Absolute Vorticity

Check out the latest SREF forecast for 8pm this evening. Doesn't get much more ominous than this. High risk definitely warranted. Very large area with 75-90% probs of significant/violent tornadoes across Mississippi and western Alabama.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:23 pm Until more data is available, I agree with the SPC placement for now (re: day three outlook from earlier today). They may push the slight further north on their next update. We’ll see. But with the low modeled to pass right over us (or just south), we have got to watch it. Too close for comfort. Obviously the main outbreak will be south. But given the proximity of the low track, there may very well be some late night severe thunderstorm or maybe a tornado warning or two in the ILN coverage area tomorrow night/early Thu morning.

Yeah a little wabble of the low track to the north or west would be all it takes. I, like you, favor the extreme SE ILN forecast area...but ya never know. Latest SREF 5% TOR probs do extend to just south of CVG by 12z Thursday.

Here is the SPC day one visual

Not much change overnight with evolving system for tonight. Keeping rain amounts the same . Some thunder and heavier pockets of rain into early morning hours Thursday before a dry slot moves in. Still not impressed for CVG with severe weather, but of course one can't rule it out. Slightly better chance for our SE counties. Ingredients are there but do not seem to line up at the same time. Although dry slotted , still should be mostly cloudy with a few breaks for sun in the afternoon. Temps get into 60s and DPs in the low to mid 50s, but by mid to late afternoon DPs start to lower as winds shift more from the west as minor cape builds. So things are a bit off , but again not zero

Jackson MS looks to be in the crosshairs. For us... a decent day today. Should be able to soar into the 60s! Then we get wet and watch for that isolated severe risk we've been mentioning. CVG rainfall amounts:

NAM - 1.15"
GFS - 1.06"
Euro - 1.24"

Of course I can't tell until the sun comes up but we may have some dense fog in spots out there this morning. CVG is reporting 1/4 mile vis.

Dense fog advisory issued until 11:00

Now that I can tell... wow, very foggy now that it's getting light outside. Much worse then yesterday morning imby.

Not much fog in my hood, however up the hill at MGY it's 1/4 mile visibility.

Good Morning and a foggy morning. This will keep temps down this morning but once it burns off temps will rise quickly. Tons of moisture so the next system should bring in a good dose of rainfall and .75-1.5 still looks good. Severe chances are slim locally and Bgoney made a great point that we get the dry slot but it should still remain cloudy especially with a good dose of rainfall plus dews that get into the 50's early on should be on the decline later in the day. Folks in Lexington and further south and east would have the best shot of severe weather and though the chance is not zero but all I expect is some heavy rain and maybe a rumble of thunder. Friday looks cold but a rebound this weekend with sunshine and getting back into the 60's by Sunday. Heading back to SC Monday and will be down there for about 10days to take care of a few things.My guess will be seeing a lot of 70's down there and maybe an 80 degree day. Open the grill up the other day and I love grilling and having a few drinks in the late afternoon.

Good morning Tim! Around here locally, it's a good grilling day later this afternoon. Once we warm up for the 2nd half of the weekend and on into early next week... continued good grilling conditions are expected.

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/03/17/goode- ... ther-blog/

High Risk expanded eastward now covering Birmingham and Tuscaloosa AL.

The fog has finally mixed out here imby… just overcast now from the stratus deck.

We had better get some sunshine in here in the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the U60s aren't going to happen today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:52 am We had better get some sunshine in here in the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the U60s aren't going to happen today.

You read my mind, Les! Are these pesky clouds gonna screw us in the temps again? Currently cloudy and 45 here.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:15 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:52 am We had better get some sunshine in here in the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the U60s aren't going to happen today.

You read my mind, Les! Are these pesky clouds gonna screw us in the temps again? Currently cloudy and 45 here.

It appears that way attm, Mike. As of 11am CVG was still stuck at 44.

It does appear the eastern edge of the low clouds are slowly eroding from the east and am starting to see some small blue sky patches here....

cold and clouds still in Morrow/Maineville. 46 and damp, grey, and sucky.

PDS Tornado Watch about to be issued for parts of MS and AL. Here we go!

Mesoscale Discussion 0200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Areas affected...Central MS...Central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 171556Z - 171800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The environment is becoming increasingly favorable for
tornadic supercells and a PDS tornado watch will likely be needed
within the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery continues to show
deepening convection within the broad and robust warm-air advection
regime across much of MS and AL. Some modest clearing occurred
briefly ahead of the leading showers over MS and temperatures across
much of central and southern MS are now in the mid 70s. Slightly
cooler surface temperatures exist across central/southern AL.
Dewpoints exhibit a similar trend, with upper 60s/low 70s across
much of central/southern MS and mid to upper 60s across
central/southern AL. These thermodynamic conditions have eroded much
of the convective inhibition across the region, although forecast
soundings do suggests some minimal (i.e. MLCIN of -25 J/kg or more)
likely remains in place at the top of the boundary layer. Continued
moistening of the low-level profile coupled with slight cooling
aloft should result in a removal of all convective inhibition.

In addition to improving thermodynamics, the low-level wind fields
continue to increase. Recent VAD profiles from LIX and DGX show 50
kts within the 1-2 km layer. Latest VAD from DGX also sampled 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity over 350 m2/s2. These strengthening
low-level winds are expected to persist while gradually spreading
northward/northeastward into more of northern AL. Deep-layer
vertical shear is already in place over the region, with 0-6 km bulk
shear currently 50 kt over central MS/AL, increasing to 70 kt over
northern MS/AL.

In all, the overall environment is expected to becoming increasingly
favorable for discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including intense tornadoes. These initial storms are forecast to
develop within the 17-19Z time frame. A prolonged threat for
tornadoes is anticipated across the region, with conditions
remaining favorable well into the evening.

Twitter should be an interesting place this afternoon- how many hashtags end in Wx... ?

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:36 am It does appear the eastern edge of the low clouds are slowly eroding from the east and am starting to see some small blue sky patches here....

Seeing a peak or two of sun here as well. Not a lot though.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:29 pm Twitter should be an interesting place this afternoon- how many hashtags end in Wx... ?

No doubt!

PDS Watch issued across High Risk area:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0029.html

NWS Lake Charles LA Livestream:

https://www.facebook.com/NWSLakeCharles