Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:23 pm That wind chill means business, what a slap in the face. Brrrrrr

The bad news is... it'll be windy over the next week with continued systems moving on by and continued arctic air intrusions.

Unbelievable, the football game in buffalo got postponed. Sign of the times

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:41 pm Unbelievable, the football game in buffalo got postponed. Sign of the times

Wow... I can't believe it! I was so looking to watching a big time snow game too. So sad... And... the game tonight at 8pm between the Chiefs and Dolphins is another Peacock only game so I won't be able to see that one either.

12Z Euro for next Thurs / Fri shows a fairly weak system overall. Definitely the weakest of all models along with the UKIE. The southern wave shears out and the northern wave is weak. The flow overall is flat so nothing can dig or amplify. 0.02" for QPF on Thurs for CVG with 0.05" Fri morning is currently being shown.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:41 pm Unbelievable, the football game in buffalo got postponed. Sign of the times

I would hardly call that a sign of the times. There’s a full travel ban for Saturday night and Erie County is under a state of emergency. Holding a football game would be irresponsible, and allocating resources where they are not needed and deter from other essential needs.

The arctic front tonight IMO is going to be the "bigger" event out of everything we are tracking right now. I like what I am seeing here. I think most folks should get up to 1/2" with a few localized amounts of 1" not out of the question. Current radar shows an area of light snow over North Central MO heading in our direction. I continue to see some frontogenic forcing to our to west associated with this activity. Dewpoints are increasing ahead of the front from S MO all the way up the OH River Valley and into the Tri-state as moisture pools ahead of the arctic frontal boundary. I also like the EPV and saturation into the DGZ. Lapse rates in the mid levels are also very steep over S MO in the 8 to 8.5C range. Overall, all of these mesoscale things I am talking about should aide in a decent amount of snow shower activity tonight with the arctic frontal passage. Models won't show much QPF but every bit of moisture will get squeezed out of the atmosphere since the airmass is arctic in nature. Snow ratios will be high as well so a little amount of QPF will go a long way. The ground is plenty cold now so every flake will stick and wind gusting to 30 mph will make the snow coming down tonight look impressive at times. If you have travel plans late evening, overnight or early tomorrow morning, I'd watch out for some slick spots esp. on any untreated roads.

18Z HRRR shows a general 1/2" tonight for most locations with localized 1" amounts esp in our SE counties.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:41 pm Unbelievable, the football game in buffalo got postponed. Sign of the times

Totally agree. The freezer bowl in 1982 between the chargers and bengals with wind chill temps of -59F would never be played today. Bunch of overpaid pampered players today.

Pete1 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 2:38 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:41 pm Unbelievable, the football game in buffalo got postponed. Sign of the times

Totally agree. The freezer bowl in 1982 between the chargers and bengals with wind chill temps of -59F would never be played today. Bunch of overpaid pampered players today.

I disagree. KC-Miami will be played in bitter cold. The snow in Buffalo is a different story. The last big storm they had up there caused multiple deaths. I agree with Aaron that postponing the game is a smart decision in order to allocate resources responsibly.

18Z NAM shows a general 1/2" for most folks tonight.

EDIT: 0.04" QPF for CVG.

18Z RGEM gives folks N of the river an inch or so of snow tonight, with a 1/2" for folks south.

Update from the boys for tonight:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Winds continue to slowly decrease and thus the wind advisory was
cancelled early. A fast-moving cold front will cross the area
tonight. Snow showers will accompany this feature. While snow
may only last a few hours in any one place, it does look like
there could be accumulations of less than one inch. In the wake
of the front, winds will increase again, although not to the
magnitude that that had reached today. However, these winds
along with even colder air temperatures will result in very low
wind chills. So the wind chill advisory remains in effect for
all but the far southeast counties.

Radar continues to show a nice area of snow associated with the arctic front tracking thru ILL and MO. I am seeing a few localized heavier bands with 1/2 to 1 mile visibilities being reported within a general lighter area of snow. 28 as of 5pm at CVG but back across Central ILL where it is snowing, temps are much colder in the teens with single digits across extreme Western ILL behind the snow area.

0.1" so far at CVG today as of the 5pm climate report so that puts us exactly at 1" on the season. We will of course add a bit more to that tonight.

For next Thurs / Fri.... the 18Z GFS shows a long duration light snow event. It's a shame a lot of the energy doesn't make it out of the Rockies or you'd really have a nice snow storm if that were the case. Plenty of time to watch this one for sure. For now... the model gives CVG 0.20" of QPF from Thurs afternoon thru early Fri afternoon. Heaviest QPF still south of us of course.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:41 pm Unbelievable, the football game in buffalo got postponed. Sign of the times

Rescheduled for MLK Jr Day at 4:30 ET on CBS / Paramount+.

Currently 23 here in G'ville and a W wind of 18 mph gust to 29 mph.

Low on Sun morning of 2 above and then topping out around 11 degrees.

Rain totals for last event

Rather today was the last day above freezing before the Siberian Express as CVG reached 35, DAY 38 and CMH 46.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:22 pm Rather today was the last day above freezing before the Siberian Express as CVG reached 35, DAY 38 and CMH 46.

Those temps were at midnight. We've been below freezing since about 1am at CVG.

My son was talking about the help wanted ad by the Bills. Starting at like 7 tonight bring your snow shovel and shovel all night for $20 per hour to clear the stadium seats. They also are expecting 1 to 3 feet overnight. I suspect they decided there was no way to get the seating ready for the game.

For Thurs / Fri, the 18Z GEFS is showing some pretty amp'ed up members. 12Z EPS looked decent too esp for our SE counties. With the early week event, the Ensembles were never gung ho about it and the OP's eventually caved. With the Thurs / Fri system right now, the Ensembles are more amp'ed then the OP's. We'll see what happens in the coming days.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:48 pm My son was talking about the help wanted ad by the Bills. Starting at like 7 tonight bring your snow shovel and shovel all night for $20 per hour to clear the stadium seats. They also are expecting 1 to 3 feet overnight. I suspect they decided there was no way to get the seating ready for the game.

Watching a live stream from Buffalo Weather. Been lots of thundersnow and very strong winds!

Meanwhile, our biggest snowfall event of 2024 for the region is on the way.