Absolute Vorticity

At least we’re in a spot where if showers do develop, they are moving fairly quickly, unlike SE Ohio where under the low , movement is slow or training

73 so far here today with not much to report in the rainfall dept which again I am totally cool with. Most everything I have seen has been highly localized. You either get hammered or get little to nothing. That has been the trend I have noticed today.

Good Afternoon and had a few brief showers to day but nothing to write home about. Will be interesting to see some totals later today. Another system Friday and early Saturday but its next week that has my interest as we start to see a nice temp gradient and depending where a high builds and gets strong we may start to see some MCS action as late May through mid-July is prime time for those systems to form. Of course with those you can get some heavy rains and straight line winds. Even if they don't form there is a signal for some strong to severe weather once again in the plains that move eastward over time. When the hit that looks to build in the southeast heads north it can run into a wetter than normal ground and this tends to really amp up the dew points which in turn gives us better shots at more rain when a piece of energy moves through the area.

I am looking at next Thursday-Sunday as I will be heading to Nashville,Tn next Thursday for a friends daughter who is getting married on Friday. Then I return on Saturday and a niece is getting married and then on Sunday going to the Reds game and by Memorial Day I will be ready to rest lol.

In the short term, Friday and Saturday still looks to offer up a wet period. I am going dry Sunday and Monday of next week but more POPS are required from Tuesday into Wed of next week as the active pattern shows no signs of letting up. It's a bit early for a solid Memorial Day weekend forecast but my early guess would be for stormy weather, possibly even severe if everything breaks just right. The 12Z GFS stalls a frontal boundary out across the area and we get hammered with heavy rain and t-storms from time to time. Not good for those with outdoor plans. The 12Z Euro it just starting to see Fri / Sat (5/24-5/25) and it's slower with the arrival of that front so we have time to get the timing down for sure being this far away (Days 10-14 period). Obviously, no need to change your plans but I would keep one eye open as I like to say and start thinking about a back up plan should something like the GFS actually pan out.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2024 5:26 pm In the short term, Friday and Saturday still looks to offer up a wet period. I am going dry Sunday and Monday of next week but more POPS are required from Tuesday into Wed of next week as the active pattern shows no signs of letting up. It's a bit early for a solid Memorial Day weekend forecast but my early guess would be for stormy weather, possibly even severe if everything breaks just right. The 12Z GFS stalls a frontal boundary out across the area and we get hammered with heavy rain and t-storms from time to time. Not good for those with outdoor plans. The 12Z Euro it just starting to see Fri / Sat (5/24-5/25) and it's slower with the arrival of that front so we have time to get the timing down for sure being this far away (Days 10-14 period). Obviously, no need to change your plans but I would keep one eye open as I like to say and start thinking about a back up plan should something like the GFS actually pan out.

Could be hit or miss for the 500 next weekend. A lot of time to watch.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2024 5:07 pm Good Afternoon and had a few brief showers to day but nothing to write home about. Will be interesting to see some totals later today. Another system Friday and early Saturday but its next week that has my interest as we start to see a nice temp gradient and depending where a high builds and gets strong we may start to see some MCS action as late May through mid-July is prime time for those systems to form. Of course with those you can get some heavy rains and straight line winds. Even if they don't form there is a signal for some strong to severe weather once again in the plains that move eastward over time. When the hit that looks to build in the southeast heads north it can run into a wetter than normal ground and this tends to really amp up the dew points which in turn gives us better shots at more rain when a piece of energy moves through the area.

I am looking at next Thursday-Sunday as I will be heading to Nashville,Tn next Thursday for a friends daughter who is getting married on Friday. Then I return on Saturday and a niece is getting married and then on Sunday going to the Reds game and by Memorial Day I will be ready to rest lol.

Hi Tim,

Enjoy the weddings, bro! That Sunday game vs the Dodgers could be a groaner.

CVG got to 74 and both DAY / CMH 72 on Wed.

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2024 7:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2024 5:26 pm In the short term, Friday and Saturday still looks to offer up a wet period. I am going dry Sunday and Monday of next week but more POPS are required from Tuesday into Wed of next week as the active pattern shows no signs of letting up. It's a bit early for a solid Memorial Day weekend forecast but my early guess would be for stormy weather, possibly even severe if everything breaks just right. The 12Z GFS stalls a frontal boundary out across the area and we get hammered with heavy rain and t-storms from time to time. Not good for those with outdoor plans. The 12Z Euro it just starting to see Fri / Sat (5/24-5/25) and it's slower with the arrival of that front so we have time to get the timing down for sure being this far away (Days 10-14 period). Obviously, no need to change your plans but I would keep one eye open as I like to say and start thinking about a back up plan should something like the GFS actually pan out.

Could be hit or miss for the 500 next weekend. A lot of time to watch.

The latest GFS has at least a day and a half of dry weather in there, but it doesn't look good for Memorial Day. Anyway, plenty of time to watch as we've both mentioned. Hopefully we get a better outcome once it's into the Euro's wheelhouse.

Good morning all... a lovely Thursday on tap! Then as you know, we are wet Friday and part of Sat. A nice Sunday into early next week before POPS return. I know I sound like a broken record day after day but when you're in a drought, or in this case, an active pattern, whatcha see is whatcha get!

In the long term, not only is the active pattern going to continue, but Trev and other pro Mets as well, have been banging the severe wx drum pretty hard especially towards the later portion of May and into early June. The CIPS analog guidance, CFS, and other long term models are all suggesting this. The action starts in the Plains next week and we may also be getting involved ourselves as Trev mentioned yesterday (Tues / Wed timeframe for next week). But even if that fails from a severe wx standpoint, I think a better chance for that is coming late May into early June. I know Tim mentioned a possible MCS pattern by then, and I am seeing the same signals on the models that back up this idea. Stay tuned to our forum as always folks for the latest information as it becomes available.

And if you have never entered one of our forum contests, please feel free to do so as our 90 degree days contest for CVG will be getting underway in just 2 short weeks.

Good Morning Les and wonderful post!!! Just a busy spring for many in the plains,southeast and Ohio Valley and really reminds me of what springtime was like as a kid with rain,storms but also days like today of sun and nice. When I started seeing the trough showing up in the northern plains more and more plus the heat building in the southeast along with the dry air in the southwest this no doubt looked like a good sign of severe weather. Just like any period where many things come together its not 100p/c shot by any means but the odds are higher than normal to get some severe weather. Much easier for the atmosphere to recover from any morning activity because we are heading into late May and we saw this yesterday that the sun came out especially folks east of here and storms popped.

I expect by next week the A/C may be coming on as temps get in the 80's but the more important factor dew points I expect to head over the 70 mark. With the vegetation doing quite well keeping those dew points high is rather easy and nighttime lows will be slow to fall. Is this the final episode of the El Nino and I have no ideal but I still worry at sometime the rains stop and we become hot and dry though it may be the second half of summer if it happens because I am still not sold on the hot and dry weather and until I see a point that the rains have ended for the most part I will take a careful stand on the summer forecast

Tim... We are definitely making up for lost time in the rainfall dept. as the last couple of years have been dry in some areas in the OV. No shortage of rain for anybody (that I can recall) at this point in time. The action looks to continue as we've been talking about. You know the old saying... rain begets rain, drought begets drought. In the rainfall dept, I think that applies here. It is easier to get storms to fire when you have lush, green vegetation and a good supply of low level moisture due to a wet ground. We continue to see persistent troughs diving into the region with stronger then normal cold fronts for the time of year. All of these things I think are factors with our current, and continued pattern.

Since we are transitioning to a La Nina, it makes sense as to why the severe wx for the Nation as a whole has been well above normal, and especially tornadoes. It has been documented by scientists that you can get active springs that feature a lot of severe wx and tornadoes when you get a Nina. This is partly due to troughs ejecting from the Rockies, tapping into the Gulf moisture. Then you have nice and cool air masses trying to dive in from the NW at 500 MB and boom! You get that classic clash of air masses which is needed for severe wx to occur.

Concerning the summer forecast, La Nina summers are typically hotter and drier then avg for a good chunk of the country which is why I have said that a few times on our forum already. However, the script doesn't always follow what you think it should do. We know that all too well with regards to seasonal forecasting in the winter time. Well, the summer months are no different. The repeated troughs, should they continue this summer would be more indicative of an El Nino versus a La Nina so it'll be interesting as time goes on to see how long this pattern can keep going. I see it going into early June at this point, but for how long after that, I do not know. July and August could turn hot if the faucet gets turned off at some point in June which again would follow the La Nina script pretty darn well!

By the way.... mid June (a month from now) is when we typically avg our first 90 degree day high for the season. This is for Cincinnati. Something to think about for those planning to enter the contest.

Yesterday morning I checked the rain total and had 0.11 but with the sudden downpours in the afternoon ended up with 0.87. Can tell we are getting closer to summer with totals that will vary quite a bit. I believe that happens with the system Friday and Saturday as well and hopefully we don't see the stalling of showers in the same area like we saw yesterday.

I'm going with the notion of a pretty good soaking Fri afternoon / overnight with lingering action on Saturday. I think 0.50 to 1" is a good range. Some will see less and others more of course as is usually the case when t-storms are involved.

Hey Les I am going with a little less than you and 0.25-0.75 but again winners and losers as usual

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2024 11:15 am Hey Les I am going with a little less than you and 0.25-0.75 but again winners and losers as usual

That's fair Tim. It is basically almost the same call.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2024 11:31 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2024 11:15 am Hey Les I am going with a little less than you and 0.25-0.75 but again winners and losers as usual

That's fair Tim. It is basically almost the same call.

Exactly Les and really it comes down to a region that may end up getting an extra few hours of rainfall for a few hours or like yesterday some downpours that can add up quickly

74 / 58 at CVG as of the 2pm reading. Probably can tack in a bit more for the temp for the 3pm obs. Anyway, a nice day today before we see how much rain we get tomorrow into Sat.

79 here for today. Rain chances look to be highest tomorrow, Saturday and then for next week, Tues night into Wed. Not sure yet for the timing on next week's system. It could be after midnight Tues night or wait until Wed morning. We shall see once we get closer.

CVG, DAY and CMH all reached 80 today.

Good morning all! We have another wet AM commute in progress as a batch of rain with a few embedded t-storms moves thru. Nothing is severe at all. Only a hundredth or two has fallen over CVG / My Hood's area thus far. We should see a break around 10-12pm with re-development possible esp S of the River for this afternoon and evening. Again, no severe wx is expected. We will then have to keep a chance of storms in the forecast for tomorrow although the chances do not look to be as high as they once were so we should see some dry hours in there also. Going dry Sun - Tues with low to mid 80s for highs. Tues night into Wed of next week is our next chance with possible stronger storms Wed afternoon and evening. Could also see a lingering shower into Thurs of next week as highs drop back into the 70s.

As of 8am, CVG is up to 0.05"

Great Post Les and looks like a rainy morning with varying degrees of intensity but everyone should get wet. The Sunday-Tuesday is a preview of early summer though I believe some of the models are just a tad to high on temps with all the vegetation around and probably able to see a build of clouds in the 11a-2pm everyday only to break out in sun later and this is typical of summer. Middle of next week looks busy and will just watch to see if the severe weather comes into play. The wet spring continues on with no let up in sight.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2024 8:14 am Great Post Les and looks like a rainy morning with varying degrees of intensity but everyone should get wet. The Sunday-Tuesday is a preview of early summer though I believe some of the models are just a tad to high on temps with all the vegetation around and probably able to see a build of clouds in the 11a-2pm everyday only to break out in sun later and this is typical of summer. Middle of next week looks busy and will just watch to see if the severe weather comes into play. The wet spring continues on with no let up in sight.

I think the mid 80s are doable with wall to wall sunshine. If we do see some PM clouds then probably the lower 80s will work. Other then that, we are in 100% agreement. CVG did manage 80 yesterday which was a degree or two higher then I had in the forecast.