Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:25 am Tornado watch for my area. Tornado warning about 75 miles to the southwest. Watch is valid through 7pm. These are the kind of tornado's you get with a tropical system and though not using any higher than an f2 you they usually are rain-wrapped and not easily detected. The good thing its during the daytime so that helps somewhat in seeing a possible tornado.

Stay safe, Tim! Hope all the really bad weather stays away from your area.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:27 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:25 am Tornado watch for my area. Tornado warning about 75 miles to the southwest. Watch is valid through 7pm. These are the kind of tornado's you get with a tropical system and though not using any higher than an f2 you they usually are rain-wrapped and not easily detected. The good thing its during the daytime so that helps somewhat in seeing a possible tornado.

Stay safe, Tim! Hope all the really bad weather stays away from your area.

Thanks Mike,wish I could send you some of this rain

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:53 am Thanks Mike,wish I could send you some of this rain

Well the radar is suddenly looking promising for my hood now - just had a nice downpour and more cells to the south so looks like your wish worked! Looks like the early morning HRRR was onto something....

Tim - I echo what Mike said

Mike - good luck, Bro!

Enjoy the Fred rain, Tim, and take care, Bro!

Seeing quite a few 4-5" rainfall reports in the Columbus area.

Partly sunny, humid and the mid 80s here. Hope some of you are getting the rain who need it! Please reports your totals today folks, thanks.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:18 pm Seeing quite a few 4-5" rainfall reports in the Columbus area.

1.10 yesterday 4 tenths so far today imby been caught in several downpours today n/e of my home. I am soaked. LOL

Up to 0.10" here LOL Nickel and diming it so far.....

Franklin Co OH ~~ the storms magnet!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 17, 2021 2:30 pm Up to 0.10" here LOL Nickel and diming it so far.....

Better now then in January.

0.15" last night and 0.2" so far today breaking a long dry spell.

snowbo wrote: ↑Tue Aug 17, 2021 2:45 pm 0.15" last night and 0.2" so far today breaking a long dry spell.

Poor Mike! Even you've got 'em beat.

Looks like we've got an outter feeder band from Fred working up from the south in KY towards us. From LOU over to Falmouth to Hillsboro.

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Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
436 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

OHC017-061-165-180030-
/O.NEW.KILN.FA.Y.0103.210817T2036Z-210818T0030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Butler OH-Hamilton OH-Warren OH-
436 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Southeastern Butler County in southwestern Ohio...
Northeastern Hamilton County in southwestern Ohio...
Southwestern Warren County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 830 PM EDT.

* At 436 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms.
Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the
advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen in the
past hour, in addition to rain that fell earlier in the day.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Sharonville, Glendale, Evendale, Springdale, West Chester,
Reading, Kings Mills, Hamilton, Fairfield, Mason, Lebanon,
Norwood, Forest Park, Blue Ash, Loveland, Montgomery, North
College Hill, Madeira, Wyoming, Cheviot, Milford, Mount Healthy
and Deer Park.

&&

$$

Hatzos

86 here today and at CVG. A T at CVG today, dry here. No complaints from me. We need to get Mike into the game here!

Little birdie flew over my weather station - now at 0.12" I'm catchin' up to ya Bo!

No more rain today imby. 1.50 still for the past 2 days. I will be happy to share. At this rate the grass will be green until mid september if this keeps up. On a side note, Weatherworks sent out their first winter preview. Have not read it yet as I just got home a little bit ago.

Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
552 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

INC029-KYC015-OHC061-180100-
/O.NEW.KILN.FA.Y.0104.210817T2152Z-210818T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dearborn IN-Boone KY-Hamilton OH-
552 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Central Dearborn County in southeastern Indiana...
Northern Boone County in northern Kentucky...
West Central Hamilton County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 900 PM EDT.

* At 552 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms.
Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the
advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen in the
past hour, in addition to some rain that fell earlier in the day.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Lawrenceburg, Idlewild, Francisville, Cleves, Greendale, Aurora,
Hidden Valley, Bright, Dillsboro, Shawnee, Miami Heights, Mack,
Grandview, Addyston, North Bend, Petersburg, Elizabethtown, Mount
Sinai and Hooven.

&&

$$

Hatzos

Chances for those isolated downpours are slightly less today than yesterday, 20%.
For tomorrow, chances go back up as a cut-off low rotates through in the morning. Unlike previous days , models are honing in on the best coverage of scattered showers to be for counties bordering the river , 50%-60%. Elsewhere
30-40%. Best chance for This should be Between 4am and noon tomorrow, atm

Good morning! Pretty foggy in some areas this morning so take it easy! Like Bgoney's call for low chances today. I also agree. Mid 80s easy if not a touch more for highs as long as clouds don't spoil the fun there. We've got a good shot tomorrow then low chances again Fri. Scattered this weekend then we get close to a contest day for Mon and Tues of next week. Storms mid week, cooler temps by the end of next week.

I kind of gave a hint to the last part of Aug in my last post. ENS models are in good agreement showing the ridge moving back to the West as we get attacked by more cold fronts and another trough here. On or just after the 25th looks to be the target for this change to occur. Until then, same ole, same ole. Humid, storm chances, and some contest days possible for about 2-3 days next week then we're back to our usual summer time blocking pattern.

0.13 of a mile vis at CVG so a tenth and some change of a mile at best. When you get less then 0.25 or a 1/4 mile, it gets tricky driving. Be careful all in some places. Fog looks to be not as dense imby as it once was., I'm probably up to a 1/2 mile vis now.

Quick post on tomorrow. Our best chance of rain and to get more folks involved. Data over the last few days has shown the potential for another round of scattered areas of heavy rain and t-storms tomorrow morning especially and continuing to develop for the first part of the day, ending in the afternoon. Not all models agree and placement varies too but that is really our next interesting potential this week. See thoughts from the boys below.


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Convergent boundary sets up across the region tonight into
Thursday along with upper level support. There are some
indications that there will be a band or multiple pockets of
heavy rain that will develop tonight and into the day on
Thursday. For tonight the concern would be due more to the
orientation of the flow, while on Thursday there is very little
in the way of flow and therefore will have the concern that
storms will be slow moving. Added the potential for heavy rain
and possible flooding into the HWO for the corridor with the
heaviest rain potential.