Absolute Vorticity

Some light scattered showers developing in the tri- state as of 1pm. Hopefully we can see some intensification over the next few hours as our window is brief

Early this morning here in Greenville near sunrise there was a sporadic power outage. Here in the southern part of the city it was very brief, thankfully. On the way to church in the downtown area some traffic lights were still out but coming home they were operating again.

Had some much needed rainfall this morning for am very thankful. Never heard any thunder or saw any lightning so no idea whether that outage was wx-related or not.

UPDATE: Okay, just saw on the WHIO7 site that it was wx-related.

https://www.whio.com/news/local/nearly- ... F2OMQOBBM/

CVG reached 86 and both DAY / CMH 89'ed today.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jun 23, 2024 10:12 am A few sprinkles here, so no surprises. Complexes of storms that form far to our west are destined to die in our region with current pattern. Maybe something can fire up overhead later today

I picked up .80 inches from the complex this morning. It was starting to die out as it came through, but the Dayton area did ok in terms of rainfall.

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Our 7 day hot spell in the books and here’s where it ranked for the same period from the past , coming in at #2, and we’re all still here.!! Congratulations everyone!!!!

Yes it was hot but not horrible in terms of humidity and one reason most saw very little rain though I see near Dayton got some decent rains. We could really use a 2-3 day rainfall but seldom does that happen in the summer. I do like what I see for Wednesday as a even stronger cold front moves through plus the atmosphere should perk up later Tuesday and Wednesday. Could be some nice storms with thunder and lightning and hopefully some moderate rains. Don't think there will be enough to get rid of the short term drought but if we can get over an inch it helps and this may be the new pattern we see over the next few weeks where we get the heat moving in but showers and thundershowers attach us from the northwest. Still need to see where the high sets up but already this week its in the central plains compared to the northeast last week. This is a more common place for late June/early July. Enjoy today and Thursday as we have lower humidity and near normal temps.

We talked about in the winter when Alaska gets warm we tend to get cold. Alaska is really getting warm this week but its different in the summer since the jet stream is much further north. Saying that much of Canada is going to be very cool for early summer and they have done well this month in terms of rainfall and one reason we are not seeing the wild fires in the western part of the state. What is happening though is the ridge that will set up somewhere in the central USA like usual this time of year will have the ring of fire. Sometimes with the ring of fire it last 1 or 2 weeks and then it dies off. This year though we have tons of tropical moisture in the GOM that can flow north plus system in southern Canada or extreme northern USA that will be able to form several MCS complexes in the coming weeks. These dive south and southeast but hard to pinpoint exactly until they form. This does not mean 100p/c we get rain but the odds do go up this season and hopefully it becomes widespread over the eastern USA.

If you want cold and snow go to Greenland as they look to have some active weather though the climate folks would never mention this in their weekly newsletter lol

Hey Tim,

Today's outlook forecast potentially MCS development for MN and WI.

Driving around neighborhoods today there’s a Big difference in lawns compared to last week . Most are brown and headed to a dormant stage, and it’s only June. Been 2 weeks since I mowed mby and have no plans in doing it anytime soon

I'm back in town and the same is true for mby. It's getting dry around here as well.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jun 24, 2024 7:08 am Hey Tim,

Today's outlook forecast potentially MCS development for MN and WI.

Hey Eric and been very stormy at my son's house. Going up there sometime this summer and the chain saw will be in use. They went from a short term drought to tons of rain in a short period of time. Once again Mother Nature working her magic though it sometimes does not fit our time schedules.

Getting dry though the brief shower last night help the plants and you can water all the time but even a brief period of moderate rain will do wonders on flowers. Getting a big set up with cool air to the north in the northern plains and upper mid-west and heat more towards the south and we should be in the cross-hairs and hopefully some decent rains. Saying that it also could produce a few severe mcs complexes and something we need to watch over the next 2 weeks

I sure hope we can get something on the order of 1/2" plus on either Tues or Wed. That would really help things out. Also hope we can get something prior to my fireworks party as well to dampen things down before I start blowing things up!

Looks like I hit 86 today and CVG topped out at at least 87. The best chance for our contest with regards to the 90s are tomorrow, maybe Friday and definitely for Saturday as well. That should be it for the rest of June.

CVG got to 88, DAY 85 and CMH 86 today.

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Good morning folks! We do stand the risk of t-storms today but the chances IMO are not that high at least for Cincinnati. North and West of us stands the best chance. Tomorrow on the other hand looks pretty good. We look to stand the chance at getting multiple rounds of storms should everything time out right. In this set up. one round of storms will impact the next round of storms in terms of moisture and instability that each round will have to work with. Hopefully, we can all get hit by one or two of these rounds. 3-4 rounds are possible over the next 48 hours. We even have a marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday should we get hit by an MCS. Not all hires models agree so it's a wait and see game like usual.

Post frontal, a gorgeous Thurs with low humidity and highs 80 to 85. Upper 80s Fri with perhaps a sneaky 90 before the humid and hot weather returns for Sat along with the threat for scattered storms. The 80s on Sunday with more storm chances as we get another frontal passage that drops us back into the 80s to start off our new week on Monday.

Good Morning Les and welcome back. Many times with the upcoming chances of rain on Wednesday we tend to get the shaft. One reason is we get several days of hot air in here and the atmosphere tends to dry up in certain layers. In this case we had the nice day yesterday and a surge of warm moist air today so with the front coming in on Wednesday those other layers are still moist and makes it easier to maintain any cluster of storms that fire up. Do we hit severe levels and not sure but plenty of thunder and lightning looks like a good bet. I am going .5-1 inch and hopefully that is widespread and hopefully I am low on those totals. Will it end the short term drought that has started and the answer is no but every bit of rain helps. Looks like we repeat this pattern late this week into the weekend and once again chances a tad higher than normal imo.

Good morning Tim and thanks! Would love to get a nice 1/2" soaker just to settle the dust if nothing else. Things are getting pretty crispy out there in my hood. Severe wx would just be a bonus, I'm far more interested in getting some rain.

Good Morning Les and yes would be nice to settle the dust and I tend to get hay fever when it gets dry and that has happened already. My son got nearly another inch of rain overnight and his pond which at one time was very low has overflown the banks plus he has a big part of a tree that blew over in one of the recent storms so when I go up there in a few weeks its time to get the old chain saw out.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 6:17 am Good Morning Les and yes would be nice to settle the dust and I tend to get hay fever when it gets dry and that has happened already. My son got nearly another inch of rain overnight and his pond which at one time was very low has overflown the banks plus he has a big part of a tree that blew over in one of the recent storms so when I go up there in a few weeks its time to get the old chain saw out.

Yeah. MN and Wisc have been getting hammered with severe storms and a lot of flooding also. That looks to continue for a while too. They went from a drought to now too much rain in a matter of just a few days / week.

I like a 1/5 risk for Cincy and 2/5 west for later today. Forecast confidence is on the lower side. If we can get higher CAPE values than modeled by the CAMs, we could even see 2/5 being needed here.

I think later today and tonight will actually be when we see most of our thunderstorms and not as much tomorrow. I have a feeling tomorrow most of the heavy action will be south as that is where I think the boundary will likely set up from today/tonight's storms.

The NAM has action later on tonight into tomorrow morning, then another round tomorrow afternoon with an actual surface low moving thru. The HRRR is more along the lines of Trev's above post showing our next chance tonight into early tomorrow.