Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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Hey Les and love the conviction in your forecast. I am sticking with my call of .50 and a little higher for some folks.There are many factors involved and we are talking only about a 1/4 inch or rain. The problem is I can see both sides and just ended up going with my gut on this one. I do believe the 2nd system could provide a much needed dose of rain but to early for totals but feel good about the 2nd system.tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 12:48 pm 12Z NAM is coming back down to earth now for the next system giving CVG a half inch of rain. The 12Z GFS has 0.35". I still like 0.25" for most as I've had called for days ago. No changes from me at this point to be honest. Letting my dust settler call ride.
Thanks Tim! I have that same respect for you as well. We both have different ideas with sound meteorological reasoning. Mother Nature will tell us who was right and wrong and that's about it.tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 4:08 pmHey Les and love the conviction in your forecast. I am sticking with my call of .50 and a little higher for some folks.There are many factors involved and we are talking only about a 1/4 inch or rain. The problem is I can see both sides and just ended up going with my gut on this one. I do believe the 2nd system could provide a much needed dose of rain but to early for totals but feel good about the 2nd system.tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 12:48 pm 12Z NAM is coming back down to earth now for the next system giving CVG a half inch of rain. The 12Z GFS has 0.35". I still like 0.25" for most as I've had called for days ago. No changes from me at this point to be honest. Letting my dust settler call ride.
78 for my high today.MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 5:18 pm The 77 Trio for Sun as CVG, DAY and CMH all reached that.
Nice day and the dust just keeps on going. I don't recall a dry period like this for a few years during this time of year. Normally cussing the rain as trying to get leaf work done. Have a great week ahead.Good Morning Les and I will keep my post the same as well. Funny though when we disagree the forecast ends up somewhere in the middle. Will this happen this go around and we can only wait and see in about 48 hours. The system out in the northern plains and rockies went much further north and west than models predicted. The models are moving the system heading this way a little further north and west. Will this hurt or help rainfall chances? Can go either way and maybe you get a few hours less of rain coming down but you may become a little more unstable and this could either fire up a thundershower or a stronger squall line to move through here.
If we get 0.50-0.75" I would consider that an in the middle result between our two forecasts.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 8:44 amGood Morning Les and I will keep my post the same as well. Funny though when we disagree the forecast ends up somewhere in the middle. Will this happen this go around and we can only wait and see in about 48 hours. The system out in the northern plains and rockies went much further north and west than models predicted. The models are moving the system heading this way a little further north and west. Will this hurt or help rainfall chances? Can go either way and maybe you get a few hours less of rain coming down but you may become a little more unstable and this could either fire up a thundershower or a stronger squall line to move through here.
If the system is tracking further NW, then I agree that would up the ante for a t-storm or two which could drop a quick half inch in the areas where they occur. A marginal risk tomorrow for the Western half of KY just south of the LOU area right now per SPC.Agree... for the people who covered their tomatoes, they are probably still getting some too. My spinach has come up. It should be nice and strong for when the cold and snow does come. I'm going mild thru mid November then we change. Although if the GooFuS has any say, a cold shot of air does keep showing up around the 7th, but it looks to be transient either way.
Hey Les and I believe you were going with 0.25 and I was going with 0.50. The middle would be in that 0.37-0.38. I had to make sure that was the forecasts we made and that is what I show. I was hoping for 2 inches between this system and the one next weekend but figured 1 inch would be more likely.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:03 amIf we get 0.50-0.75" I would consider that an in the middle result between our two forecasts.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 8:44 amGood Morning Les and I will keep my post the same as well. Funny though when we disagree the forecast ends up somewhere in the middle. Will this happen this go around and we can only wait and see in about 48 hours. The system out in the northern plains and rockies went much further north and west than models predicted. The models are moving the system heading this way a little further north and west. Will this hurt or help rainfall chances? Can go either way and maybe you get a few hours less of rain coming down but you may become a little more unstable and this could either fire up a thundershower or a stronger squall line to move through here.
I gotcha Tim... thanks! I understand now.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 3:24 pmHey Les and I believe you were going with 0.25 and I was going with 0.50. The middle would be in that 0.37-0.38. I had to make sure that was the forecasts we made and that is what I show. I was hoping for 2 inches between this system and the one next weekend but figured 1 inch would be more likely.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:03 amIf we get 0.50-0.75" I would consider that an in the middle result between our two forecasts.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 8:44 amGood Morning Les and I will keep my post the same as well. Funny though when we disagree the forecast ends up somewhere in the middle. Will this happen this go around and we can only wait and see in about 48 hours. The system out in the northern plains and rockies went much further north and west than models predicted. The models are moving the system heading this way a little further north and west. Will this hurt or help rainfall chances? Can go either way and maybe you get a few hours less of rain coming down but you may become a little more unstable and this could either fire up a thundershower or a stronger squall line to move through here.
I worked my regular IT Job of course and It just seemed busier then usual. I have a few appointments in the morning scheduled as overflow. 
Anyway... sorry for the late posting tonight. Ground leaves after work until dark. Then, I fired up the grill and seared some ribeye steaks in a cast iron skillet basted in butter and garlic, spices, etc. It was awesome as you'd expect! I have not even showered yet. I just finished wrapping everything up outside. I wanted to post first. So let me try and make this short.