Absolute Vorticity

TS Patty is moving towards the Azores so we are not worried about her. The Caribbean wave now has a 90% chance. Fantasy GFS shows 2 named systems in total coming from that same general area. One we know is going to form here shortly.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 12:33 pm TS Patty is moving towards the Azores so we are not worried about her. The Caribbean wave now has a 90% chance. Fantasy GFS shows 2 named systems in total coming from that same general area. One we know is going to form here shortly.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Prayerfully soon-to-be Rafael stays away from the US.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 76.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 76.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Enter TS Rafael!

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES NEAR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 17.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 20.3N 80.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 22.2N 82.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 25.8N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 26.8N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 27.8N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

I see they even have a tropical storm watch for the lower keys in Florida. Does the storm impact the USA and the answer is yes but does it come ashore is a different answer. With the USA becoming busier this does hurt chances that a storm will be intact or even able to move close to the short before weakening. It can thrown moisture northward and with another front expected late this week into the weekend it could help us in getting a nice dose of rainfall. Will just need to watch once this first front moves away from us on Wednesday

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:09 am I see they even have a tropical storm watch for the lower keys in Florida. Does the storm impact the USA and the answer is yes but does it come ashore is a different answer. With the USA becoming busier this does hurt chances that a storm will be intact or even able to move close to the short before weakening. It can thrown moisture northward and with another front expected late this week into the weekend it could help us in getting a nice dose of rainfall. Will just need to watch once this first front moves away from us on Wednesday

I'm hoping that Rafael will bring up some moisture our way ahead of the front due in here for Sunday. Fingers crossed that the timing will work out as such.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:21 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:09 am I see they even have a tropical storm watch for the lower keys in Florida. Does the storm impact the USA and the answer is yes but does it come ashore is a different answer. With the USA becoming busier this does hurt chances that a storm will be intact or even able to move close to the short before weakening. It can thrown moisture northward and with another front expected late this week into the weekend it could help us in getting a nice dose of rainfall. Will just need to watch once this first front moves away from us on Wednesday

I'm hoping that Rafael will bring up some moisture our way ahead of the front due in here for Sunday. Fingers crossed that the timing will work out as such.

I agree Les that would be nice as getting tropical moisture to feed into a front is no doubt a nice combo.

Yes it would be great to get some liquid gold from Rafael.

Prayerfully won't lead to anymore flooding in the Appalachians corridor though e.g.

Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
WESTERN JAMAICA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 78.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 81.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

Rafael and where does this system end up going is the main question. Looks like it slows down in the GOM and is just waiting for the light to turn green. Yes a tropical system in the GOM this time of year is rare but not unheard of but this is why models are having a harder time in figuring out the path because we have little information with a system at this time of year. The path by the NHS and different models almost have a fork in the road in the central GOM and we wait and see which path if either the storm takes. It should weaken imo as the atmosphere is starting to act more like what we see in the later fall period and not late summer. Either way with the slower movement it may miss the front coming in this weekend but still have time to watch this though if the storm takes the northern path it could still throw some moisture northward towards us

We should now more in a few more days once we see the timing of our Sunday front and where Rafael is at that point.

Good Afternoon and a nice hurricane near Cuba today. Still imo this system will not hit the mainland USA as a tropical system. Not even sure there will be a low that hits the mainland USA as some models have it sort of drying or heading to northern Mexico. If this system takes the more northern path then yes moisture can works its way into the USA but and that is fine as many folks can still use the rainfall

After last night’s results, 12z EU says Rafael changes course and is going to try to make it to Mexico

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 3:48 pm After last night’s results, 12z EU says Rafael changes course and is going to try to make it to Mexico

GFS peters it out. This may not be a big threat to the US other then heavy rain. Looks like shear and cooler GOM waters will weaken it in a few days.

Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

...RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 84.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES

NHC's track has it moving west towards Mexico then stalling lol

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:14 am Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

...RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 84.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES

NHC's track has it moving west towards Mexico then stalling lol

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

What would cause it to potentially stall? Ridging over Mexico?

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 7:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:14 am Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

...RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 84.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES

NHC's track has it moving west towards Mexico then stalling lol

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

What would cause it to potentially stall? Ridging over Mexico?

It looks like the trough won't dig far enough south to pick up Rafael and send it northward so it will slow way down as it heads towards Mexico. Some guidance keeps it over the water and it peters out after a week or so. It is not a slam dunk that Rafael hits any additional land areas.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:12 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 7:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 4:14 am Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

...RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 84.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES

NHC's track has it moving west towards Mexico then stalling lol

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

What would cause it to potentially stall? Ridging over Mexico?

It looks like the trough won't dig far enough south to pick up Rafael and send it northward so it will slow way down as it heads towards Mexico. Some guidance keeps it over the water and it peters out after a week or so. It is not a slam dunk that Rafael hits any additional land areas.

I agree Les and this is exactly what I saw happening over the past 2 weeks. I saw some forecasters and talking met's who were just way to early on predicting the tropical area in the GOM. Models have never agreed on this which is always a caution.Can we get some added moisture from the GOM this weekend and sure but we are not getting a deep moisture feed into our area.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

...RAFAEL TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

...RAFAEL MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 88.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Rafael is now down to a TS with winds of 65 mph moving WNW at 6. It looks like this system is going to meander around over the Gulf and eventually go into Mexico or die out.