Absolute Vorticity

Nothing up my way from Thurs. Hopefully on Sat night / Sun.

Good morning all! Dews are currently down into the mid 50s and continuing to drop! Love it! A gorgeous Friday and Saturday upcoming then rain Sunday morning is the call. Could see a lingering shower Monday then back to gorgeous!

Taking a closer look at the extended range... I foresee the same pattern we are in now continuing. NW Flow, a lot of systems zipping on thru with no huge rains or severe wx, etc. No big heat either as it stays to the West. A classic +PNA pattern as I mentioned before. I see this continuing honestly for the rest of August the way things are currently looking. Don't know about September yet, but the 90s for August, only 1 day so far for this month and that maybe it! Any other thoughts on this out there?

Good Morning Les. Normally when you see a nice pattern like this in August it is usually for a short period of time. This time the trough looks to be rather large and this will help keep the heat at bay for awhile. What models are trying to show imo is the Bermuda High should build once again and this pushes the trough even further west later this month. How hot will it get and again much of that will have to do with the tropics.

EDIT: If the twitter link isn't working, try the Facebook one.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:38 am Good Morning Les. Normally when you see a nice pattern like this in August it is usually for a short period of time. This time the trough looks to be rather large and this will help keep the heat at bay for awhile. What models are trying to show imo is the Bermuda High should build once again and this pushes the trough even further west later this month. How hot will it get and again much of that will have to do with the tropics.

Good morning Tim! I agree, if the tropics can wake up, the heat might be done or at least we won't see much more of it. Tough to say this early on but worth watching. I am not seeing much on the models tropically speaking right now either. Might have to wait until September.

Tropics continue to look remarkably quiet, and modeling doesn’t suggest any sort of uptick in activity anytime soon. Unless some things change over the next couple weeks, some of those more aggressive seasonal forecasts are in jeopardy IMO.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:04 am Tropics continue to look remarkably quiet, and modeling doesn’t suggest any sort of uptick in activity anytime soon. Unless some things change over the next couple weeks, some of those more aggressive seasonal forecasts are in jeopardy IMO.

I think the more aggressive calls are already in trouble. I saw LC is still going with a total of 14 named storms, 7 canes and 2 of those being majors. I suppose something like that is still possible but if things don't get started by Labor Day, then even calls like this one are in deep doo-doo. Then, I am going to be tasked with how does a LOW ACE year impact the upcoming winter instead of a high ACE situation? Ugh... always something, the weather is never easy.

On Social Media, DT is now stating that EAST of the Mississippi river, the big summer heat is now over! Is he right? Never say never in weather has always been my motto. If the CFS model is correct, we get another cool shot of air Labor Day weekend. Do the tropics change things up any? That's a big question mark going forward. To me the tropics would have a chance based on the 500 MB pattern to tug down some chilly air in September should a tropical system time out to merge with an incoming trough over the East. The low would move up the East Coast like a nor 'Easter in winter and we're on the backside of the circulation so we get the cool dry air from Canada as a result. I could see something like this happening in September. Why not? Make sense given the pattern if the timing is right and if the tropics can get going. The window of opportunity is short. By mid October, that should be about it as Autumn takes over in full swing by then. Seeing Larry Cosgrove as well talking about a potential -EPO / -AO by Halloween settling in and that would make for a cold November with some snow chances too if correct. Lots to keep an eye on over the next few months.

Coming back to reality now and the 12Z GFS still has that low on Sunday and Monday coming right at us with a band of rain as a result. Timing keeps bouncing around from the morning to the afternoon hours so the models aren't quite sure on the timing yet. I have been saying for the last 2 days now that I was thinking a morning event and I'm honestly going to stick with that. These northern stream systems usually do move faster then the models indicate as the polar westerlies are strong. Euro has been steady with the faster timing too (thru 0Z last night). So I'll roll with it. A wet Sunday morning, decent afternoon is my call. Lingering shower Monday then we will work on the timing of the next low next week once we get closer to it. A somewhat active pattern with shots of cool air is the current weather story for our local area. Sure we can see a normal high in the mid 80s ahead of a cold front but we immediately go back down into the 70s and L80s thereafter which is below avg for the time of year. Even by the beginning of Sept, L80s is still an avg high for us. So those are my short term and long term thoughts in this post. Let's hear from others. Your thoughts folks? Does anyone feel that some heat can make one more run? Or do you feel like DT, it's over?

77 / 50 at CVG... GORGEOUS!!! C of C day today and tomorrow folks! ENJOY IT!!! Weather is great for all plans and activities including the Boone Co Fair which I'll be at tomorrow afternoon and evening. 12Z Euro for Sunday continuing the AM timing as previously discussed. It actually brings rain chances in after midnight Sat night so POPS are needed then as well. No changes to my call. Amounts will be lighter due to AM timing vs if we had heating for t-storms. So will go with 0.25" or less most areas with this next system. Euro is bringing in a bit more on this run and lingering the action into early afternoon as well. 0.41" at CVG so my Low 70s for high call would be decent.

Great to see posts from DT. He is well with patterns more so than specific storms. I agree if he mentioned long term heat because you can always get a day or two above normal. Patterns over the past several years have been hard to change and a summer pattern can be very stubborn. If the tropical system gets going and it will to a certain extent the most likely is systems going up the east coast. Well days leading up to a stronger system is heights can go very high and you get some above normal temps for a few days. The vegetation though very green in many areas and not quite as much in others we are not in a drought and during September many longer term so called heat waves are with a drier ground and with that you tend to get rather fast increase in temps during the day but when that happens dew points are more in the 40's and 50's. Not sure if this answers the question but I believe chances are decent that long term heat is unlikely but a few days here and there is never off the table.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:09 pm Great to see posts from DT. He is well with patterns more so than specific storms. I agree if he mentioned long term heat because you can always get a day or two above normal. Patterns over the past several years have been hard to change and a summer pattern can be very stubborn. If the tropical system gets going and it will to a certain extent the most likely is systems going up the east coast. Well days leading up to a stronger system is heights can go very high and you get some above normal temps for a few days. The vegetation though very green in many areas and not quite as much in others we are not in a drought and during September many longer term so called heat waves are with a drier ground and with that you tend to get rather fast increase in temps during the day but when that happens dew points are more in the 40's and 50's. Not sure if this answers the question but I believe chances are decent that long term heat is unlikely but a few days here and there is never off the table.

A great answer Tim and I think we are on the same page yet again here. Been that way mostly this year and we've done pretty well.

It doesn't get any better for August guys. Dews... or lack thereof.

Good Evening and finally getting some nicer dew points down here in SC. Still hit 90 today so I don't care for that. Over the next week it really does look like a early to mid-September pattern which is very nice. Rainfall and when you get into the early fall pattern seldom do you get a lot of rain unless you get the tropics involved. So over the next week .025-.50 is probably what most folks will see.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:49 pm Good Evening and finally getting some nicer dew points down here in SC. Still hit 90 today so I don't care for that. Over the next week it really does look like a early to mid-September pattern which is very nice. Rainfall and when you get into the early fall pattern seldom do you get a lot of rain unless you get the tropics involved. So over the next week .025-.50 is probably what most folks will see.

Of course you guys are not done with the 90s down there yet, but are you guys seeing any relief with this new pattern? I would suspect a little better weather headed your way in SC. After Monday, I didn't see anything remotely close to 90 on the guidance. Mainly mid 80s. Not too bad!

Please post your morning lows folks. Anyone who has a weather station or home thermometer, please post, thanks! Hoping we see a lot of 50s and maybe an upper 40 north of Cincy in the sticks? I won't rule that out honestly by tomorrow morning. Enjoy the Free AC tonight. Back on the last page, 57 is my CVG call. Hope it's not too warm, probably should have went with 55.

Good Morning and so far CVG only has a low of 61. We see this quite often where outlying areas can be 5-7 degrees cooler. I thought 58 or 59 would be the lowest for CVG just because of how this has played out in the past. Going to be a beautiful day up there and hope everyone gets outside and enjoys the wonderful weather for mid-August.

Good morning folks! 57 here this morning. I think Lebanon got down to 50. Hope everyone has a great Saturday!! We will be tracking rain tomorrow morning so get outside and enjoy today!

54 in Somerville this morning

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A tad late but 58 was the morning low here inAmelia

Good morning all! We had a few sprinkles last night at the fair but overall nice weather. Rain is moving into the picture this morning as expected so a wet morning ahead. We'll stay in the 70s today with partly cloudy skies by this afternoon and only an isolated shower will be left by then.

This mornings rains have exceeded my expectations imby by quite a bit. Been getting periodic moderate rain for a while now.

Just a few hundredths here. 0.05" at CVG An underachieving system over this way but we've overachieved in the past week so we're good. Glad to see others who need it, get it!