Absolute Vorticity

https://www.whio.com/news/local/nearly- ... BAJ3TGK54/

1740 UNK Greenville Darke OH 4010 8463 Several trees and powerlines down across the city of Greenville. Time estimated by radar. (ILN)

86 looks to be it at CVG today due to clouds and even a few showers around. Had a light shower on the way home from Colton's football game. The better rain is N of I-70 just some light shower activity coming in for us. 86 here today for my high.

EDIT: Cooper had a pick 6 yesterday in his game and scored on a 2 point conversion! Colton was the player of the game today due to his wonderful O-line blocking during his game.

1716 UNK 2 WSW Fountain City Wayne IN 3994 8496 Trees and wires down. (ILN)

1740 UNK Greenville Darke OH 4010 8463 Several trees and powerlines down across the city of Greenville. Time estimated by radar. (ILN)

1810 UNK 3 N Lockington Shelby OH 4025 8424 Reports of multiple trees and power lines downed. (ILN)

1816 UNK 1 NW Sidney Shelby OH 4030 8417 Several areas of downed trees in Shelby County ... including along Hardin-Wapak Road. Time estimated by radar. (ILN)

1835 UNK Jackson Center Shelby OH 4045 8404 Tree downed onto vehicle. (ILN)

1840 UNK 3 W North Hampton Clark OH 4000 8400 Multiple trees down near State Route 235 and 41. (ILN)

1849 UNK 3 NW North Hampton Clark OH 4002 8397 1 tree down. (ILN)

2339 3 NNW Yorktown Delaware IN 4021 8549 A landspout tornado briefly did damage to a structure in western Delaware County. The tornado was classified as an EF0 with 60 to 65mph winds. A pole barn on Cammack Street was heavily damaged. (IND)

2339 3 N Yorktown Delaware IN 4022 8548 Building damaged. Location and time are approximate based on radar. Rating to be determined. (IND)

2350 2 W Portland Jay IN 4043 8502 Roof damage to the Jay County Jr-Sr High School. Tree damage also reported near the school along with some roof damage to a few houses near the school. Time estimated by radar. (IWX)

2001 UNK 2 NNW West Union Adams OH 3882 8356 A tree was downed over Chapparal Road. (ILN)

2033 UNK 1 N Hillsboro Highland OH 3923 8361 Multiple trees downed. (ILN)

2057 UNK 4 SSE Leesburg Highland OH 3929 8354 Reports of trees down at intersection of Black Rabbit Road and Bridges Road. (ILN)

2111 UNK 3 E Rockholds Whitley KY 3683 8406 A tree was blown down and onto a power line on Meadow Creek Road about 3 miles east of Rockholds. The tree brought down the power line. (JKL)

A trace so far here for rain. It is very very light unfortunately.

CVG now on the board with 0.01"

Just got another 0.01 this afternoon. Best chances do look like that will happen later Monday and Tuesday. How much and will keep the same amounts as we do have some tropical moisture available. Later in the week and next weekend is one we need to watch and see how the possible Hurricane forms and where it heads. Still have nice ridging to the north and this has kept moisture limited to how far north it can reach. Does this ridging weaken enough where the moisture can work its way further north. Just to close of a call this far out and yes the storm has not even formed yet. Just happy the 90's are done for the year. Friends who have a place in Crested Butte in Colorado got their first snow overnight that is always nice to see

The Ensembles continue to show the blocking not breaking down whatsoever for the next 2 weeks at least. A massive block from Canada to Greenland will continue for the foreseeable future. The tropics are starting to wake up so that should (I hope) help out with keeping the 90s at bay now. I do not expect any cold air yet until the tropics are done (probably mid to late October timeframe).

OP GFS is on it’s own as far as the strength at landfall of the tropical system late week . EU/EPS even GEFs are nowhere near the strength of the GFS, at least for now

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CVG reached 86, DAY 91 and CMH 92 today.

Good morning! Well folks... it looks slim in the rainfall dept until tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow looks like the best chance for us this week until we see what happens in the tropics down in the Gulf. Expect temps in the 80s when it isn't raining and in the 70s when it does. These temps are still above normal, just not as bad as it has been thankfully.

Sit back and wait and hope the wettest model wins (Mon-wed).

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 23, 2024 6:31 am Sit back and wait and hope the wettest model wins (Mon-wed).

Unfortunately, the HRRR nailed the lack of rain that we saw for yesterday. 6Z run looks decent for folks along S of the river but for Ohio, it looks terrible for rainfall totals.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 6:11 pm The Ensembles continue to show the blocking not breaking down whatsoever for the next 2 weeks at least. A massive block from Canada to Greenland will continue for the foreseeable future. The tropics are starting to wake up so that should (I hope) help out with keeping the 90s at bay now. I do not expect any cold air yet until the tropics are done (probably mid to late October timeframe).

The Bering Sea/Aluetian Low parade is not slowing down. No cold airmass build up in Canada anytime soon with them remaining the most anomalous with warm temps

The last 13 days of September heat come in at #2 for the same period

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 23, 2024 7:46 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 6:11 pm The Ensembles continue to show the blocking not breaking down whatsoever for the next 2 weeks at least. A massive block from Canada to Greenland will continue for the foreseeable future. The tropics are starting to wake up so that should (I hope) help out with keeping the 90s at bay now. I do not expect any cold air yet until the tropics are done (probably mid to late October timeframe).

The Bering Sea/Aluetian Low parade is not slowing down. No cold airmass build up in Canada anytime soon with them remaining the most anomalous with warm temps

The +WPO / -PDO combo at work. Plus with a possible -IOD, that would favor MJO forcing down the road for the winter in phases 4-6 which is no good. Hopefully we see something change.

Lucky to get .45" overnight.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:11 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 23, 2024 7:46 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 6:11 pm The Ensembles continue to show the blocking not breaking down whatsoever for the next 2 weeks at least. A massive block from Canada to Greenland will continue for the foreseeable future. The tropics are starting to wake up so that should (I hope) help out with keeping the 90s at bay now. I do not expect any cold air yet until the tropics are done (probably mid to late October timeframe).

The Bering Sea/Aluetian Low parade is not slowing down. No cold airmass build up in Canada anytime soon with them remaining the most anomalous with warm temps

The +WPO / -PDO combo at work. Plus with a possible -IOD, that would favor MJO forcing down the road for the winter in phases 4-6 which is no good. Hopefully we see something change.

I do expect a shot of cooler temps that first week of October, ( 2-4 days), but right back to near normal temperatures afterwards

snowbo wrote: ↑Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:49 am Lucky to get .45" overnight.

Nice Bo!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:55 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:11 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 23, 2024 7:46 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 6:11 pm The Ensembles continue to show the blocking not breaking down whatsoever for the next 2 weeks at least. A massive block from Canada to Greenland will continue for the foreseeable future. The tropics are starting to wake up so that should (I hope) help out with keeping the 90s at bay now. I do not expect any cold air yet until the tropics are done (probably mid to late October timeframe).

The Bering Sea/Aluetian Low parade is not slowing down. No cold airmass build up in Canada anytime soon with them remaining the most anomalous with warm temps

The +WPO / -PDO combo at work. Plus with a possible -IOD, that would favor MJO forcing down the road for the winter in phases 4-6 which is no good. Hopefully we see something change.

I do expect a shot of cooler temps that first week of October, ( 2-4 days), but right back to near normal temperatures afterwards

True... behind the tropical mischief. Looking like highs around 70, lows around 50 kind of thing. A tad below normal I suppose. But I agree, it doesn't look very cold at all the overall pattern until the tropics are finished.

12z suite, so far is continuing the trend of large parts of the OV not receiving soaking qpf. There will still be some generous totals in sporadic batches while other areas are shortchanged

For late week the NHC has the hurricane interacting with the OV trough. Just to early to know how the distribution of precipitation will be for the region. But some added promise for parts of the region for this time period

I've been watching that too. What could happen (best case scenario if it does) is that we get the Fujiwhara effect where the low from Helene pin wheels around the upper low and everything gets stuck over the OV for a few days. That would really help put a dent in the drought. We need a lot of rain to get out of it but this would certainly be a step in the right direction.

12Z GFS is more of the same for tomorrow (scattered as Bgoney mentioned that most of the other models were showing) so I guess we have to pin our hopes now on soon to be Helene for Friday / the weekend.