March 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Radar is really lighting up ahead of the front now. A multistate severe wx episode is in progress. Numerous t-storm warnings and one tor warning for that activity over North Central IN and NW Ohio. T-storm and TOR warnings as well over Southern ILL too.

[tron777]

15Z SREF coming in with the highest TOR probability running from IND at 75% into NW Ohio at 60%. We are at 45% tonight over most of our forum area.

[Angelika]

Very cool huge distant cloud. Wonder if it's already a storm in progress? Looking southeast.

[tron777]

Mesoscale update from IND as of 5pm:

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 508 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Current satellite imagery shows a vast area of clearing behind this
morning`s convective complex. Rapid atmospheric recovery has
occurred, and temperatures from I-70 southward have warmed into the
lower 70s. A cumulus field has developed, stretching from Illinois
into Indiana. Visually, the cumulus has a wavy and flat appearance
signifying low-level stability. Across northern Illinois, smooth
stratus is flowing southward behind a cold front which can be seen
as a thin line of cloud cover spreading south and east. Convective
initiation has occurred along this boundary across our northern
counties near Lafayette. Further south and west, a more unstable
layer signified by ragged and agitated cumulus has since erupted
with convective near and west of St Louis. Anvil cirrus from these
storms should spread northeast into Indiana over the next several
hours.

Taking a look at sounding data out of IND, we`ll see pronounced low-
level capping inversion around 850mb with steep lapse rates above it
(7.2 C/Km). Surface lapse rates have been increasing as well as the
lower boundary layer continues to recover. Interestingly enough, the
850mb cap has been descending with time which signifies larger-scale
subsidence. Indeed, model data shows neutral to even slight height
rises through the afternoon. This could also be partly from residual
subsidence behind the departing MCS. This may be a mitigating factor
for convective coverage this afternoon...at least for a little
while. Should the cap and broad subsidence persist, convection may
become limited to the cold front itself as it progresses
southeastward. With a shear vector nearly parallel to the boundary,
quick upscale growth is possible. Hodographs are mainly long and
straight, with some low-level curvature from IND south and westward.
Shear values over 60 knots are more than enough to support
supercells upon initiation, or while things remain discrete. A
transition to a mainly linear mode is likely as the evening
progresses.

In terms of convective hazards, IND soundings show a wide and tall
CAPE profile with values between 1500-2000 J/kg. A large amount of
the CAPE falls within the hail growth zone and winds increase
markedly from there upward for good storm top ventilation. Long
straight hodographs, large CAPE, and steep lapse rates mean large
hail is one of the primary hazards this afternoon (especially north
of I-70). With how high the instability stretches, any discrete
cells / supercells may be able to generate hail over 2" in diameter.
The best chance for this would be shortly after initiation, before
any upscale growth occurs. Secondary threats include damaging winds,
as enough momentum remains in the low-level jet to be transfered
downward by strong cores. Finally, the threat for tornadoes is
also there as some curvature exists in the lowest 1km of the
hodograph (which is mainly long and straight above that) along
with abundant low- level buoyancy.

There also exists a low risk for flash flooding, especially if any
storm training occurs.

[tron777]

Very cool huge distant cloud. Wonder if it's already a storm in progress? Looking southeast.

There is a small t-shower that popped near Loveland / Pleasant Plain area.

EDIT: And a dying pin hole shower near Forest Park.

[dce]

Tornado warning just popped for Mercer county Ohio which is up by Celina.

[Angelika]

Ha! I think I see my cloud on radar. It's the tiny long one on the Butler/ Hamilton Co line.

[tron777]

We are still a bit capped from the departing storms. Once the front gets closer the cap will erode but anything that tries to get going right now won't last long.

Latest HRRR has pre frontal action over Central KY and the main line getting here in that 11pm to 1am window.

[tron777]

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Mercer County in west central Ohio...

* Until 715 PM EDT.

* At 647 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles northwest of Coldwater, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Celina, Coldwater, St. Henry, Rockford, Wabash, Mendon, Chickasaw,
Montezuma, Chattanooga, Tama, Maria Stein, Neptune, and Carthagena.

[tron777]

STP is still good at a 3 across the region. STP - Significant Tornado Parameter

[tron777]

VTP - Violent Tornado Parameter is now maximized at a 7 near Dayton.

[tron777]

CAP is breaking north of us for sure. That trend should continue to the south and east as the evening wears on.

From the SPC as of 6:30 our time:

Mesoscale Discussion 0240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Central Indiana into west-central Ohio

Concerning...Tornado Watch 44...

Valid 142228Z - 150000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 44 continues.

SUMMARY...Large/very-large hail will remain the primary threat with
ongoing storms. The tornado threat may increase early this evening
conditional on storms remaining discrete.

DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has continued to increase in central
Indiana into west-central Ohio. These discrete storms will continue
to be capable of large/very-large (1.5-2.5 in.) hail given the
strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. Low-level
shear is not overly strong as surface flow remains rather veered.
However, there is an expected increase in the low-level jet within
the mid/upper Ohio Valley this evening. This 850 mb flow will also
be veered, but storms that can remain discrete into the early
evening may pose an increased risk of a tornado.

..Wendt.. 03/14/2024

[tron777]

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Auglaize County in west central Ohio...

* Until 730 PM EDT.

* At 702 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Celina, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Fort Shawnee, Cridersville, New Knoxville,
Moulton, Buckland, Fryburg, Kossuth and Bulkhead.

[tron777]

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR AUGLAIZE
COUNTY...

At 711 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near St. Marys, moving east at 45 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. Auglaize County EMA
reported a tornado producing damage.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Fort Shawnee, Cridersville, New Knoxville,
Moulton, Buckland, Fryburg, Kossuth, State Route 116 at State Route
197, and Bulkhead.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 106 and 118.

[tron777]

I'd say it is close to US 33 from St Mary's then getting over into Wapa. is the prime zone right now.

[tron777]

A couple of cells trying to get going SE of ILN and Washington CH but they are weak at this time. Big storms N of IND and Muncie IN. ILL and MO, AR, OK, TX. An impressive radar tonight.

[tron777]

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Delaware County in east central Indiana...

* Until 745 PM EDT.

* At 721 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Muncie, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and hail up to two inches in diameter.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Muncie, Yorktown, and Ball State University around 725 PM EDT.
Selma around 730 PM EDT.

This includes Interstate 69 between mile markers 239 and 247.

[tron777]

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Shelby County in west central Ohio...
Northwestern Logan County in west central Ohio...
Northeastern Auglaize County in west central Ohio...
Southwestern Hardin County in west central Ohio...

* Until 800 PM EDT.

* At 727 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 3 miles south of Wapakoneta, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Wapakoneta, Cridersville, Jackson Center, Russells Point, Botkins,
Lakeview, Waynesfield, Belle Center, Chippewa Park, Northwood,
Roundhead, Rushsylvania, Huntsville, Uniopolis, Fryburg, Jumbo, St.
Johns, Walton, New Hampshire, and State Route 195 at State Route
235.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 104 and 117.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

Tornado Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
748 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

INC135-150030-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240315T0030Z/
Randolph IN-
748 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR RANDOLPH
COUNTY...

At 748 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles southeast of Albany, or 12 miles east of Muncie,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
Winchester around 755 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Union City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

$$

Nield

[Angelika]

I hope Eric is in the basement. I believe his area is under a tornado warning attm.

[MVWxObserver]

TOR warning siren has been on here in Greenville and still going. My folks and I took shelter in a walk-in closet for a while as a warning for G'ville went until about 8:30. Dad has a radio that's been having coverage by WHIO7 mets and we also picked up an Indiana station WLBC with tornado damage / destruction reports, too.

Although nothing like a major outbreak (April 3rd, 1974), this evening in some ways reminds me of that memory.

[MVWxObserver]

I hope Eric is in the basement. I believe his area is under a tornado warning attm.

Hi Angelika,

My folks and I took shelter for a while in a walk-in closet as we had an initial warning until 8:30. Warning siren is still wailing on and off.

[MVWxObserver]

1822 6 SW Vevay Switzerland IN 3869 8516 Damage to structures. Likely tornado. Time estimated. (ILN)

2251 9 NW Coldwater Mercer OH 4057 8474 Structural damage on Skeels Road. Tornado sighted by Fire Department. Time estimated. (ILN)

2303 4 NNW Mount Blanchard Hancock OH 4095 8358 Law enforcement observed a tornado at OH-37 and Township Road 168. (CLE)

2308 4 NW Saint Marys Auglaize OH 4059 8445 EMA reports large tornado on the ground north of Highway 33 near the Auglaize/Mercer county line. Time estimated. (ILN)

2339 UNK 1 WNW Selma Delaware IN 4019 8529 Damage to homes and trees. Possible tornado. Time estimated from radar. (IND)

2349 Lakeview Logan OH 4049 8393 Multiple buildings destroyed in the Lakeview area. Time estimated. (ILN)

0003 Winchester Randolph IN 4017 8498 Wind damage in Winchester. Pictures videos and reports suggest likely tornado. Not confirmed. Time estimated from radar. (IND)

0003 4 W Plymouth Huron OH 4100 8274 Fire department reported half-mile wide tornado crossing State Route 103 near the Crawford County OH and Huron County line. Report relayed by emergency management. (CLE)

[MVWxObserver]

I'm in south Greenville and so that area south of Muncie toward Richmond will probably be next for Darke Co.