November 2023 Weather Discussion

[Trevor]

Bgoney, what is wild and how quickly this can change. Down in Greenville,SC from June 2019-June 2023 and the average rainfall was at least 20 p/c above normal for the entire period. Since July you can see how quickly the drought set in. Seeing those fires in Tn heading back from HH was something I had never seen before. We are talking fires burning no more than 500 feet from a business. Again these were small fires on a hill but they were burning. We could see more intense smoke away from I-40 and my guess away from any towns.

Those fires have a distinct smell to them. I would describe it as a sweet, smoky smell. It’s from the duff burning and pines usually. Witnessed many fires in the Apps over the years on travels to and from relatives.

[tron777]

That is going to be some heavy rain! Model projection for 5am.

Wonderful. It'll be a lovely drive into the office.

[MVWxObserver]

Bgoney, what is wild and how quickly this can change. Down in Greenville,SC from June 2019-June 2023 and the average rainfall was at least 20 p/c above normal for the entire period. Since July you can see how quickly the drought set in. Seeing those fires in Tn heading back from HH was something I had never seen before. We are talking fires burning no more than 500 feet from a business. Again these were small fires on a hill but they were burning. We could see more intense smoke away from I-40 and my guess away from any towns.

Those fires have a distinct smell to them. I would describe it as a sweet, smoky smell. It’s from the duff burning and pines usually. Witnessed many fires in the Apps over the years on travels to and from relatives.

Like all of us, its fun and interesting to learn new vernacular, bro.

DUFF COMBUSTION Duff can burn via smoldering combustion, which is a slow, low- intensity, flameless combustion that occurs as oxygen reacts with. the surface of fuels. Smoldering fires can persist for long periods. of time and can be challenging to detect.

[Trevor]

12z models for the most part are good for 1”+ so the forecast looks good for the most part. I’m going to adjust my forecast a bit from 0.75”-1.00” to 0.75”-1.25” to account for locations exceeding an inch. I think 1” is a lock for most.

[Trevor]

A nice shower is moving into the tri-state right now.

[tron777]

Dry so far here in Mason. Glad that shower should pass before the drive home at 3.

[tpweather]

Yes got 0.02 out of the last shower but again just getting the atmosphere juiced up before the main show overnight and Tuesday

[tpweather]

Funny and we talk about the models all the time and sometimes the operational does not line up well with the ensembles. At the moment they are rather close for the next 10 days or so. This should help in making the forecast somewhat easier and like the upcoming system models in agreement for the most part and not many changes to the forecast. Later this week and next models are still rather close and sure we will have a few smaller systems in the flow that models or mets don't see but overall not bad and the CMC like you would expect is the coldest and the gfs in a surprise is the warmest.

[tpweather]

Can pick out the leading edge of the main rain event nearing Paducah at this moment. Should ride up the river overnight into early Tuesday. No changes in amounts and everyone should get a nice dose plus sort if windy on Tuesday though the leaves will be wet

[tpweather]

Some decent severe weather in the south today. So far this second severe season has been rather boring which is good but today we are seeing some strong to severe storms. Locally no problem though a clap of thunder Tuesday morning is possible and the most likely outcome is a few hours of heavy rain and some decent winds.

[tpweather]

Hopefully enough rain in the Appl mountains to end the fire season.

[Trevor]

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

It was a wet drive home.... man oh man, I forgot after 3 1/2 years of working from home how awful the drive home from Mason truly is. As early as I start working, the drive in will be fine, but even leaving at 3 it still took me every bit of an hour to get back home. I sure don't miss all the idiots!

Ok, back to the weather and the current batch of rain is just a primer to the main slug of rain due in later tonight into Tues morning. I think Tim and Trev have the forecast for the next several days well in hand. I am with Tim... the CMC is the coldest and has our best chance at some light snow over the next 10 days while the GFS is the warmest and the Euro is a good compromise between the two. I still see no big wintry events or big rain events either (after tomorrow) in our future. Everything looks weak thanks to the progressive flow.

[tron777]

5pm Totals:

CVG - 0.04"
Me - 0.05"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.06"

[tpweather]

5pm Totals:

CVG - 0.04"
Me - 0.05"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.06"

Les up to 0.05 here in Edgewood. A good primer today and again no changes needed to the forecast. Thoughts on the mjo and I will address that issue in the El Nino section.

[tron777]

Not sure if we have any posters near Mt. Olivet, KY in Robertson Co but if we do, you will find this information useful.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1134 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2023

...HIGH WATER RIVER FORECAST SERVICE TO BEGIN ON DECEMBER 14, 2023
FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE LICKING RIVER NEAR MOUNT OLIVET, KY...

In coordination with the Kentucky U.S. Geological Survey and the
Emergency Management of Robertson, Mason and Bracken Counties in
Kentucky, the National Weather Service will begin high water
forecasts for the U.S. Geological Survey river gauge along the
North Fork of the Licking River near Mt. Olivet, KY.

Critical flood category levels were determined based on past
impacts and crest history, along with a survey of the affected
areas and coordination with emergency officials.

The flood categories for this river gauge and forecast point Near
Mt. Olivet, on the border of Robertson and Bracken counties,
will be as follows:

Action Stage: 17 feet - forecasts will be issued for expected
river stages at/above this level.
Minor Flood Stage: 20 feet
Moderate Flood Stage: 26 feet
Major Flood Stage: 33 feet

These flood stages and forecast and warning services have been
coordinated with Emergency Management officials in Robertson,
Bracken and Mason counties.

Data and forecast services for this location can be found at:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... dro_type=2

The National Weather Service welcomes public feedback. If you
have any questions or comments on this change, please contact:

Julia Dian-Reed
Service Hydrologist
National Weather Service Forecast Office
1901 S. State Route 134
Wilmington, OH 45177
julia.dian-reed@noaa.gov

[tron777]

Rain is over spreading Western IN / KY at this time and will continue to push in our direction. After midnight thru about 6-7am in the morning looks to be when the heaviest rain falls. Lighter rain for a bit after that with cloudy skies tomorrow afternoon but mainly dry. Could be a tough AM commute, but the PM commute should be better from a weather perspective.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 49, CMH 52 and DAY 50 today.

[tron777]

50 IMBY today.

[tron777]

Goode morning all! As of 4am, we've reached around a half inch or so here, same at CVG. I am sure that has gone up though since then. The back edge of the more moderate rain is pushing into the Western side of the Metro now. Our next chance for rain will be Sunday afternoon and evening but this will be on the light side so not a big deal at this time. Still looks good for tomorrow's big travel day, Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

[Trevor]

I’m expecting the steadier rain to take a bit longer to move out as more develops in southern Kentucky and heads NNW into the tri-state. Should get us to inch plus.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice soaking overnight.The extended looks good and no changes as we wait for small pieces of energy heading across the country starting this weekend but at the moment nothing major. Once we get into early December we should start looking for a bigger system that brings in the change to milder air. Still no date on that but most times in the winter a pattern change does bring with it a bigger system

[Trevor]

Development continues to our SW. Movement is NE.

[Trentonwx06]

At 0645, 0.50 in rain gauge at house in Maineville.