Absolute Vorticity

No problem JP.. Def concerned for you folks along the I70 Corridor. The rain is needed, severe wx isn't. Good luck!

Thanks for the update gentlemen. We are camping in the Allegheny national Forest in North Western Pennsylvania. Finally arrived at a campground that has cell service. There is some talk of the enhanced storms up this way but I’ll be closely watching the weather at home and following what are you guys have diagnosed! Keep up the good work, it is greatly appreciated!

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:05 pm Thanks for the update gentlemen. We are camping in the Allegheny national Forest in North Western Pennsylvania. Finally arrived at a campground that has cell service. There is some talk of the enhanced storms up this way but I’ll be closely watching the weather at home and following what are you guys have diagnosed! Keep up the good work, it is greatly appreciated!

UGH... no fun camping in the rain let alone severe wx. Did plenty of that at Lake Erie when I was a kid. One time, we got 12" of rain overnight. Yes, a foot of rain. Campground was totally flooded. Woke up in my tent to wetness as my air mattress was floating LOL Picnic tables floating on by as you look outside. It was crazy! Tornado warnings, hail, the whole bit. I have some old photos in a drawer somewhere I need to dig up and scan lol I sure hope you all don't see anything like that occur.

83 here today.... 84 CVG. Humidity wasn't bad today but it still felt hot to me this afternoon.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:27 pm

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:05 pm Thanks for the update gentlemen. We are camping in the Allegheny national Forest in North Western Pennsylvania. Finally arrived at a campground that has cell service. There is some talk of the enhanced storms up this way but I’ll be closely watching the weather at home and following what are you guys have diagnosed! Keep up the good work, it is greatly appreciated!

UGH... no fun camping in the rain let alone severe wx. Did plenty of that at Lake Erie when I was a kid. One time, we got 12" of rain overnight. Yes, a foot of rain. Campground was totally flooded. Woke up in my tent to wetness as my air mattress was floating LOL Picnic tables floating on by as you look outside. It was crazy! Tornado warnings, hail, the whole bit. I have some old photos in a drawer somewhere I need to dig up and scan lol I sure hope you all don't see anything like that occur.

Talk about an impromptu waterbed, Bro, lol!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:37 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:27 pm

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:05 pm Thanks for the update gentlemen. We are camping in the Allegheny national Forest in North Western Pennsylvania. Finally arrived at a campground that has cell service. There is some talk of the enhanced storms up this way but I’ll be closely watching the weather at home and following what are you guys have diagnosed! Keep up the good work, it is greatly appreciated!

UGH... no fun camping in the rain let alone severe wx. Did plenty of that at Lake Erie when I was a kid. One time, we got 12" of rain overnight. Yes, a foot of rain. Campground was totally flooded. Woke up in my tent to wetness as my air mattress was floating LOL Picnic tables floating on by as you look outside. It was crazy! Tornado warnings, hail, the whole bit. I have some old photos in a drawer somewhere I need to dig up and scan lol I sure hope you all don't see anything like that occur.

Talk about an impromptu waterbed, Bro, lol!

It literally was LOL

In addition to the severe wx threat tomorrow, there is also now a moderate risk of flash flooding too after sunset for folks manly N of Cincinnati. Then for Sat, SPC has issued a marginal risk for severe wx for all AV Posters.

* Primary threats include...

Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

A tornado or two possible

Some of what's potentially coming our way tomorrow!

The boys are definitely playing things up tomorrow - here is a piece of their discussion that sounds rather ominous -

“There are some concerning signals for a higher end damaging wind event late Friday afternoon into Friday night. CIPS analogs also are supportive of this and SPC has a large portion of the region in an enhanced risk. Given shear profiles there is also at least some tornadic and hail potential as well. Added severe wording into the forecast”

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:01 pm No problem JP.. Def concerned for you folks along the I70 Corridor. The rain is needed, severe wx isn't. Good luck!

Definitely got my attention now. Yes the rain is needed. I can't believe it after the past two weeks that I am seeing brown in yards. But the wind potential means I need to move my truck. LOL LOL

85 here today - still concerned up our way for later tomorrow and tomorrow night. Will be curious to see how it ends up panning out.

I brought inside the garage a couple of lawn chairs, a planter rack stand, garden hose and reel earlier this evening.

Hope others here have brought inside any unsecured items from their properties, too.

Les, have a safe trip to MO and cherish those sweet memories of your dear Grandmother.

Joe, I hope that you and your family have a great time camping!

Currently 72 here in G'ville and progged for around 63 Fri morning.

Biggest changes overnight were to add all counties bordering the river with a chance of heavier rains, otherwise, yesterday's concerns still intact. Pretty much a nowcast situation when the late day storms initiate over Central IN and northern oh probably sometime between 3 and 5pm and scoot SE toward ILNs FA.

Agreed - definitely a mesoscale analysis type of afternoon and evening on tap. Atmosphere will be completely different later today than now.....currently 70+ dewpoints surging into western Indiana and will be here this afternoon. Heat indices will also be quite uncomfortable this afternoon before the storms blow through.

Per radar almost all models under estimated current cluster and its southern extent.

Yeah I am almost thinking this first line may clip my hood in the next couple of hours.

Here is the latest day 1 SPC outlook for Ohio. Not much change from previous....

Has been thundering here in Greenville and now starting to rain.

12z HRRR continues the very scary flash flood look for up here later tonight. I know this is nowcasting and the models did horrible up in Iowa yesterday. Just something to keep an eye on.

Leaving soon for MO but wanted to mention ILN issued a flood watch too for everybody.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Indiana...Northern Kentucky and Ohio, including the
following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette IN, Franklin IN,
Ohio, Ripley, Union IN and Wayne. In Northern Kentucky, Boone,
Campbell and Kenton. In Ohio, Adams, Brown, Butler, Champaign,
Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Darke, Fairfield, Fayette OH, Franklin
OH, Greene, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking, Madison, Miami,
Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto and Warren.

* From this evening through Saturday morning.

* Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. The rain will be
heavy at times with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour
possible in some of the storms. In areas of repeated storms,
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible.

Have a safe and happy trip, Les!!!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:32 am Has been thundering here in Greenville and now starting to rain.

Yeah some good storms in the Winchester, IN area up to Union City. So looks like you are in line to see some downpours and maybe small hail in the next hour or so.

Alert: Flash Flood Watch now expanded:

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
942 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

INZ080-KYZ089-090-094>100-182145-
/O.EXB.KILN.FF.A.0002.210618T2200Z-210619T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-
Mason-Lewis-
Including the cities of Tollesboro, Mount Olivet, Vevay, Owenton,
Brooksville, Vanceburg, Falmouth, Augusta, Williamstown, Carrollton,
Maysville, Butler, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, and Warsaw
942 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of Southeast Indiana and
Kentucky, including the following counties, in Southeast Indiana,
Switzerland. In Kentucky, Bracken, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant,
Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson.

* From 6 PM EDT this evening through Saturday afternoon.

* Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. The rain will be
heavy at times with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour
possible in some of the storms. In areas of repeated storms,
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:43 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:32 am Has been thundering here in Greenville and now starting to rain.

Yeah some good storms in the Winchester, IN area up to Union City. So looks like you are in line to see some downpours and maybe small hail in the next hour or so.

A couple minutes ago had a lightning strike nearby as we heard a sharp bang boom. Mom screamed lol.

Looks like ILN radar down for repairs....estimating a 3 hour downtime.