Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:33 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:09 pm 12Z Euro does keep the dry pattern going Tues onwards next week while the GFS keeps the fronts coming. Does the GFS score this time or does the Euro's streak continue? Stay tuned...

The pattern and persistence of it, suggests the GFS should be correct. But again we'll see.

Just see if the heat out west finally can get a hold on further east. Unable so far this summer and with recent rains it may take a longer time than normal but I do see the heat finally making inroads.

Question will be this... do we remain active? That'll put a cap on any major heat that tries to come in. Or do we really see a 594 DM ridge center itself on us? We're on the edge of it per the long range 12Z GFS so we'd be prone to t-storms if correct. If the ridge builds in more, then you're talking low to mid 90s.

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Another nice summer day today , not impressed with rain chances , 20%-30% for our NW counties. Tomorrow gradually better chances through the day peaking in the he evening and overnight, 50-60%. Same deal for Saturday 50%. As far as thunder,, Only isolated T-showers with very low severe chances throughout, atm.

The highest chances are still Fri and Sat with low chances on Sunday. A lot of folks will be dry today. For next week, Mon and Tues are now dry and heating up with a faster frontal passage. GFS has a weak front for mid week and a strong one for Friday of next week. Euro is mainly dry all of next week.

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/07/15/goode- ... -blog-715/

Good Morning and no rain yesterday and I don't know how to act. Today looks good but Fri-Sun good bring rounds of rain and the closer we get to the event it looks like the models are moving totals up somewhat. I believe a good call is 1- 1 1/2 inches for most folks and again if you get several rounds that total can be higher.

Good morning Tim! After work, today is lawn mowing and bean picking so I can pack clothes to get ready for my trip Fri afternoon. Glad for the dry day yesterday and today so mowing the hill should be okay now. Don't think I'll have to worry about anything burning up while I'm gone.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 9:32 am Good morning Tim! After work, today is lawn mowing and bean picking so I can pack clothes to get ready for my trip Fri afternoon. Glad for the dry day yesterday and today so mowing the hill should be okay now. Don't think I'll have to worry about anything burning up while I'm gone.

Les have a great trip and yes I believe lawn should be fine for another week at least.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 10:01 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 9:32 am Good morning Tim! After work, today is lawn mowing and bean picking so I can pack clothes to get ready for my trip Fri afternoon. Glad for the dry day yesterday and today so mowing the hill should be okay now. Don't think I'll have to worry about anything burning up while I'm gone.

Les have a great trip and yes I believe lawn should be fine for another week at least.

Thanks Tim!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 9:32 am Good morning Tim! After work, today is lawn mowing and bean picking so I can pack clothes to get ready for my trip Fri afternoon. Glad for the dry day yesterday and today so mowing the hill should be okay now. Don't think I'll have to worry about anything burning up while I'm gone.

Yeah Les, have a great time and safe trip!

That reminds me that I'm going to make a trip to Jungle Jims and get some Walleye to blacken on the grill one of these evenings!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 11:34 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 9:32 am Good morning Tim! After work, today is lawn mowing and bean picking so I can pack clothes to get ready for my trip Fri afternoon. Glad for the dry day yesterday and today so mowing the hill should be okay now. Don't think I'll have to worry about anything burning up while I'm gone.

Yeah Les, have a great time and safe trip!

That reminds me that I'm going to make a trip to Jungle Jims and get some Walleye to blacken on the grill one of these evenings!

Thanks Joe! Heck yeah! That sounds like a plan!

83 as of 12pm. Contest day?

Have a safe and awesome trip, Les!!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:14 pm Have a safe and awesome trip, Les!!

Thanks Mike!

While not expecting anything for the heart of AV land today, it does appear a couple of storms have popped for the SE crew down in Brown County OH into Bracken and Mason counties in KY.

Euro has likely POPS Fri and Sat, low chance Sun then dry Mon - Wed. Scattered chances return with another frontal boundary by Thurs and Fri of next week.

87 at CVG now... it's tryin'!

Ha Ha - so after I spoke, I see a shower popping on radar near....drumroll.....Hamilton! LOL

There's one cell south of My Dome too.

Looks like CVG is teasing us for the contest....been at 88 for awhile. Need a jet to takeoff!

Still 88 as of 4:45pm...

88 per the climate report. No dice...

0.50” rain last night in my hood and flash flood watch for Dayton and Columbus through Saturday.

Wow... what a nice turn of events for the I-70 Crew. Going from zero to hero in the rainfall dept. For us down here... pockets of heavy rain are likely but not everyone may get the heavier totals. 70% today and 80% coverage tomorrow from the boys then that's about it. Chances Sunday really drop off fast. Looks like the boys are going with the Euro. Dry thru Thurs with mid to upper 80s expected.