The PDO bottomed out close to -4 and has started rising since. -1.71 as of Nov 12th. Keep on rising baby! This is good news if it were to continue in my opinion. You can see the PDO daily index by clicking on the link and then selecting the 2nd graphic on the right hand side of the page.
Oceanic SST's continue to cool as well esp around Japan which has been boiling the last few years. I'm really liking what is transpiring here folks! Let's see how our new blocking pattern develops and how long it lasts. Like I said before, the late November pattern can certainly hold clues as to what the upcoming winter may hold.
Also of note, the Euro Weeklies were showing well above avg temps. They continue to cool with each new run and actually show slightly below normal temps now going into December. We have lots to keep an eye on here folks and much to be excited about should these trends continue.
The PDO bottomed out close to -4 and has started rising since. -1.71 as of Nov 12th. Keep on rising baby! This is good news if it were to continue in my opinion. You can see the PDO daily index by clicking on the link and then selecting the 2nd graphic on the right hand side of the page.
Oceanic SST's continue to cool as well esp around Japan which has been boiling the last few years. I'm really liking what is transpiring here folks! Let's see how our new blocking pattern develops and how long it lasts. Like I said before, the late November pattern can certainly hold clues as to what the upcoming winter may hold.
Also of note, the Euro Weeklies were showing well above avg temps. They continue to cool with each new run and actually show slightly below normal temps now going into December. We have lots to keep an eye on here folks and much to be excited about should these trends continue.
Wow . Who flipped the switch?
NAO forecast
IMG_2616.png
Pretty nice looking eh? Let's see if we can get a +PNA / -EPO going too as modeling is suggesting, That actually means more to me then the -NAO in terms of getting a sustainable wintry pattern going.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 7:42 am
by Bgoney
Well I don’t know what’s going on with my rain gauge of late, I guess the dirt in it is clogging up the holes. 1.50” overnight in about a 5-6 hour period, so it came down pretty steady for the duration
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:02 am
by Bgoney
We should be hearing from our friendly Lake effect snow member in about 10days!!!!!!
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:05 am
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:02 am
We should be hearing from our friendly Lake effect snow member in about 10days!!!!!!
Yep. It is looking good for Chardon and other snow belt areas! I'll bet we'll see some good video from in and around the Buffalo area too.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:06 am
by cloudy72
Good morning, AV family! Sorry it has been a long silence from me but just been tending to everyday stuff. Hopefully I will now be able to post more often. Looks like lots of exciting changes upcoming! Picked up about 0.93" here so far. Hope all is doing well!
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:11 am
by tpweather
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:06 am
Good morning, AV family! Sorry it has been a long silence from me but just been tending to everyday stuff. Hopefully I will now be able to post more often. Looks like lots of exciting changes upcoming! Picked up about 0.93" here so far. Hope all is doing well!
Good to hear from you Mike and I picked up 1.37 and that is 3 straight systems with decent rainfall totals but not so much where you see and flooding as much of it has gone into the ground as we start to replenish the streams and ponds.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:23 am
by MVWxObserver
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:06 am
Good morning, AV family! Sorry it has been a long silence from me but just been tending to everyday stuff. Hopefully I will now be able to post more often. Looks like lots of exciting changes upcoming! Picked up about 0.93" here so far. Hope all is doing well!
Great to see you back, Mike!
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:31 am
by tron777
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:06 am
Good morning, AV family! Sorry it has been a long silence from me but just been tending to everyday stuff. Hopefully I will now be able to post more often. Looks like lots of exciting changes upcoming! Picked up about 0.93" here so far. Hope all is doing well!
Glad to see your dome has broken too Mike! Hope to see you posting more now that our favorite season is upon us! Hope you and the family are well, man!
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 10:04 am
by tron777
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 11:50 am
by tpweather
Good Afternoon and a little surprise today as the sun peaked out for about 10-15 minutes and just got a heavy shower with thunder. I thought a drizzle would be all and maybe a light shower but that sun can no doubt work its magic.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 12:11 pm
by tron777
CVG is reporting a t-storm now too. 54 degrees.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 12:42 pm
by tron777
Getting a pretty heavy shower now in Mason.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 12:48 pm
by young pup
1.10 in the gauge so far today. Even have a nice chill to the air. My brother went into work at 4 this morning, said it was windy and the rain was blowing sideways. Probably got a little more rain then what the gauge had in it then.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 1:16 pm
by tron777
1.24" now at CVG.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 4:46 pm
by tron777
Good afternoon all! 1.34" now at CVG as a few more showers have passed thru. I am in the 1.30's here as is the Boone Co mesonet - 1.36" We can a break (although cloudy) until next week. Mon night into Wed is our next rain chance. Then we will be tracking the upper trough swinging thru, shot of cold air, and precip type. Timing also. Thurs night into Friday or delayed until the weekend? Coverage and how much all in question. The only thing I am highly confident on is rain and snow showers being likely. Can't really forecast much more then that this far out. Next week, certainly can. And we will!
Newly upgraded 12Z Euro has the big low next week much further south / slower too over MO instead of over Western MN / IA then lifting up into Wisc like the GFS. GFS also faster Thurs night and Fri where the Euro brings the upper low in right over AC Country and we are cold, cloudy, breezy with rain and snow showers persisting all weekend long (next weekend).
In the extended range, the Euro looks to be releasing the Arctic hounds as we head into December and while the GFS isn't warm, it just isn't as cold as what the Euro is suggesting. The location of the PNA ridge is perfect on the Euro for us. Better for East Coast on GFS.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 6:10 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 4:46 pm
Good afternoon all! 1.34" now at CVG as a few more showers have passed thru. I am in the 1.30's here as is the Boone Co mesonet - 1.36" We can a break (although cloudy) until next week. Mon night into Wed is our next rain chance. Then we will be tracking the upper trough swinging thru, shot of cold air, and precip type. Timing also. Thurs night into Friday or delayed until the weekend? Coverage and how much all in question. The only thing I am highly confident on is rain and snow showers being likely. Can't really forecast much more then that this far out. Next week, certainly can. And we will!
Newly upgraded 12Z Euro has the big low next week much further south / slower too over MO instead of over Western MN / IA then lifting up into Wisc like the GFS. GFS also faster Thurs night and Fri where the Euro brings the upper low in right over AC Country and we are cold, cloudy, breezy with rain and snow showers persisting all weekend long (next weekend).
In the extended range, the Euro looks to be releasing the Arctic hounds as we head into December and while the GFS isn't warm, it just isn't as cold as what the Euro is suggesting. The location of the PNA ridge is perfect on the Euro for us. Better for East Coast on GFS.
Les I hope the forecast holds and no doubt pretty much how we saw November and early December playing out. Mother Nature is trying her best to balance things out and though never perfect she will try her best. Does this mean a cold winter and the answer is maybe. I still like overall a milder winter but not by much with back and forth quite often. Do we see any big time cold outbreaks and again no way of knowing that either but I still believe precip wise is going to be above normal unless we get really cold for an extended period. Saw the creek along Pioneer Park today and yes its flowing quite nicely for the first time since spring.
Let's see if we can get a +PNA / -EPO going too as modeling is suggesting, That actually means more to me then the -NAO in terms of getting a sustainable wintry pattern going.
