Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:01 pm
A good run from the gfs with a slightly further south low and weaker but somewhat faster.
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Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Page 17 of 78
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:02 pm
Heavy snow now Thurs evening thru into Thurs night towards NKY and folks SE of I-71/ Noticing a quicker exit to the system on this run. That's been an odd trend today.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:03 pm
Really it's the upper level piece back across OK. Earlier at 12Z, it held on to that feature and snow lingered all day Fri to add on a few inches. It's done by Fri morning from NW to SE because some models now shred the upper low's energy and we lose that piece so a faster ending.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:04 pm
Very good run. plenty juicy at the changeover to snow Thurs evening, for those that see it.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:05 pm
GFS is definityl the one we want, 850s crash much sooner
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:07 pm
GFS / UKIE are the snowiest options. CMC, RGEM, NAM are the ice and sleet options.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:25 pm
18Z GFS Text Data
NOTE: If you need another location, give me the airport code and I'll see if the model has info for it. Thanks.
Code: Select all
CVG
THU 06Z 03-FEB -1.3 2.8 1023 94 96 0.22 563 545
THU 12Z 03-FEB -3.9 2.0 1025 94 97 0.23 564 544
THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.1 1.0 1023 95 99 0.58 564 546
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -6.4 -3.0 1026 95 98 0.80 563 543
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -7.2 -4.4 1029 93 92 0.18 562 540
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -10.3 -4.4 1030 93 86 0.02 560 537
HAO
THU 06Z 03-FEB -2.8 1.9 1024 93 97 0.25 562 543
THU 12Z 03-FEB -4.7 0.7 1025 94 98 0.24 563 543
THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.5 -0.5 1024 94 98 0.53 563 544
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -6.8 -3.9 1027 94 97 0.71 562 541
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -7.8 -5.0 1029 90 84 0.13 561 538
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -11.3 -5.1 1031 91 68 0.01 559 536
MGY
THU 06Z 03-FEB -3.6 1.4 1024 94 98 0.25 561 543
THU 12Z 03-FEB -5.1 -1.2 1026 94 98 0.26 562 542
THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.9 -1.5 1025 94 98 0.49 562 543
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -7.2 -4.4 1027 94 97 0.67 562 541
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -8.3 -5.3 1029 90 85 0.12 560 538
DAY
THU 06Z 03-FEB -4.5 0.1 1025 94 98 0.28 561 541
THU 12Z 03-FEB -5.8 -3.5 1027 94 98 0.27 561 540
THU 18Z 03-FEB -6.3 -3.5 1026 94 98 0.48 561 541
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -7.6 -5.3 1028 93 96 0.56 561 539
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -9.1 -5.9 1030 90 83 0.09 560 537
CMH
THU 06Z 03-FEB -1.9 1.5 1024 91 98 0.20 561 543
THU 12Z 03-FEB -4.1 -0.7 1026 94 97 0.22 562 542
THU 18Z 03-FEB -4.8 -1.5 1025 95 98 0.44 562 543
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -7.1 -3.8 1027 94 98 0.66 562 541
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -8.1 -5.1 1028 93 93 0.22 561 539
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -9.9 -6.0 1030 92 65 0.01 559 536
FGX
THU 12Z 03-FEB 0.4 4.8 1022 97 95 0.14 566 548
THU 18Z 03-FEB -2.3 4.2 1021 96 100 0.53 566 550
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -4.6 1.8 1023 95 99 0.89 566 548
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -6.8 -1.2 1026 96 99 0.46 565 544
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -7.8 -2.2 1028 94 98 0.13 563 541
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -5.1 -3.8 1029 93 96 0.07 560 538
SAT 00Z 05-FEB -8.5 -5.5 1032 97 83 0.03 557 533
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:27 pm
18Z GEFS... all members but about 5, change CVG over from rain to frz rain Wed night about 1am. The other five are a little slower. Def noticing the upper low dying so we're done by Fri morning at the latest most areas. Thurs night around 1am for some of us too. This is backing the OP run nicely.
EDIT: Only about 2 or 3 have the upper low lingering snow all day Fri so that trend unfortunately is waning.
EDIT: Only about 2 or 3 have the upper low lingering snow all day Fri so that trend unfortunately is waning.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:28 pm
Les, I never know how to read these things. Can you tell me in layman’s terms what the Middletown area will look like roughly from Weds midnight through Friday morning around 10 am?tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:25 pm 18Z GFS Text Data
NOTE: If you need another location, give me the airport code and I'll see if the model has info for it. Thanks.Code: Select all
CVG THU 06Z 03-FEB -1.3 2.8 1023 94 96 0.22 563 545 THU 12Z 03-FEB -3.9 2.0 1025 94 97 0.23 564 544 THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.1 1.0 1023 95 99 0.58 564 546 FRI 00Z 04-FEB -6.4 -3.0 1026 95 98 0.80 563 543 FRI 06Z 04-FEB -7.2 -4.4 1029 93 92 0.18 562 540 FRI 12Z 04-FEB -10.3 -4.4 1030 93 86 0.02 560 537 HAO THU 06Z 03-FEB -2.8 1.9 1024 93 97 0.25 562 543 THU 12Z 03-FEB -4.7 0.7 1025 94 98 0.24 563 543 THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.5 -0.5 1024 94 98 0.53 563 544 FRI 00Z 04-FEB -6.8 -3.9 1027 94 97 0.71 562 541 FRI 06Z 04-FEB -7.8 -5.0 1029 90 84 0.13 561 538 FRI 12Z 04-FEB -11.3 -5.1 1031 91 68 0.01 559 536 MGY THU 06Z 03-FEB -3.6 1.4 1024 94 98 0.25 561 543 THU 12Z 03-FEB -5.1 -1.2 1026 94 98 0.26 562 542 THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.9 -1.5 1025 94 98 0.49 562 543 FRI 00Z 04-FEB -7.2 -4.4 1027 94 97 0.67 562 541 FRI 06Z 04-FEB -8.3 -5.3 1029 90 85 0.12 560 538 DAY THU 06Z 03-FEB -4.5 0.1 1025 94 98 0.28 561 541 THU 12Z 03-FEB -5.8 -3.5 1027 94 98 0.27 561 540 THU 18Z 03-FEB -6.3 -3.5 1026 94 98 0.48 561 541 FRI 00Z 04-FEB -7.6 -5.3 1028 93 96 0.56 561 539 FRI 06Z 04-FEB -9.1 -5.9 1030 90 83 0.09 560 537 CMH THU 06Z 03-FEB -1.9 1.5 1024 91 98 0.20 561 543 THU 12Z 03-FEB -4.1 -0.7 1026 94 97 0.22 562 542 THU 18Z 03-FEB -4.8 -1.5 1025 95 98 0.44 562 543 FRI 00Z 04-FEB -7.1 -3.8 1027 94 98 0.66 562 541 FRI 06Z 04-FEB -8.1 -5.1 1028 93 93 0.22 561 539 FRI 12Z 04-FEB -9.9 -6.0 1030 92 65 0.01 559 536 FGX THU 12Z 03-FEB 0.4 4.8 1022 97 95 0.14 566 548 THU 18Z 03-FEB -2.3 4.2 1021 96 100 0.53 566 550 FRI 00Z 04-FEB -4.6 1.8 1023 95 99 0.89 566 548 FRI 06Z 04-FEB -6.8 -1.2 1026 96 99 0.46 565 544 FRI 12Z 04-FEB -7.8 -2.2 1028 94 98 0.13 563 541 FRI 18Z 04-FEB -5.1 -3.8 1029 93 96 0.07 560 538 SAT 00Z 05-FEB -8.5 -5.5 1032 97 83 0.03 557 533
Thank so much!!!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:32 pm
Too bad we lost the great tutorial I posted on the old forum.wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:28 pm
Les, I never know how to read these things. Can you tell me in layman’s terms what the Middletown area will look like roughly from Weds midnight through Friday morning around 10 am?
Thank so much!!!
It was great! Anybody save a copy? Otherwise this will have to do:First column is 2M temps in Celsius - You want it to be below zero to be below freezing at the surface where we are.
Second column is 850 MB temps. You want it to be below zero for snow.
Third column is surface pressure in MB
Forth column is surface relative humidity
Fifth column is 700 MB humidity or 700 MB Moisture
Sixth column is 6 hour QPF in inches
Seventh column is 500 MB height in decameters
Eighth column is 500 Mb thickness. You want it below 540 for snow
So what is snow, sleet, and freezing rain?
2M temps have to be near or below zero in all cases (for the most part to keep this simple).
Snow - 850s below zero and 500 thicknesses less then 540
Sleet - 850s below zero but 500 is above 540
Freezing rain - 850s above zero and 500 is above 540
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:37 pm
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:39 pm
18Z GEFS Mean for Snow 10:1 - Awesome Signal!
GFS and GEFS / UKIE aren't budging yet. NAM, RGEM, CMC< and Euro are more north and icy / sleety. Which solution is gonna give? 18Z Euro runs at 7pm and we will cover that later.
GFS and GEFS / UKIE aren't budging yet. NAM, RGEM, CMC< and Euro are more north and icy / sleety. Which solution is gonna give? 18Z Euro runs at 7pm and we will cover that later.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:48 pm
I am prepared for this storm now... just had some girl scout cookies delivered to my door! The peanut butter ones covered in chocolate are my all time fav! 
The peanut butter ones covered in chocolate are my all time fav! Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:12 pm
That GFS run for my hood is insane - 6+ snow and 1+ ice - yikes! Cut that in half and still...yikes!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:17 pm
Definitely a noticeable shift south. Nice.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:29 pm
This is one time that I want the king to be wrong.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:50 pm
Les, at what point do a certain 2 rappers that appear on absolutevorticity in the winter make their grand entrances?
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:04 pm
Where are you?BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:12 pm That GFS run for my hood is insane - 6+ snow and 1+ ice - yikes! Cut that in half and still...yikes!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:08 pm
Brown County - Ripley, OHcincy bud wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:04 pmWhere are you?BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:12 pm That GFS run for my hood is insane - 6+ snow and 1+ ice - yikes! Cut that in half and still...yikes!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:33 pm
18z EU looks about the same as it's 12z
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:39 pm
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:43 pm
Changeover Thurs morning at CVG per the 18Z Euro. Big ice then touch of snow. Here's the text data.
Code: Select all
CVG
THU 12Z 03-FEB 0.0 4.7 1020 98 87 0.29 563 548
THU 18Z 03-FEB -1.2 4.4 1018 97 99 0.69 564 550
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -3.9 0.0 1022 92 96 0.38 563 546
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -5.6 -3.5 1026 82 98 0.13 560 540
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -7.8 -6.2 1030 79 96 0.02 558 535
HAO
THU 12Z 03-FEB -0.9 3.7 1021 95 93 0.26 563 546
THU 18Z 03-FEB -1.8 3.3 1019 91 98 0.65 563 548
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -4.4 -1.3 1023 86 97 0.36 562 544
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -6.2 -4.2 1026 82 96 0.10 559 539
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -8.8 -6.7 1030 81 93 0.02 557 533
MGY
THU 12Z 03-FEB -1.5 2.9 1022 94 94 0.23 562 545
THU 18Z 03-FEB -2.3 2.8 1020 91 97 0.63 562 547
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -5.0 -1.7 1023 86 98 0.37 561 543
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -6.8 -4.4 1026 84 94 0.09 559 539
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -9.0 -6.8 1030 82 91 0.02 556 533
DAY
THU 06Z 03-FEB 0.4 2.3 1021 96 93 0.36 561 545
THU 12Z 03-FEB -2.4 1.7 1023 92 94 0.23 562 544
THU 18Z 03-FEB -3.3 1.7 1020 91 98 0.60 562 545
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -5.8 -2.6 1024 88 98 0.36 561 542
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -7.5 -5.0 1027 86 92 0.07 558 537
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -9.9 -7.3 1031 84 86 0.02 555 532
CMH
THU 12Z 03-FEB -0.6 2.9 1022 94 97 0.19 563 545
THU 18Z 03-FEB -1.1 4.1 1019 93 99 0.58 562 547
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -3.6 -0.3 1022 89 98 0.51 562 545
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -6.3 -3.6 1025 86 95 0.15 560 540
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -8.1 -6.2 1029 82 91 0.04 557 534
FGX
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -1.0 4.8 1019 98 98 0.72 566 551
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -3.9 0.2 1024 94 100 0.40 564 546
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -5.6 -4.2 1028 80 90 0.11 561 540
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:47 pm
I will say it again, go GFS!!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:49 pm
Here's the snow weenie map....
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:50 pm
Somebody is going to blink tonight or tomorrow.