Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z NAM is coming back down to earth now for the next system giving CVG a half inch of rain. The 12Z GFS has 0.35". I still like 0.25" for most as I've had called for days ago. No changes from me at this point to be honest. Letting my dust settler call ride.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has 0.41" for CVG on Wed then a wet Sunday night into Halloween day as well.

[tpweather]

12Z NAM is coming back down to earth now for the next system giving CVG a half inch of rain. The 12Z GFS has 0.35". I still like 0.25" for most as I've had called for days ago. No changes from me at this point to be honest. Letting my dust settler call ride.

Hey Les and love the conviction in your forecast. I am sticking with my call of .50 and a little higher for some folks.There are many factors involved and we are talking only about a 1/4 inch or rain. The problem is I can see both sides and just ended up going with my gut on this one. I do believe the 2nd system could provide a much needed dose of rain but to early for totals but feel good about the 2nd system.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 78 and DAY and CMH both 77 on Sat.

Currently 73 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

The 77 Trio for Sun as CVG, DAY and CMH all reached that.

[tron777]

12Z NAM is coming back down to earth now for the next system giving CVG a half inch of rain. The 12Z GFS has 0.35". I still like 0.25" for most as I've had called for days ago. No changes from me at this point to be honest. Letting my dust settler call ride.

Hey Les and love the conviction in your forecast. I am sticking with my call of .50 and a little higher for some folks.There are many factors involved and we are talking only about a 1/4 inch or rain. The problem is I can see both sides and just ended up going with my gut on this one. I do believe the 2nd system could provide a much needed dose of rain but to early for totals but feel good about the 2nd system.

Thanks Tim! I have that same respect for you as well. We both have different ideas with sound meteorological reasoning. Mother Nature will tell us who was right and wrong and that's about it.

[tron777]

The 77 Trio for Sun as CVG, DAY and CMH all reached that.

78 for my high today.

[young pup]

Guess I was wrong on shorts weather. Nice day and the dust just keeps on going. I don't recall a dry period like this for a few years during this time of year. Normally cussing the rain as trying to get leaf work done. Have a great week ahead.

[tron777]

78 here today we should see the same tomorrow and the mid 70s on Tues with increasing clouds and a chance of rain by afternoon. Likely Tues night wrapping up on Wed. Seasonal temps then chance of rain next weekend and on Halloween with our next upper low. Then.... Welcome to November!!!! Get those contest entries in!!!

[tron777]

Good Monday morning all! See my post from last night. No changes from me this morning.

[tpweather]

Good Monday morning all! See my post from last night. No changes from me this morning.

Good Morning Les and I will keep my post the same as well. Funny though when we disagree the forecast ends up somewhere in the middle. Will this happen this go around and we can only wait and see in about 48 hours. The system out in the northern plains and rockies went much further north and west than models predicted. The models are moving the system heading this way a little further north and west. Will this hurt or help rainfall chances? Can go either way and maybe you get a few hours less of rain coming down but you may become a little more unstable and this could either fire up a thundershower or a stronger squall line to move through here.

[tron777]

Good Monday morning all! See my post from last night. No changes from me this morning.

Good Morning Les and I will keep my post the same as well. Funny though when we disagree the forecast ends up somewhere in the middle. Will this happen this go around and we can only wait and see in about 48 hours. The system out in the northern plains and rockies went much further north and west than models predicted. The models are moving the system heading this way a little further north and west. Will this hurt or help rainfall chances? Can go either way and maybe you get a few hours less of rain coming down but you may become a little more unstable and this could either fire up a thundershower or a stronger squall line to move through here.

If we get 0.50-0.75" I would consider that an in the middle result between our two forecasts. If the system is tracking further NW, then I agree that would up the ante for a t-storm or two which could drop a quick half inch in the areas where they occur. A marginal risk tomorrow for the Western half of KY just south of the LOU area right now per SPC.

[tron777]

[Bgoney]

I know Growing season is officially over but unofficially there are plenty of annuals and perennials and garden veggies (lettuce, peas, turnips,cabbage) that are going strong and should continue for the next 1-2 weeks at least

[tron777]

I know Growing season is officially over but unofficially there are plenty of annuals and perennials and garden veggies (lettuce, peas, turnips,cabbage) that are going strong and should continue for the next 1-2 weeks at least

Agree... for the people who covered their tomatoes, they are probably still getting some too. My spinach has come up. It should be nice and strong for when the cold and snow does come. I'm going mild thru mid November then we change. Although if the GooFuS has any say, a cold shot of air does keep showing up around the 7th, but it looks to be transient either way.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 73 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 77.

[tron777]

75 at CVG currently... another beautiful fall day allbeit overcast attm. Wind has laid down.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is coming in with a third of an inch at CVG with our next system. Much slower with the system after that keeping us dry for the majority of the weekend with a soaking rain on Halloween including Trick or Treat time in some areas too. We need the rain yes... but the timing stinks!

[tpweather]

Good Monday morning all! See my post from last night. No changes from me this morning.

Good Morning Les and I will keep my post the same as well. Funny though when we disagree the forecast ends up somewhere in the middle. Will this happen this go around and we can only wait and see in about 48 hours. The system out in the northern plains and rockies went much further north and west than models predicted. The models are moving the system heading this way a little further north and west. Will this hurt or help rainfall chances? Can go either way and maybe you get a few hours less of rain coming down but you may become a little more unstable and this could either fire up a thundershower or a stronger squall line to move through here.

If we get 0.50-0.75" I would consider that an in the middle result between our two forecasts. If the system is tracking further NW, then I agree that would up the ante for a t-storm or two which could drop a quick half inch in the areas where they occur. A marginal risk tomorrow for the Western half of KY just south of the LOU area right now per SPC.

Hey Les and I believe you were going with 0.25 and I was going with 0.50. The middle would be in that 0.37-0.38. I had to make sure that was the forecasts we made and that is what I show. I was hoping for 2 inches between this system and the one next weekend but figured 1 inch would be more likely.

[tron777]

Good Monday morning all! See my post from last night. No changes from me this morning.

Good Morning Les and I will keep my post the same as well. Funny though when we disagree the forecast ends up somewhere in the middle. Will this happen this go around and we can only wait and see in about 48 hours. The system out in the northern plains and rockies went much further north and west than models predicted. The models are moving the system heading this way a little further north and west. Will this hurt or help rainfall chances? Can go either way and maybe you get a few hours less of rain coming down but you may become a little more unstable and this could either fire up a thundershower or a stronger squall line to move through here.

If we get 0.50-0.75" I would consider that an in the middle result between our two forecasts. If the system is tracking further NW, then I agree that would up the ante for a t-storm or two which could drop a quick half inch in the areas where they occur. A marginal risk tomorrow for the Western half of KY just south of the LOU area right now per SPC.

Hey Les and I believe you were going with 0.25 and I was going with 0.50. The middle would be in that 0.37-0.38. I had to make sure that was the forecasts we made and that is what I show. I was hoping for 2 inches between this system and the one next weekend but figured 1 inch would be more likely.

I gotcha Tim... thanks! I understand now.

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/local/barn-se ... HHR2YB3NU/

Some idiot set a barn on fire south of Greenville!

Currently 72 here.

[Bgoney]

Got a long ways to go to get out of drought conditions

addpcp.gif

[MVWxObserver]

Got to 78 in CVG, 77 CMH and 76 DAY today.

[tron777]

I hit 78 here today. It has been a long day! I am beat. I worked my regular IT Job of course and It just seemed busier then usual. I have a few appointments in the morning scheduled as overflow. Anyway... sorry for the late posting tonight. Ground leaves after work until dark. Then, I fired up the grill and seared some ribeye steaks in a cast iron skillet basted in butter and garlic, spices, etc. It was awesome as you'd expect! I have not even showered yet. I just finished wrapping everything up outside. I wanted to post first. So let me try and make this short.

Shower chance begins tomorrow afternoon and becomes likely tomorrow night. Small chance Wed with wrap around moisture as low moves thru and overhead. A chilly day in the 50s, versus tomorrow, the last 70 for a bit which is coming tomorrow. ahead of the front. Thurs and Fri is seasonal for late Rocktober.

Then, for the weekend, the next system moves in. A slow moving upper low. Now... is is coming Sat afternoon lingers into only half of Halloween? OR Does the system get delayed until late Sunday and then thru most of Halloween into Trick or Treat time? Light rain expected with this system. Cool, clammy. Low clouds. Good Halloween weather if the rain isn't too heavy in the evening. Will depend on timing.

Then it is on to November. And boy and boy, let me get that thread rocking before bed. Stay tuned...

[tron777]

Good morning! Only tweak to make to the short term forecast is timing. Most of today should be dry. Cannot rule out an isolated shower this afternoon, but most folks wont see much until the evening / overnight hours. Otherwise... let 'er ride!

Then we are still watching the timing of the next system and it's departure, which is of the utmost importance for Halloween.