Absolute Vorticity

There’s been plenty of improvement in soil moisture for a good chunk of the area along and north of 71 , but a good chunk near and south have not . Noting members posting some good qpf for the month of July.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 1:26 pm There’s been plenty of improvement in soil moisture for a good chunk of the area along and north of 71 , but a good chunk near and south have not . Noting members posting some good qpf for the month of July.

IMBY, it has improved. I'm actually going to have to mow finally later this week. If I recall, going into today, CVG was running 1" above normal in rainfall for July which is much better. June was awful! We were like 3 or 4" down for the month. It's been scattered though for sure. SE of I-71 certainly needs some help and especially out your way in Williamsburg. I do think that the extended range looks promising for the rest of July as far as rainfall is concerned, but you know how it works. Some will benefit, some won't.

88 so far for the high at CVG today. We may get a sneaky 90 in there.

Guidance continues to have a tough time handling the situation today, but no surprise there. We are destabilizing nicely across the region ahead of a low over the St. Louis area. We need to watch that closely as it heads east.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 2:41 pm Guidance continues to have a tough time handling the situation today, but no surprise there. We are destabilizing nicely across the region ahead of a low over the St. Louis area. We need to watch that closely as it heads east.

I just hope that the activity doesn't dive to the SE and miss us altogether. Some of the guidance from earlier was showing that since that is where the better instability has been, Or we just get scattered activity, etc. The boys are still using "locally heavy rain possible" wording for tonight thru tomorrow evening along with 100% POPS. We'll see I guess. I'm currently not impressed.

Isolated showers are popping over SE IN so we'll see if that can mature into anything meaningful or not. CVG also hit 90 as of 4pm so I'll update the contest thread for that. This will be the last 90 probably for at least a week... perhaps longer???

Latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A few showers and thunderstorms have started to pop up over
portions of southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky. Heat and
instability should allow for additional scattered thunderstorms
across the rest of the CWA, any of which could produce locally
gusty winds, however latest indications are that the more
widespread convection will occur after dark and into the
overnight hours. This would be instigated by a disturbance
across southern Illinois. The southern CWA is the most likely
area to be affected by this, and there is a risk for heavy
rainfall and localized flooding with this activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing
Wednesday morning, especially across southern and eastern
portions of the CWA. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will
continue to be a threat from these storms. The chance of storms
will persist until a cold front crosses the CWA. So will
continue with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across much
of the CWA until the front moves southeast during the late
afternoon and evening. Drier air will start to move in behind
the front, especially for Wednesday night.

High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be in the lower to
mid 80s, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north
to lower 60s south.

Biggest thing we have in our favor right now is the LLJ is still nearby and fairly strong. Cape is rather puny but hopefully enough to get things rolling

Just had a quick downpour here in Cheviot, so much for cutting grass this evening, oh well it was too humid anyway!

Storms to my north and south. The Dome is back!

CVG got to 91 and both DAY / CMH 90 today.

Have a lot of work to do to validate a flood watch

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 6:18 pm Have a lot of work to do to validate a flood watch

No doubt! Something better get going here soon or it's a huge bust

Regionally, we have the worst cape in cvgland. Better cape north of I70 and I64 south

been a hot week here so far but looks like relief the rest of the week and weekend. how does long range look? the rest of the month anyways?

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2024 4:01 am been a hot week here so far but looks like relief the rest of the week and weekend. how does long range look? the rest of the month anyways?

The rest of the month looks active and not as hot as it had been.

Good morning all and as expected, the flood watch was cancelled and everything occurred well south of us as we alluded too earlier. Only scattered action today then we cool down. We'll try again next week as we see a daily chance for storms just about every day starting on Monday.

Familiar scene, another summer-time nearby all-night soaker hundreds of miles wide that has become rare locally over the last several years

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2024 5:31 am Familiar scene, another summer-time nearby all-night soaker hundreds of miles wide that has become rare locally over the last several years

Agreed. We talked about the possibility yesterday and the 12Z guidance showed it very well. I figured the flood watch was in trouble when the modeling showed it. Plus the clouds for half the day killed our instability too.

As of 6am, CVG is reporting light rain so our S counties are at least getting clipped by the MCS. Probably only a hundredth or two though as it is very light.

Here we go again with debris clouds ruining our chances for some CAPE to build up ahead of the cold front. Deja Vu to yesterday.

Starting to see a few scattered storms popping over EC Indiana ahead of the cold front.

----

I might see a little rain with that incoming broken line. Fingers crossed!