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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:08 am
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:02 am The 12Z GFS to me still looks like a northern outlier.
Definitely but a lot closer than what it was.

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:09 am
by tron777
All models that I have seen today give us some decent deform snows on Monday. Originally, it looked like we were going to be done by noon. If today's trends hold, we will see snow lasting until the late afternoon or early evening hours (depending on your location). The primary looks to hang on into WV and the upper low also remains intact over North Central KY. Hopefully, we will continue to see that. It'll help out with snow totals esp if sleet or frz rain gets involved.

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:10 am
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:08 am
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:02 am The 12Z GFS to me still looks like a northern outlier.
Definitely but a lot closer than what it was.
True. It's trying! :lol: As long as the foreign models continue to look good that's all I am concerned about for today.

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:11 am
by mikeyp
Canadian is a nice hit. 6-8" and we stay mainly, if not all snow

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:12 am
by Bgoney
The dry slot brought up yesterday looks real But in this case it looks to be a good thing atm as it has only been showing up where icing would have been going on and that may cut down on those amounts , at least in some areas to the south

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:13 am
by Phr0z3n
mikeyp wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:11 am Canadian is a nice hit. 6-8" and we stay mainly, if not all snow
Definitely went south and more of a snow hit for cincy

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:14 am
by tron777
12Z RGEM = Googly Moogly for Boone, Kenton, Campbell on north. Major snow hit for Cincinnati!

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:16 am
by Phr0z3n
Icon 12z
IMG_1235.png

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:17 am
by tron777
Can anyone post the 12Z RGEM please? I bet it is similar to the ICON.

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:19 am
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:17 am Can anyone post the 12Z RGEM please? I bet it is similar to the ICON.

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:19 am
by Phr0z3n
Phr0z3n wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:19 am
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:17 am Can anyone post the 12Z RGEM please? I bet it is similar to the ICON.
A little weaker

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:24 am
by tron777
Thank you Phr0z3n (and everyone else too) for posting what I am asking. I appreciate it! :) A few more hours to go then I will have zero restrictions. :)

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:26 am
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:24 am Thank you Phr0z3n (and everyone else too) for posting what I am asking. I appreciate it! :) A few more hours to go then I will have zero restrictions. :)
No problem!

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:29 am
by dce
mikeyp wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:21 amHere is NWS call
My opinion is that they're 8-12 area is too far north.

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:30 am
by Phr0z3n
Jan 11 is looking interesting for your area per the 12z gfs

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:33 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:24 am Thank you Phr0z3n (and everyone else too) for posting what I am asking. I appreciate it! :) A few more hours to go then I will have zero restrictions. :)
zero restrictions and we are in trouble lol

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:34 am
by Phr0z3n
12z gfs ensemble mean is just a tad bit north. Wouldn’t amount to much of a change

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:35 am
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:30 am Jan 11 is looking interesting for your area per the 12z gfs
See our main January thread for that one. I've been talking about it for a couple of days now. :)

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:35 am
by tpweather
Phr0z3n wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:30 am Jan 11 is looking interesting for your area per the 12z gfs
Yes we have that one pegged as well. What a great pattern over the next 2 weeks. Plenty of energy floating around and of course cold air

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:35 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:33 am
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:24 am Thank you Phr0z3n (and everyone else too) for posting what I am asking. I appreciate it! :) A few more hours to go then I will have zero restrictions. :)
zero restrictions and we are in trouble lol
Isn't it great? :lol:

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:36 am
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:35 am
Phr0z3n wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:30 am Jan 11 is looking interesting for your area per the 12z gfs
See our main January thread for that one. I've been talking about it for a couple of days now. :)
Ah sorry wrong thread for that one.

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:37 am
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:36 am
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:35 am
Phr0z3n wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:30 am Jan 11 is looking interesting for your area per the 12z gfs
See our main January thread for that one. I've been talking about it for a couple of days now. :)
Ah sorry wrong thread for that one.
All good! No problem whatsoever. :)

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:38 am
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:34 am 12z gfs ensemble mean is just a tad bit north. Wouldn’t amount to much of a change
I start paying less attention to the Ensembles this close in and rely more on the globals. By tomorrow, it'll pretty much be a short term and hi-res thing by then.

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:41 am
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:38 am
Phr0z3n wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:34 am 12z gfs ensemble mean is just a tad bit north. Wouldn’t amount to much of a change
I start paying less attention to the Ensembles this close in and rely more on the globals. By tomorrow, it'll pretty much be a short term and hi-res thing by then.
I do the same thing Saturday afternoon on that close to an event I rely on Hi res nam and HRRR. Too many time the global deterministic models miss too much

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:42 am
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:41 am
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:38 am
Phr0z3n wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:34 am 12z gfs ensemble mean is just a tad bit north. Wouldn’t amount to much of a change
I start paying less attention to the Ensembles this close in and rely more on the globals. By tomorrow, it'll pretty much be a short term and hi-res thing by then.
I do the same thing Saturday afternoon on that close to an event I rely on Hi res nam and HRRR. Too many time the global deterministic models miss too much
Can't wait to see what the HRRR shows tomorrow. Also, I am waiting on the NAM to NAM us too! You know how that goes. There is always that one NAM run that predicts the end of the word that never comes true. :lol: