The PDO bottomed out close to -4 and has started rising since. -1.71 as of Nov 12th. Keep on rising baby! This is good news if it were to continue in my opinion. You can see the PDO daily index by clicking on the link and then selecting the 2nd graphic on the right hand side of the page.
Oceanic SST's continue to cool as well esp around Japan which has been boiling the last few years. I'm really liking what is transpiring here folks! Let's see how our new blocking pattern develops and how long it lasts. Like I said before, the late November pattern can certainly hold clues as to what the upcoming winter may hold.
Also of note, the Euro Weeklies were showing well above avg temps. They continue to cool with each new run and actually show slightly below normal temps now going into December. We have lots to keep an eye on here folks and much to be excited about should these trends continue.
The PDO bottomed out close to -4 and has started rising since. -1.71 as of Nov 12th. Keep on rising baby! This is good news if it were to continue in my opinion. You can see the PDO daily index by clicking on the link and then selecting the 2nd graphic on the right hand side of the page.
Oceanic SST's continue to cool as well esp around Japan which has been boiling the last few years. I'm really liking what is transpiring here folks! Let's see how our new blocking pattern develops and how long it lasts. Like I said before, the late November pattern can certainly hold clues as to what the upcoming winter may hold.
Also of note, the Euro Weeklies were showing well above avg temps. They continue to cool with each new run and actually show slightly below normal temps now going into December. We have lots to keep an eye on here folks and much to be excited about should these trends continue.
Wow . Who flipped the switch?
NAO forecast
IMG_2616.png
Pretty nice looking eh? Let's see if we can get a +PNA / -EPO going too as modeling is suggesting, That actually means more to me then the -NAO in terms of getting a sustainable wintry pattern going.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 7:42 am
by Bgoney
Well I don’t know what’s going on with my rain gauge of late, I guess the dirt in it is clogging up the holes. 1.50” overnight in about a 5-6 hour period, so it came down pretty steady for the duration
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:02 am
by Bgoney
We should be hearing from our friendly Lake effect snow member in about 10days!!!!!!
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:05 am
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:02 am
We should be hearing from our friendly Lake effect snow member in about 10days!!!!!!
Yep. It is looking good for Chardon and other snow belt areas! I'll bet we'll see some good video from in and around the Buffalo area too.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:06 am
by cloudy72
Good morning, AV family! Sorry it has been a long silence from me but just been tending to everyday stuff. Hopefully I will now be able to post more often. Looks like lots of exciting changes upcoming! Picked up about 0.93" here so far. Hope all is doing well!
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:11 am
by tpweather
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:06 am
Good morning, AV family! Sorry it has been a long silence from me but just been tending to everyday stuff. Hopefully I will now be able to post more often. Looks like lots of exciting changes upcoming! Picked up about 0.93" here so far. Hope all is doing well!
Good to hear from you Mike and I picked up 1.37 and that is 3 straight systems with decent rainfall totals but not so much where you see and flooding as much of it has gone into the ground as we start to replenish the streams and ponds.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:23 am
by MVWxObserver
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:06 am
Good morning, AV family! Sorry it has been a long silence from me but just been tending to everyday stuff. Hopefully I will now be able to post more often. Looks like lots of exciting changes upcoming! Picked up about 0.93" here so far. Hope all is doing well!
Great to see you back, Mike!
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:31 am
by tron777
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:06 am
Good morning, AV family! Sorry it has been a long silence from me but just been tending to everyday stuff. Hopefully I will now be able to post more often. Looks like lots of exciting changes upcoming! Picked up about 0.93" here so far. Hope all is doing well!
Glad to see your dome has broken too Mike! Hope to see you posting more now that our favorite season is upon us! Hope you and the family are well, man!
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 10:04 am
by tron777
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 11:50 am
by tpweather
Good Afternoon and a little surprise today as the sun peaked out for about 10-15 minutes and just got a heavy shower with thunder. I thought a drizzle would be all and maybe a light shower but that sun can no doubt work its magic.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 12:11 pm
by tron777
CVG is reporting a t-storm now too. 54 degrees.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 12:42 pm
by tron777
Getting a pretty heavy shower now in Mason.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 12:48 pm
by young pup
1.10 in the gauge so far today. Even have a nice chill to the air. My brother went into work at 4 this morning, said it was windy and the rain was blowing sideways. Probably got a little more rain then what the gauge had in it then.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 1:16 pm
by tron777
1.24" now at CVG.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 4:46 pm
by tron777
Good afternoon all! 1.34" now at CVG as a few more showers have passed thru. I am in the 1.30's here as is the Boone Co mesonet - 1.36" We can a break (although cloudy) until next week. Mon night into Wed is our next rain chance. Then we will be tracking the upper trough swinging thru, shot of cold air, and precip type. Timing also. Thurs night into Friday or delayed until the weekend? Coverage and how much all in question. The only thing I am highly confident on is rain and snow showers being likely. Can't really forecast much more then that this far out. Next week, certainly can. And we will!
Newly upgraded 12Z Euro has the big low next week much further south / slower too over MO instead of over Western MN / IA then lifting up into Wisc like the GFS. GFS also faster Thurs night and Fri where the Euro brings the upper low in right over AC Country and we are cold, cloudy, breezy with rain and snow showers persisting all weekend long (next weekend).
In the extended range, the Euro looks to be releasing the Arctic hounds as we head into December and while the GFS isn't warm, it just isn't as cold as what the Euro is suggesting. The location of the PNA ridge is perfect on the Euro for us. Better for East Coast on GFS.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 6:10 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 4:46 pm
Good afternoon all! 1.34" now at CVG as a few more showers have passed thru. I am in the 1.30's here as is the Boone Co mesonet - 1.36" We can a break (although cloudy) until next week. Mon night into Wed is our next rain chance. Then we will be tracking the upper trough swinging thru, shot of cold air, and precip type. Timing also. Thurs night into Friday or delayed until the weekend? Coverage and how much all in question. The only thing I am highly confident on is rain and snow showers being likely. Can't really forecast much more then that this far out. Next week, certainly can. And we will!
Newly upgraded 12Z Euro has the big low next week much further south / slower too over MO instead of over Western MN / IA then lifting up into Wisc like the GFS. GFS also faster Thurs night and Fri where the Euro brings the upper low in right over AC Country and we are cold, cloudy, breezy with rain and snow showers persisting all weekend long (next weekend).
In the extended range, the Euro looks to be releasing the Arctic hounds as we head into December and while the GFS isn't warm, it just isn't as cold as what the Euro is suggesting. The location of the PNA ridge is perfect on the Euro for us. Better for East Coast on GFS.
Les I hope the forecast holds and no doubt pretty much how we saw November and early December playing out. Mother Nature is trying her best to balance things out and though never perfect she will try her best. Does this mean a cold winter and the answer is maybe. I still like overall a milder winter but not by much with back and forth quite often. Do we see any big time cold outbreaks and again no way of knowing that either but I still believe precip wise is going to be above normal unless we get really cold for an extended period. Saw the creek along Pioneer Park today and yes its flowing quite nicely for the first time since spring.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 7:05 pm
by MVWxObserver
Both CVG / DAY reached 57 and CMH 55 today.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 8:04 pm
by cloudy72
Ended up with 1.15” total in my hood!
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 15, 2024 4:31 am
by tron777
Good morning all! I'd get those outdoor decorations up / Christmas Lights this weekend so you don't have to face the in climate weather in the longer term. We get rain chances of course Mon night thru Wed but the GFS and Euro now both agree on a more progressive outcome with the upper low coming in Wed night thru Thurs with rain and snow showers likely. Temps in the 30s for highs on Thurs of next week. ILN also has first flakes in our forecast now for Thursday!
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 15, 2024 5:05 am
by Bgoney
Ended up with 2.0” total in 24 hours. Highest such total in MBY all summer/fall not associated with a tropical system!!!!!
IMG_2617.png
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 15, 2024 5:12 am
by Bgoney
Not only is the LES machine going to fire up the last week or so of November but the West Virginia mountains will be doing well also
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 15, 2024 6:08 am
by tron777
LOL@ the 6Z GFS in the fantasy range. 1057 MB high entering S Canada in late November. Sure GFS. Yeah. Ok. That's impressive for the dead of winter let alone Fall.
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 15, 2024 6:37 am
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2024 6:08 am
LOL@ the 6Z GFS in the fantasy range. 1057 MB high entering S Canada in late November. Sure GFS. Yeah. Ok. That's impressive for the dead of winter let alone Fall.
Yea , that’s the same thing models were showing with next week’s cold high pressure at the same range. Remember the map I posted with a mid 1050s high and a hurricane affecting the lower 48? Gone-dee. A mid 1040s high is now looking more likely
Re: November 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 15, 2024 7:02 am
by tpweather
Good Morning and we are just about half way through the month and without another drop of rain we will be at least average which is something new. Before I start looking at items this morning one caught my eye and somehow I missed this from last October. A underwater volcano off the Japan coast last year was strong enough that a new island formed off the coast. I still believe the warmth off the coast of Japan and eastern Asia has been warmer than normal for a few reasons and one being the underwater Volcano's that go off and that is a ton or warmth heading towards the surface and also several years in a row with the tropical season in that part of the world being well below normal. Lucky this year those numbers have moved towards normal and maybe just maybe we are starting to see those waters cool down to at least somewhat reasonable temps because they have been so far above normal the last several years. Are there other items that cause the warmth and my guess yes but not sure what those would be. One thing to see sea temps average above normal for a period of time but the above normal off the coast of Japan was so out of whack there had to be reasons besides normal back and forth.
Let's see if we can get a +PNA / -EPO going too as modeling is suggesting, That actually means more to me then the -NAO in terms of getting a sustainable wintry pattern going.
