we should be all set for a period of fun. When does it all go down is what we will have to forecast, that is our job to figure out.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:06 pmI believe you hit on a big key and that imo is the AO. I really believe while its been neutral even with this cold outbreak I believe its headed positive for and extended period. Again if the AO or NAO stay negative then yes a better shot of winter weather the first 2 weeks of December.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:01 pm What's interesting is that while the Pacific pattern starts to go the wrong way (we lose the -EPO and get a -PNA) the Atlantic pattern cooperates with a -AO and -NAO should the forecasts be correct. While the pattern may not be totally favorable for big snows, it doesn't exactly scream warm to me either. Plus, it has a chance to build into something better as December progresses (IMO).
Oh, I'm almost sure that we'll meet in the middle as we usually do.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:23 pmGreat Post Les and the way folks see different things on this forum imo makes it a very good forum. Do I believe the AO will go negative and no doubt but I believe first it will it a positive phase that gets the arctic regions really cold and then we see the disruption. Sure we can get cold without the PV like the current phase we are in and of course we needed tons of help from the pacific in bringing Canadian cold into the USA. I just believe that if want a colder pattern in December we need that build-up of cold in the arctic regions first and the let mother nature take care of the rest. Should be a good exercise in weather forecasting over the next couple of weeks as we both are seeing things somewhat different and again either ideal is possible to pan out. How many times when we differ Les it tends to work out somewhere in the middle lol.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:16 pm This is where our thoughts will differ. I am going with a -AO. The PV is forecast to split. Now that doesn't guarantee that we will get cold, but the AO is negative as the PV is on the move. We know the cold is going to go somewhere. If the NAO is negative, some will probably get dumped into Europe per usual, but Canada will continue to also be cold. So if we can get some cooperation from the EPO / PNA in December then we should be all set for a period of fun. When does it all go down is what we will have to forecast, that is our job to figure out.
Only thing I have to add further is that this year has been different then the last several. Canada has been cold and the coldest air has been on our side of the globe since the Fall. Typically, it has been Siberia and we have to depend on cross polar flow. Yes, that is always nice to keep the cold air production going, but one reason this Nov has been cold once the pattern allowed for it, was that Canada was already cold. We were waiting for the tropics to finish up so it could get delivered. Now... we are going to see when the next delivery is going to be.Great point Les and with the pacific along with the Atlantic tropics we were able to get some really decent cold down into the USA. My concern is when I start to see Siberia get cold and though early on it got cold there but over the last several weeks the coldest compared to normal has been in Northern Canada. So I saw a -46 with the most recent output which is about 20 degrees colder than it has been there. I have to add that to my forecast mix I use and if this trend continues then a positive AO is likey imo. If that changes and we get the coldest air compared to normal over Canada then I would expect a quicker return of cold air.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:39 pmOh, I'm almost sure that we'll meet in the middle as we usually do.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:23 pmGreat Post Les and the way folks see different things on this forum imo makes it a very good forum. Do I believe the AO will go negative and no doubt but I believe first it will it a positive phase that gets the arctic regions really cold and then we see the disruption. Sure we can get cold without the PV like the current phase we are in and of course we needed tons of help from the pacific in bringing Canadian cold into the USA. I just believe that if want a colder pattern in December we need that build-up of cold in the arctic regions first and the let mother nature take care of the rest. Should be a good exercise in weather forecasting over the next couple of weeks as we both are seeing things somewhat different and again either ideal is possible to pan out. How many times when we differ Les it tends to work out somewhere in the middle lol.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:16 pm This is where our thoughts will differ. I am going with a -AO. The PV is forecast to split. Now that doesn't guarantee that we will get cold, but the AO is negative as the PV is on the move. We know the cold is going to go somewhere. If the NAO is negative, some will probably get dumped into Europe per usual, but Canada will continue to also be cold. So if we can get some cooperation from the EPO / PNA in December then we should be all set for a period of fun. When does it all go down is what we will have to forecast, that is our job to figure out.
So far, they haven't done a bad job.Another great point Les and hopefully it goes into 5 and would like 6. My problem would be if would enter phase 4 which could occur then no doubt the warmer period should last longer. If we go directly to 6 then a return to colder would most likely be quicker. Of course phase 5 is the middle ground and then we roll the dice lol.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 4:09 pm Tim.. I am still monitoring the MJO as well. Now if the forecast models are correct, the MJO should be coming out of the neutral circle either today or very soon so the Aussie's when they update are 2-3 days behind so in their next update, we should see the MJO either in the neutral circle close to coming out, or out of the circle in weak 5 or 6. Let's see how this looks in the days ahead. I'm trying to also use the MJO to calculate said pattern changes. Sometimes, you can accurately predict the timing within 2 weeks. But it doesn't always work since the models can be wrong about the MJO, which we've seen happen numerous times.
From what I've seen, the majority of models have it re-emerging into Phase 5, but quickly moving thru 6, and finally getting back into 7 right after Thanksgiving with it stalling there to close out Nov. We shall see!tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 4:18 pmAnother great point Les and hopefully it goes into 5 and would like 6. My problem would be if would enter phase 4 which could occur then no doubt the warmer period should last longer. If we go directly to 6 then a return to colder would most likely be quicker. Of course phase 5 is the middle ground and then we roll the dice lol.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 4:09 pm Tim.. I am still monitoring the MJO as well. Now if the forecast models are correct, the MJO should be coming out of the neutral circle either today or very soon so the Aussie's when they update are 2-3 days behind so in their next update, we should see the MJO either in the neutral circle close to coming out, or out of the circle in weak 5 or 6. Let's see how this looks in the days ahead. I'm trying to also use the MJO to calculate said pattern changes. Sometimes, you can accurately predict the timing within 2 weeks. But it doesn't always work since the models can be wrong about the MJO, which we've seen happen numerous times.
It is sure looking like 2 to 4 feet is possible if not 5 feet plus in some cases. Hamberg, NY got 7 FT in the Nov 2014 event.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 6:08 pm I love seeing all the snow around the lakes and Buffalo expecting multiple feet of snow. This happens for that city when you get a west to southwest wind flow that lasts for several days. Back in the 70's with the great winters of 76/77 and 77/78 the wind was from the direction often. Matter of fact here locally we had the direction of the wind as well but we had such cold air masses that storms coming from the southwest was pounding us. When will we see that kind of winter again. Hopefully in the near future.
