Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:46 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:13 am So far just a ground wetter here

Counted about 12 drops. That's been it. Cloudy skies attm. Seeing some breaks S of me but if our skies don't change, the severe threat is going to be just about dead. I question the heavy rain too if we cannot get a little heating going to keep it sustained. Dews are rising up into the 50s now so we're trying to saturate the column a little bit now. Deeper moisture so far is still west over the STL area.

Not to concerned about excessive rainfall in cvgland. As you mentioned, return moisture in our area and points south and even SW aren't impressive, there's not a big contrast in air masses for an excessive rain event

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 12:08 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:46 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:13 am So far just a ground wetter here

Counted about 12 drops. That's been it. Cloudy skies attm. Seeing some breaks S of me but if our skies don't change, the severe threat is going to be just about dead. I question the heavy rain too if we cannot get a little heating going to keep it sustained. Dews are rising up into the 50s now so we're trying to saturate the column a little bit now. Deeper moisture so far is still west over the STL area.

Not to concerned about excessive rainfall in cvgland. As you mentioned, return moisture in our area and points south and even SW aren't impressive, there's not a big contrast in air masses for an excessive rain event

Today I agree but Thursday evening with the warm front may be a period with some decent rainfall amounts. Temps south of the front over the next 2-3 days will be in the 90's so that may be enough fuel to set up some heavy amounts in a short period. Bgoney, I believe this has never been a widespread heavy rain event but if you are in the wrong place and get several rounds of get stuck under a thunderstorm that sits for a few hours is where you can have the problem. No way a model can see that more than maybe 4-6 hours away and that may be to long of a period.

Late morning update from the boys... pretty much echoes our concerns.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low level flow starting to become more amplified as the
shortwave trough approaches the region from the southwest. Have
increased chances for showers through the remainder of the
morning especially across areas near and north of I70. With the
increase in showers in this area, high temps have been tweaked a
bit lower especially across the north. While there will be a
bit of a lull in activity especially across the south and east,
latest trends among most of the HREF members indicate this will
be pretty brief with the approach of the decaying MCS complex
expected to advance and reach especially the southern forecast
area this afternoon. Had also expected a few breaks/thin spots
in the cloud cover to assist in creating some late morning/early
afternoon instability (though elevated in nature). Visible
satellite imagery not supporting this at this time. Will
continue to monitor, but will likely cut chances for
thunderstorms a little further south for this afternoon, mainly
south of the I-70 corridor.

Haven`t really adjusted the precip chances through 00z, but
tweaked timing of the MCS slightly slower than previous
forecast, with the expected weakening trend already very
apparant. With previous indications of increased elevated
instability seemingly now more muted over the ILN forecast
area, the main focus for storms will be further south into KY,
with MUCAPE over the ILN area marginal at best. However, still
expecting an enhanced LLJ this afternoon, which could aid in
strengthening some storms south of the Ohio River.

You can see that little tail N of Evansville. That's really the only item of interest to watch to see if we get any storms from it, or does that remain to our south over KY, which is probably the most likely outcome since we cannot get any real heating going today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 1:01 pm You can see that little tail N of Evansville. That's really the only item of interest to watch to see if we get any storms from it, or does that remain to our south over KY, which is probably the most likely outcome since we cannot get any real heating going today.

Exactly Les and you can also see some moisture coming up from southern Kentucky trying to get involved. We are on the border of getting in on some decent action later this afternoon and though it may not be severe we stand a good chance of getting some rainfall.

Seeing a touch more sun now Tim, we'll see I guess. Some weak CAPE is trying to build in S of the River so let's see what happens for our hoods there Tim. It isn't much CAPE, we need more heating and better dews here honestly. 59 for the dew at CVG, way up from 49 this morning. But we do need more. Wind shear is decent... 60 knots over Central Ky, we've got 40 knots for us, not bad.

We'll see what happens!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 2:10 pm Seeing a touch more sun now Tim, we'll see I guess. Some weak CAPE is trying to build in S of the River so let's see what happens for our hoods there Tim. It isn't much CAPE, we need more heating and better dews here honestly. 59 for the dew at CVG, way up from 49 this morning. But we do need more. Wind shear is decent... 60 knots over Central Ky, we've got 40 knots for us, not bad.

We'll see what happens!

Les the timing though this time may help as we approach the 4p-9pm time period. I always look at the 4a-9am and 4p-9pm as peak times.

12z Euro now delays the front until midday / early afternoon on Sunday. If correct, we'd get back to back hot / humid days on both Fri and Sat.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 2:14 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 2:10 pm Seeing a touch more sun now Tim, we'll see I guess. Some weak CAPE is trying to build in S of the River so let's see what happens for our hoods there Tim. It isn't much CAPE, we need more heating and better dews here honestly. 59 for the dew at CVG, way up from 49 this morning. But we do need more. Wind shear is decent... 60 knots over Central Ky, we've got 40 knots for us, not bad.

We'll see what happens!

Les the timing though this time may help as we approach the 4p-9pm time period. I always look at the 4a-9am and 4p-9pm as peak times.

This time of year, agree. 4p-9p is peak heating.

Radar over S IN is busy. We'll just have to see how that MCS tracks to see if we cash in or does it miss us with the best rains to the south. The best chance for severe will of course be across the south.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 2:29 pm 12z Euro now delays the front until midday / early afternoon on Sunday. If correct, we'd get back to back hot / humid days on both Fri and Sat.

I saw that and raised my temp for Saturday to 90. Starting out with lows probably above 70 and will not take much sun to see those temps head towards the 90 degree mark.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 2:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 2:29 pm 12z Euro now delays the front until midday / early afternoon on Sunday. If correct, we'd get back to back hot / humid days on both Fri and Sat.

I saw that and raised my temp for Saturday to 90. Starting out with lows probably above 70 and will not take much sun to see those temps head towards the 90 degree mark.

I was going with 85 on Sat as of this morning. Going to stay in the 80s for now. I'd like to see another run or two to see if that holds or does it come back around to early Sun morning for the frontal passage.

It looks like any strong or severe t-storms (ATTM anyway) looks to stay south of us over Central KY. Mod rain through is going to try and push in from the West as the afternoon goes on. Could be a slow PM commute in some areas, esp Western counties.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 3:24 pm It looks like any strong or severe t-storms (ATTM anyway) looks to stay south of us over Central KY. Mod rain through is going to try and push in from the West as the afternoon goes on. Could be a slow PM commute in some areas, esp Western counties.

I agree Les and I do expect some isolated warnings over the next 3-4 hours in central and southern Kentucky

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 3:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 3:24 pm It looks like any strong or severe t-storms (ATTM anyway) looks to stay south of us over Central KY. Mod rain through is going to try and push in from the West as the afternoon goes on. Could be a slow PM commute in some areas, esp Western counties.

I agree Les and I do expect some isolated warnings over the next 3-4 hours in central and southern Kentucky

Agree... from near or close to the I-64 corridor on south.

EDIT: It may even occur more to the SE from there. Radar trends suggest that strong line is making more of a SE dive now... it looks like it is going to ride a nice instability gradient to our SW.

I am seeing some very light rain now ...

I hit 75 just after 3pm. Light rain and 72 now with a dew of 63. Not going to see much out of this decaying MCS unfortunately. One mod pocket might move thru that's about it.

Be nice to get a quarterish of rain for the newly planted garden, but I don't know if it's going to squeeze that out tonight or not

Just some light rain here - about as exciting as it gets anymore lol

I'm up to 0.43" of liquid goodness here! A nice drink for the lawn and young plants! Temp has fallen to 64. CVG checking in with 0.39" as of 7:10pm. 63 currently there. I may tack on a couple more hundredths before it's over with.

Good Evening and just about 1/2 inch which is perfect. Like to see that 2 more times over the next 72 hours.

Seen one tornado warning near Corbin and a severe weather warning nearby as well. So yes very isolated but you must add to the forecast.

.35" here , great for the garden. Much needed before our couple days of hotness

Mods are having an understandable tough time of figuring out where or when the warm front turns active for later today and overnight. Severe chance for cvgland is still quite low compared to Louisville and South. Hoping to see another .25-.75" for most of our local area with a few isolated spots that get a t-shower or two reaching .75-1.50" .

I agree Bgoney and Tim.... some nice rainfall going into the 2 day hot stretch! As a result of the rain, dense fog has formed in some areas and my hood is one of them. Be careful traveling this morning. Otherwise, some sun is coming and the mid 80s with isolated storms possible this evening. Northern areas may get an MCS tonight into early Fri. The rest of us should bake nicely on Fri. Isolated action Sat with the heat and then storms likely Sat night and Sunday with the frontal passage. The front has slowed down to a Sunday passage thus a warmer Sat. Back to back 89'ed or 90 are possible at CVG.