Absolute Vorticity

We picked up 0.7 inches so far today. That is on top of the 2.6 from earlier this week.

So actually getting some sprinkles here now - def unexpected by me.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:43 pm A no go. Yard is just too wet still and slick in the backyard with the steep hill I have. The heck with it, having a beer instead. I'm on vacation anyway next week so why not.

When I return to work, I work a week then on vacation again the week leading up to the 4th of July to get things ready for my party. Isn't that an awesome work schedule?

My yard needs mowed as well and the light shower we had means try again tomorrow. Several chances the next few days so it may get a wee bit high come next week. LOL

I am actually going on vaca in a couple weeks to Tennessee with some friends. Their grandma owns a cabin by a lake so fishing, kayaking, hiking the whole works! And zero rental cost even better! Just worry about the $5 gas getting there.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:43 pm A no go. Yard is just too wet still and slick in the backyard with the steep hill I have. The heck with it, having a beer instead. I'm on vacation anyway next week so why not.

When I return to work, I work a week then on vacation again the week leading up to the 4th of July to get things ready for my party. Isn't that an awesome work schedule?

My yard needs mowed as well and the light shower we had means try again tomorrow. Several chances the next few days so it may get a wee bit high come next week. LOL

I am actually going on vaca in a couple weeks to Tennessee with some friends. Their grandma owns a cabin by a lake so fishing, kayaking, hiking the whole works! And zero rental cost even better! Just worry about the $5 gas getting there.

Awesome! Sounds like a great time minus the gas prices. I hope it isn't 6 bucks by then. It's 5 already.

Good morning all... a few showers are possible today as that light rain band form the SW moves NE in our direction and eventually falls apart. Highs in the 70s. T-storms likely overnight into Sun morning. How much can we heat up on Sunday for the potential MCS later on? Then maybe a Monday MCS with temps in the U80s. 90s for CVG Tues - Thurs still IMO unless MCS debris clouds stop us on Tues. Still like I-70 for Tues's potential MCS. Wed hot and dry everyone, possibly Thurs too before more storms move in with a cold front as we approach the end of next week. Lots to watch from t-storms to temps in the next week.

SPC has us under a marginal risk for Sun and now Mon as well due to possible MCS action.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:30 am SPC has us under a marginal risk for Sun and now Mon as well due to possible MCS action.

Good Morning Les. I agree and with the quick surge or hot air in the central plains I believe a MCS is likely and I believe rather intense. Plus one that forms will be able to travel a good deal us vegetation is lush and these can feed off that as they move east and southeast. So we have the leftover this afternoon and evening. Then both Sunday and Monday I believe we need to watch out anytime for a MCS or one that dies off and the afternoon will feed off the leftover from earlier in the day. I know the mid-level temps next week are high and if we were dry mid-90's would no doubt happen. But with the lush vegetation and if we get more rain the next 2-3 days then low 90's at best and even then that can be halted with a thunderstorm in the 12-2pm range or a leftover mcs that leaves its cloud clover longer than expected.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jun 11, 2022 9:36 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:30 am SPC has us under a marginal risk for Sun and now Mon as well due to possible MCS action.

Good Morning Les. I agree and with the quick surge or hot air in the central plains I believe a MCS is likely and I believe rather intense. Plus one that forms will be able to travel a good deal us vegetation is lush and these can feed off that as they move east and southeast. So we have the leftover this afternoon and evening. Then both Sunday and Monday I believe we need to watch out anytime for a MCS or one that dies off and the afternoon will feed off the leftover from earlier in the day. I know the mid-level temps next week are high and if we were dry mid-90's would no doubt happen. But with the lush vegetation and if we get more rain the next 2-3 days then low 90's at best and even then that can be halted with a thunderstorm in the 12-2pm range or a leftover mcs that leaves its cloud clover longer than expected.

Great post, Tim! Outflow boundaries are key as well as the boundary between the heat dome and the cooler air to the NE of us. MCS's will dive either SE or S depending on the angle of that boundary.

Even with the high sun angle clouds are very stubborn to break this morning. Should see some breaks this afternoon but any heating just brings back more clouds. I plan on finally burning the remaining wood I have from the trees that I either cut or they got thrown down by the storms. Then time to power wash the back patio probably on Monday and then get ready for some heat and humidity. Lucky my basement is under ground and feels so nice especially when temps get in the upper 80's and lower 90's.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jun 11, 2022 11:05 am Even with the high sun angle clouds are very stubborn to break this morning. Should see some breaks this afternoon but any heating just brings back more clouds. I plan on finally burning the remaining wood I have from the trees that I either cut or they got thrown down by the storms. Then time to power wash the back patio probably on Monday and then get ready for some heat and humidity. Lucky my basement is under ground and feels so nice especially when temps get in the upper 80's and lower 90's.

Same with my basement Tim. It gets a bit chilly in the winter but in the summer it feels awesome! Plan on working on my fireworks some more today. Mowing... well with the rain we got overnight. Looks doubtful. We'll see I guess.

Picked up a tenth of an inch from Fri night / early Sat morning.

Currently 72 here in G'ville.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:12 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 6:59 am Good Morning Les and I decided to turn off the A/C for a day but that will end. You have the forecast in great shape. Just looked at the NWS forecast for CVG,LOU and INDY to see the forecast high temps for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Lou went down one degree one day,CVG went down one degree both days and Indy already down 2 degrees. Still believe they will continue to come down a few more degrees. Hopefully the nice little heat spell only last 3 days or so . I will not call this a heat wave but sure some media folks will.

Good morning Tim! I laugh at the term heat wave and the way it is used. The official NWS definition nowadays are 3 days in a row at or above 90. I mean seriously? that is like normal summer time weather for a lot of the country. I think a week of it then yeah it is a heat wave, but only 3 days? Sigh... anyway enough that BS. Anyway Tim, we're on the same page again. Like the numbers we've got going and I am still watching the potential for storms as the heat tries to build in Sunday / Monday time period. Models aren't showing a lot here but I am thinking outside the box so we'll see if I need to adjust or if the models adjust (as they should, if our ideas are right).

Yesterday evening I heard chief met Brian Davis on WDTN say heat wave.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 11, 2022 11:26 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jun 11, 2022 11:05 am Even with the high sun angle clouds are very stubborn to break this morning. Should see some breaks this afternoon but any heating just brings back more clouds. I plan on finally burning the remaining wood I have from the trees that I either cut or they got thrown down by the storms. Then time to power wash the back patio probably on Monday and then get ready for some heat and humidity. Lucky my basement is under ground and feels so nice especially when temps get in the upper 80's and lower 90's.

Same with my basement Tim. It gets a bit chilly in the winter but in the summer it feels awesome! Plan on working on my fireworks some more today. Mowing... well with the rain we got overnight. Looks doubtful. We'll see I guess.

Same with my folks and my basement, too.

77 here today and I got the grass in! It was still wet but got it done. Radar shows some action coming in for the I-70 Crew right now... non severe... and the rest of us will see some of it too later on tonight into early tomorrow morning. A break then we'll see how the rest of Sunday unfolds tomorrow morning while we have our coffee.

----

A true sign of summer.... Lightning bugs! I am seeing them now! Anyone else? I mean as a kid, who did not go outside and catch them? Then you put them in a jar and poke small holes in the lid so they don't die. A home-made nightlight! Loved it!

And for the ladies out there... You had glowing make-up for your faces, am I right?

Had a few in the back yard for the last two weeks. But not many, trying to remember when they normally appear.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Sat Jun 11, 2022 9:42 pm Had a few in the back yard for the last two weeks. But not many, trying to remember when they normally appear.

Typically June for my hood so I'd say it's about right on schedule.

Good morning all and a Happy Sunday to each of you. CVG picked up 0.16" overnight and a couple of tenths here as well. The humidity is back in full force so we are going to be tracking strong to possibly severe storms later on today. Same deal for late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Then the "heat" of course takes center stage for a few days after that.

Below are the current thoughts from the boys over the next couple of days:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Convectively-enhanced short wave in the upper Mississippi
Valley early this morning will dive southeast into the area. In
addition, a weak front will be sliding east southeast. This will
lead to more showers and thunderstorms moving across the
forecast area during the day. CAPE is forecast to reach
1000-1500 J/kg and shear will be increasing. So some strong to
severe storms will be possible. Wind is the primary threat.

Although there will be some sun, expect enough cloud cover and
precipitation coverage during peak heating to keep highs in the
lower 80s in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
While there is uncertainty in timing convection, it appears that
the initial daytime activity may be moving out of the forecast
area at the beginning of the period. But high resolution
guidance has been indicating that after a brief lull, additional
showers and storms may develop within the same corridor during
the evening and continue into the overnight before finally
coming to an end.

It appears that the effective surface front will sink through
much of the forecast area tonight. This boundary will lift back
north across the area on Monday. Cannot completely rule out a
few storms during the day although they would likely be elevated
given warm lower layers. There is some potential for a
convective system to move into northwest counties late in the
day. If that can occur, then that would be surface-based and
tap into very strong instability. However, convective evolution
for Monday from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley is highly uncertain. Damaging winds would be the primary
threat, but this is highly conditional on whether and where
storms occur.

Radar this morning shows clusters of t-storms firing up over ILL and IN. Most everything is scattered. A touch of sun imby right now so with a little heating, more storms are going to pop up and develop and move ESE along that same corridor and into our area as well. We'll have to see how much CAPE we can get. 500 J/kg currently and the bulk shear is at 40 knots so we're good there for storm organization. I don't think the severe threat is going to get too crazy since we don't have a lot of heating going on thanks to clouds / storms being around however isolated severe wx is absolutely on the table with winds the primary threat. Small hail also possible. Tornado threat is extremely low.

12Z ILN sounding has a convective temp of 78 today so it's not going to take much heating for more storms to fire.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 11, 2022 9:10 pm A true sign of summer.... Lightning bugs! I am seeing them now! Anyone else? I mean as a kid, who did not go outside and catch them? Then you put them in a jar and poke small holes in the lid so they don't die. A home-made nightlight! Loved it!

And for the ladies out there... You had glowing make-up for your faces, am I right?

Yes they tend to start coming out around mid-June and usually peak just before the 4th of July.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jun 12, 2022 9:37 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 11, 2022 9:10 pm A true sign of summer.... Lightning bugs! I am seeing them now! Anyone else? I mean as a kid, who did not go outside and catch them? Then you put them in a jar and poke small holes in the lid so they don't die. A home-made nightlight! Loved it!

And for the ladies out there... You had glowing make-up for your faces, am I right?

Yes they tend to start coming out around mid-June and usually peak just before the 4th of July.

Good morning Tim and thanks for the info! I didn't see a bunch so I think they are just getting started here imby.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 12, 2022 9:27 am Radar this morning shows clusters of t-storms firing up over ILL and IN. Most everything is scattered. A touch of sun imby right now so with a little heating, more storms are going to pop up and develop and move ESE along that same corridor and into our area as well. We'll have to see how much CAPE we can get. 500 J/kg currently and the bulk shear is at 40 knots so we're good there for storm organization. I don't think the severe threat is going to get too crazy since we don't have a lot of heating going on thanks to clouds / storms being around however isolated severe wx is absolutely on the table with winds the primary threat. Small hail also possible. Tornado threat is extremely low.

12Z ILN sounding has a convective temp of 78 today so it's not going to take much heating for more storms to fire.

Good Morning Les. I believe your forecast looks great and the most important part is the convective temp of 78. I agree that should not be a problem at all. Severe threat looks to be isolated like you mentioned but one can fire up but agree tornado threat is very low and nothing like we had the other day. Monday looks similar but do we a complex hit overnight into the early morning which can keep cloud cover around in the morning hours or do we miss the mcs and start out sunny and temps rise quick but we get into some decent afternoon showers and thundershowers. Then how high do we go with temps. Tuesday may be the worse in terms of heat index as dew points look to be in the low 70's so getting the heat index in the mid and upper 90's look possible. Wednesday may have the highest temp and though models are lowering dew points I am not sold on those lowering that much in our area. Probably dew points 68-72 on Wednesday and Thursday. I still believe with the lush vegetation and if we get more rain the next two days that temps will end up in the 88-92 range. I still believe we can produce a shower on Tuesday and Wednesday and if that happens in the 1-3pm time period my guess this would keep temps in the lower range.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jun 12, 2022 9:46 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 12, 2022 9:27 am Radar this morning shows clusters of t-storms firing up over ILL and IN. Most everything is scattered. A touch of sun imby right now so with a little heating, more storms are going to pop up and develop and move ESE along that same corridor and into our area as well. We'll have to see how much CAPE we can get. 500 J/kg currently and the bulk shear is at 40 knots so we're good there for storm organization. I don't think the severe threat is going to get too crazy since we don't have a lot of heating going on thanks to clouds / storms being around however isolated severe wx is absolutely on the table with winds the primary threat. Small hail also possible. Tornado threat is extremely low.

12Z ILN sounding has a convective temp of 78 today so it's not going to take much heating for more storms to fire.

Good Morning Les. I believe your forecast looks great and the most important part is the convective temp of 78. I agree that should not be a problem at all. Severe threat looks to be isolated like you mentioned but one can fire up but agree tornado threat is very low and nothing like we had the other day. Monday looks similar but do we a complex hit overnight into the early morning which can keep cloud cover around in the morning hours or do we miss the mcs and start out sunny and temps rise quick but we get into some decent afternoon showers and thundershowers. Then how high do we go with temps. Tuesday may be the worse in terms of heat index as dew points look to be in the low 70's so getting the heat index in the mid and upper 90's look possible. Wednesday may have the highest temp and though models are lowering dew points I am not sold on those lowering that much in our area. Probably dew points 68-72 on Wednesday and Thursday. I still believe with the lush vegetation and if we get more rain the next two days that temps will end up in the 88-92 range. I still believe we can produce a shower on Tuesday and Wednesday and if that happens in the 1-3pm time period my guess this would keep temps in the lower range.

Tim, I think storm chances today are high. Tomorrow is more uncertain due to the reasons you've already mentioned. Still wondering on Tues if the I-70 Crew gets anything... we will be dry. I think Wed is dry for all then storm chances begin slowly on Thurs with likely on Fri as the front clears the area. Temp wise... we are and have always been in solid agreement there for next week.

Hey Les. We have been on the same page for the last few weeks which is always a good sign in terms of getting the forecast correct. Tuesday and Wednesday I am still throwing out a chance of a shower or thundershower especially the further southeast you live. With these kinds of setups you can get the app mountains form these thundershowers and they can sort of move west. I have seen this in the past and I believe that is another reason that you see the models keeping eastern Kentucky somewhat cooler in comparison to central and eastern Ky. Yes I believe much of the time those two days are dry but I am adding a slight risk here locally and with lush vegetation this can help in fueling those isolated thundershowers.