Absolute Vorticity

Regarding overnight Saturday into early Sunday trying to get a grasp of how low we can go. Most of the snow and ice cover will be gone but if we clear out and the winds dies down I could see lows around 10 degrees

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:38 pm Regarding overnight Saturday into early Sunday trying to a grasp of how low we can go. Most of the snow and ice cover will be gone but if we clear out and the winds dies down I could see lows around 10 degrees

ILN had 10-15 last time I looked and that looked good to me.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:39 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:38 pm Regarding overnight Saturday into early Sunday trying to a grasp of how low we can go. Most of the snow and ice cover will be gone but if we clear out and the winds dies down I could see lows around 10 degrees

ILN had 10-15 last time I looked and that looked good to me.

Thanks Les and always forget to look at their forecast which could help me out lol

Mid 50s out there now. Radar shows the rain closing in on us so it won't be long now. It does look light IMO.

today in Fargo

Just to much dry air and rainfall total a bust by me. Next week and interesting system and models are many many miles apart with the gfs furthest north and cmc furthest south. Still no blocking but the problem is these lows have tons of moisture but they are not getting really strong so you get that southwest to northeast band of precip. No doubt it will be mild enough for rain when it starts Thursday but lets see future runs to see if the low stays further south and allows colder air to work into the system before its out of town. Still getting these highs to form in Canada and until that changes colder air will work its way southward and if the pna stays neutral of slightly positive then winter weather is still on the table. Mjo and I believe that is one of the causes with how the system next week and the pattern beyond is causing conflicts. There is no true sign of any long term warmth or cold but just a back and forth until the end of the month. Weekend models will be fun to watch as we are still about 4-5 days until the storm really starts to get itself together. Really best case locally is a steady rain over 24 hours that brings between 1- 1 1/2 inches.

Even my 0.10" call is dead lol Only a trace here. Great news for Joe's plans tonight!

GFS continues to be most aggressive with the SB Clipper. 0.05" now at CVG 1/2" now on the 18Z GEFS mean as well. Not a lot of model support for this but you know. Euro and CMC don't have anything. Can't get a good NAM'ing going. Last SREF plume I saw for the 15Z run had a snowfall mean of 0.10" for CVG. RGEM shreds the s/w over S ILL. UKIE weakens it as it moves in and completely falls apart over us so hit or miss snow showers.

Good Morning and a nice mid-FEB weekend in store. Could see a few flurries and maybe a tiny bit of light snow on Sunday and just enough to see a very light dusting. Next week we start to warm only to be slammed by a nice system mid-week. The gfs has caved to the other models and much further southeast with the system. What does that mean locally and first it really nixes the severe threat. Saying that some heavy rain is possible and with the remaining snow melt an little vegetation the streams can fill up nicely. The good thing is the system itself is rather progressive though tons of moisture so getting over an 1inch seems possible and where does the heaviest of rainfall set up and probably near us. Will we see any winter weather and time will tell on this but expect another shot of cold air after the system. What we are seeing with the long term models is warmth 10 days out but once we get closer colder returns to the models. This will continue as we see high pressure still building in Canada and still tons of cold air available. Once we see a stormier Canada then a better chance for long term mild period.

GFS is gung-ho the next couple weeks for a bevy of panhandle hookers strutting through the middle of the country to the great lakes region. A nice battle the second half of FEB setting up between a developing -pna or NW pac trough and a developing SE ridge, hence the PHH pattern. Neither one looks to get to strong the next 10-14 days , but temp wise we should average slightly above normal the second half of FEB

Euro and GFS are in pretty good agreement for some big time winds for the Wed/Thu time period. Widespread advisory to warning level winds. Something to watch.

Icy mix here in G'ville and 27 degrees.

Cloudy and 30 here. Running errands this morning. Will be back to talk weather soon!

Light snow shower has covered the pavement.

Decent little batch of snow showers dropping south thru Indiana. Some folks could see what Bo posted this afternoon if your location can get under it.

12Z GFS continues the drift south with the Thurs system. Low now tracks just over us. Rain changing to snow now for Indiana and perhaps even Dayton posters. Could use another bump south for more of us to get into the game there. Interesting trends that you all have already been noting on the forum. Well it's continuing.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:11 am 12Z GFS continues the drift south with the Thurs system. Low now tracks just over us. Rain changing to snow now for Indiana and perhaps even Dayton posters. Could use another bump south for more of us to get into the game there. Interesting trends that you all have already been noting on the forum. Well it's continuing.

Les if this continues we may need to give the CMC a score on this forecast

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:18 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:11 am 12Z GFS continues the drift south with the Thurs system. Low now tracks just over us. Rain changing to snow now for Indiana and perhaps even Dayton posters. Could use another bump south for more of us to get into the game there. Interesting trends that you all have already been noting on the forum. Well it's continuing.

Les if this continues we may need to give the CMC a score on this forecast

Yeah... 0Z CMC had the low weak and popping late in WV so we did not see a lot of cold sector precip on that run. Good track, but it got going too late so we couldn't get a lot of moisture thrown back into the cold air. 12Z CMC running now so we'll see what it does here shortly.

Tim... is it me or has the speed of this system also increased? It's almost like now, the cold front moves in Thurs morning to midday Thurs. Not good for severe wx at all. You'd want the low to cut towards IND or Chicagoland and have the front coming in later. Not the case here with the trends. Weaker, faster, more SE. I'm not forecasting snow, but if the trends continue, we may need to throw it in there in the coming days for somebody in AV Country.

EDIT: If memory serves, when this system first came into La La Land on the GFS in the Day 12-16 range, it was originally a winter storm for us and not 60 and rainy. I'd say we will end up in the middle someplace. I can see 60 ahead of the front on Wed for sure, but not on Thursday any longer. You will get a morning high in the 50s on Thurs then fall per the current guidance.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:26 am Tim... is it me or has the speed of this system also increased? It's almost like now, the cold front moves in Thurs morning to midday Thurs. Not good for severe wx at all. You'd want the low to cut towards IND or Chicagoland and have the front coming in later. Not the case here with the trends. Weaker, faster, more SE. I'm not forecasting snow, but if the trends continue, we may need to throw it in there in the coming days for somebody in AV Country.

I agree Les, I believe the models are having problems with the highs in Canada. They are turning out to be stronger than earlier predicted which also pushes the front through quicker. Of course want to see more on the Euro and Gfs. I know the MJO is in phase two and projections besides the Aussies had this quickly in phase 3 and then 4. Looks like they are starting to slow that process as well which as been the trend this season.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:26 am Tim... is it me or has the speed of this system also increased? It's almost like now, the cold front moves in Thurs morning to midday Thurs. Not good for severe wx at all. You'd want the low to cut towards IND or Chicagoland and have the front coming in later. Not the case here with the trends. Weaker, faster, more SE. I'm not forecasting snow, but if the trends continue, we may need to throw it in there in the coming days for somebody in AV Country.

I agree Les, I believe the models are having problems with the highs in Canada. They are turning out to be stronger than earlier predicted which also pushes the front through quicker. Of course want to see more on the Euro and Gfs. I know the MJO is in phase two and projections besides the Aussies had this quickly in phase 3 and then 4. Looks like they are starting to slow that process as well which as been the trend this season.

Still stuck in Phase 2 as of 2/10 per the Aussies. MJO has stalled. It is not moving right now. Recall early in the winter, our MJO discussion along w/Bgoney that the MJO models kept rushing its eastward extent into the colder phases? It took several weeks longer to get into the cold phases. Agree that the same thing going back into the warm phases is happening here. Delayed but not denied. It's going to take until March at this rate. If correct. If... the rest of Feb would offer us up chances and any torching would be brief and transient at best. Same with the cold shots. Hence my up n down temperature call. Makes getting a snow storm harder to achieve because timing even becomes more important. But that's the hand we've been dealt so we'll deal with it.

Wow..12Z GEFS is really going to raise an eyebrow for those of you watching it come in. Some nice hits in there on some of these members for snow starting to show up.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:36 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:26 am Tim... is it me or has the speed of this system also increased? It's almost like now, the cold front moves in Thurs morning to midday Thurs. Not good for severe wx at all. You'd want the low to cut towards IND or Chicagoland and have the front coming in later. Not the case here with the trends. Weaker, faster, more SE. I'm not forecasting snow, but if the trends continue, we may need to throw it in there in the coming days for somebody in AV Country.

I agree Les, I believe the models are having problems with the highs in Canada. They are turning out to be stronger than earlier predicted which also pushes the front through quicker. Of course want to see more on the Euro and Gfs. I know the MJO is in phase two and projections besides the Aussies had this quickly in phase 3 and then 4. Looks like they are starting to slow that process as well which as been the trend this season.

Still stuck in Phase 2 as of 2/10 per the Aussies. MJO has stalled. It is not moving right now. Recall early in the winter, our MJO discussion along w/Bgoney that the MJO models kept rushing its eastward extent into the colder phases? It took several weeks longer to get into the cold phases. Agree that the same thing going back into the warm phases is happening here. Delayed but not denied. It's going to take until March at this rate. If correct. If... the rest of Feb would offer us up chances and any torching would be brief and transient at best. Same with the cold shots. Hence my up n down temperature call. Makes getting a snow storm harder to achieve because timing even becomes more important. But that's the hand we've been dealt so we'll deal with it.

No doubt Les and even was heading towards phase 8 and looped back around into phase 7. So I agree going to be March before it gets to phase 4

12Z GFS Ensemble Mean snowfall thru Fri midday of next week for our area is in that 3-5" range. More north, less south. That's a nice signal this far out from an Ensemble mean. I'm interested.

Funny Les I was looking at the JMA and the German model yesterday and they both were further south more in line with the CMC. I really never look at those models but the CMC had been so far south for several runs and though the Euro was getting closer each run the gfs was still much further north.