Absolute Vorticity

12Z Euro isn't too far apart over the next 10 days from the GFS. A few minor differences here and there which you would expect, but I like the ideas that have been discussed today on our forum. Barring any surprises from Mother Nature, we've got things covered well for the rest of Rocktober in my opinion.

I will call today a November preview. Sorta chilly but not cold. Although my ears need to warm up a little.

Drizzle still ongoing... 52 degrees imby currently. 0.01" in the bucket. CVG has 0.02" and 52 as well. Watch for fog this evening and overnight also. Vis at CVG currently running at 1.75 mi.

Good Saturday to you all! The calm before the storm for today so to speak. A little sun this morning before clouds roll back in later. Probably won't get past 60 today. Then with the approach of the warm front... rain / storms are likely late Sat night and esp on Sunday. I think we'll get a break sometime Sun afternoon as the warm front lifts north. Temps should spike up towards 70 as a result. Then more action Sun night thru Monday with the cold frontal passage. Rainfall amounts with this next system should range in that 0.50-1.5" range. Quite the soaker! Winds will also be gusty esp on Sun / Mon with wind gusts to 40 mph possible. That should shake more leaves down.

Tues and Wed look to be dry and cooler. Highs in the 50s to maybe 60 should do it. I think Tues night, skies should be clear and if we can get calm winds, we should be able to drop down into the 30s. It's a little too soon to know about frost potential in the city areas. Probably should be able to get it done in the more rural locations and sheltered valleys.

Get any yardwork done if you can during this time because Thurs, Fri, and perhaps lingering into Sat is our next storm system. This one should be even stronger with more wind and heavy rain likely. This one is a monster upper low with a negatively tilted trough. Severe weather? Not sure this far away but it is one to watch. This system will usher in much cooler air behind it for Halloween and as we kick off November as well. Busy busy busy for the rest of Rocktober for sure guys so keep it here for the latest!

I know severe weather is expected in the Missouri Valley this weekend. Already heavy rains in the southern part of the state and we know sometimes a severe threat can lead to just heavy rain which happens quite often for us but in that part of the world I believe they will be getting both the heavy rain and more severe storms on Sunday.

ILN has us now with lows in the mid 30s for Tues night. I'd like that, could mean our first frost?

Clouds have rolled in as expected due to the moisture in advance of the warm front which will pass thru tomorrow. A few rouge showers out there but the bulk of the action is over S ILL, S IN and West KY / S MO. That is your moisture gathering in advance of the warm front. We should get wet later on tonight and esp for the first half of tomorrow. I-70 crew, it arrives later but lasts into the afternoon tomorrow where down here, we should be dry in the warm sector.

Went out and got some work done today. Finally getting some color up here. More clouds than sun but not really to bad of a day. It was a refreshing kind of a day to me.

Color here is awful. Just a little bit but most leaves are just falling off. The warmth from Aug - Oct really fouled things up.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:05 pm Color here is awful. Just a little bit but most leaves are just falling off. The warmth from Aug - Oct really fouled things up.

. Hopefully that will change for you

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:05 pm Color here is awful. Just a little bit but most leaves are just falling off. The warmth from Aug - Oct really fouled things up.

. Hopefully that will change for you

Thank you JP! But I'm not too confident in that because a lot of my trees are old lol. But even the younger trees on my street are way behind schedule. Oh well. Just give me snow and I'm a happy camper as you obviously know.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:08 pm I know severe weather is expected in the Missouri Valley this weekend. Already heavy rains in the southern part of the state and we know sometimes a severe threat can lead to just heavy rain which happens quite often for us but in that part of the world I believe they will be getting both the heavy rain and more severe storms on Sunday.

* Primary threats include...

Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely

Good Sunday morning to you all! It looks like a nasty severe wx event today for portions of the MO Valley. For us... more rain is moving in ahead of the warm front this morning. Then a break this afternoon followed by more action after midnight tonight and into Monday. Looks like the front will pass thru earlier now on Monday sp falling temps from the 60s thru the 50s are likely. I still like 0.50-1.5" rainfall amounts. Could be more like 2"+ N of I-70 where the warm front looks to stall out. Not expecting much in the way of severe wx here but I suppose a strong storm cannot be ruled out. Any big storms that fire up to our West today will be in a weakening phase tonight as that action heads our way.

Dry Tues and Wed then more rain Thurs - Sat time period with that upper low / cut off type system working thru the area.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:42 am Good Sunday morning to you all! It looks like a nasty severe wx event today for portions of the MO Valley. For us... more rain is moving in ahead of the warm front this morning. Then a break this afternoon followed by more action after midnight tonight and into Monday. Looks like the front will pass thru earlier now on Monday sp falling temps from the 60s thru the 50s are likely. I still like 0.50-1.5" rainfall amounts. Could be more like 2"+ N of I-70 where the warm front looks to stall out. Not expecting much in the way of severe wx here but I suppose a strong storm cannot be ruled out. Any big storms that fire up to our West today will be in a weakening phase tonight as that action heads our way.

Dry Tues and Wed then more rain Thurs - Sat time period with that upper low / cut off type system working thru the area.

Good Morning Les and another great post. How slow will the upper system be is key and since it looks rather large then slower is probably the way to go with this system. Would not be surprised come Halloween that the system is still in the neighborhood and if it has moved to the east we could be looking a rather brisk and cold day. I like what I see for November so far and will put those remarks in the November Discussion later today but first heading to my daughters house to do a little work.

Good morning Tim! I am currently going to go dry for Halloween but chilly. Hopefully that system will move out on Sat or Sat night. But you do bring up a good point. It could be delayed until sometime on Halloween if the block really causes this thing to get cut completely off from the main flow. Models do struggle with these systems as we know and I am fully prepared to change my Halloween dry call if need be. Probably won't know the answer to that until at least mid week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:55 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:05 pm Color here is awful. Just a little bit but most leaves are just falling off. The warmth from Aug - Oct really fouled things up.

. Hopefully that will change for you

Thank you JP! But I'm not too confident in that because a lot of my trees are old lol. But even the younger trees on my street are way behind schedule. Oh well. Just give me snow and I'm a happy camper as you obviously know.

I know we have to deal with the storms and rain the next few days. But, I am watching the cold air that could impact us in about 10 days give or take a day. Looks to be a good shock to the system if it pans out.

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:57 am I know we have to deal with the storms and rain the next few days. But, I am watching the cold air that could impact us in about 10 days give or take a day. Looks to be a good shock to the system if it pans out.

It remains to be seen how cold we actually get. Due to the lack of snow cover over North America, the incoming airmass won't be as cold as you'd otherwise expect. Below normal 100%, but not terribly so. Once we can get some more snow cover in Canada, that will of course change,

Rain has moved in thanks to the approaching warm front. The farther south you are, the more dry time you'll get later this afternoon versus folks up to the north.

As of 11am, about a quarter of an inch at CVG, with similar amounts here.

Candy beggars will have to wear their costumes over their coats / jackets lol.

Currently 50 and light drizzle here in G'ville.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:38 am Candy beggars will have to wear their costumes over their coats / jackets lol.

Currently 50 and light drizzle here in G'ville.

Will be interesting to see how many kids are out since its on a Sunday. I know in the past Halloween on Sunday usually means less kids which means I have more leftover candy for myself which sounds good but usually bad since I love chocolate way too much. Eric hope you and your family are doing well.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:02 am

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:57 am I know we have to deal with the storms and rain the next few days. But, I am watching the cold air that could impact us in about 10 days give or take a day. Looks to be a good shock to the system if it pans out.

It remains to be seen how cold we actually get. Due to the lack of snow cover over North America, the incoming airmass won't be as cold as you'd otherwise expect. Below normal 100%, but not terribly so. Once we can get some more snow cover in Canada, that will of course change,

I am thinking of how it feels to us. I am sure the complainers will be out in full force no matter what. :

The rain has started here. Ugly damp day now.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:46 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:38 am Candy beggars will have to wear their costumes over their coats / jackets lol.

Currently 50 and light drizzle here in G'ville.

Will be interesting to see how many kids are out since its on a Sunday. I know in the past Halloween on Sunday usually means less kids which means I have more leftover candy for myself which sounds good but usually bad since I love chocolate way too much. Eric hope you and your family are doing well.

Hi Tim,

Thank you very much for asking, Bro. My Mom and I are doing fine, Dad started a series of 28 radiation treatments on Oct 19th and will wrap those up the week after Thanksgiving. So far, thankfully, he hasn't had any side effects from the radiation but the most uncomfortable part of those sessions is a minor issue of retaining a full bladder during them after intake of a bottle of water. Its nice that its local for treatments over at our own Wayne Health Care center here in Greenville. We're all very pleased with and like his oncologist Dr. Trevor Bluemel who is associated with Dayton Physicians Network. Otherwise Dad is hanging in there.

I hope that you and your family are doing well, too, Wxbuddy.

My folks and I don't participate anymore in the Halloween distributing rounds as there's often too much left over anyway. In recent years we've been doing the Weight Watchers program and just yesterday did another monthly in person weigh in at the Kettering studio. Our support group who met at a church here in G'ville discontinued since the Covid pandemic. Dieting can be a "roller coaster / yo-yo" ride as it has for me i.e. Portion control and keeping points on food intake I need to work harder at. Exercising I have that down pat as I near daily pump on my recumbent bike for half an hour to at times 45 minutes.

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:02 am

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:57 am I know we have to deal with the storms and rain the next few days. But, I am watching the cold air that could impact us in about 10 days give or take a day. Looks to be a good shock to the system if it pans out.

It remains to be seen how cold we actually get. Due to the lack of snow cover over North America, the incoming airmass won't be as cold as you'd otherwise expect. Below normal 100%, but not terribly so. Once we can get some more snow cover in Canada, that will of course change,

I am thinking of how it feels to us. I am sure the complainers will be out in full force no matter what. :

The rain has started here. Ugly damp day now.

Agreed JP, it will feel colder then it actually is since we've been so warm for so long. Rain stopped here for the moment. Should get one more batch later before the warm front lifts far enough north to shut it down. You on the other hand are just getting started. 0.30-0.40" range so far in this area.