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Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 7:25 am
by tron777
Today doesn't look very good for storm chances but tomorrow into tomorrow night will offer up a cold front. SPC has a slight risk for severe wx already out. Hopefully as Bgoney said, the timing will be better with this one. The timing has been killing us which is why the tracks have not been great for some areas.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 7:38 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 7:25 am
Today doesn't look very good for storm chances but tomorrow into tomorrow night will offer up a cold front. SPC has a slight risk for severe wx already out. Hopefully as Bgoney said, the timing will be better with this one. The timing has been killing us which is why the tracks have not been great for some areas.
Good Morning Les and no doubt its been hit and miss but the areas that get hit do well. Last night CVG got over an inch of rain and other areas got hit as well but then some folks got the old goose egg. Today looks like a little less coverage but there will be some isolated storms this afternoon. Little drizzle and fog this morning which also helps in keeping folks that got rain on Tuesday in the ground for a longer period. Thursday models are just trying to figure out the cold front and how quickly it is able to move and also any storms overnight and what that may do to the afternoon coverage. Usually cold fronts this time of year tend to move slow but this is a decent front so timing may be a little quicker.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 7:42 am
by tpweather
Bringing up a point the Bgoney brought up and that is the the mcs's this time of year has been much further south than normal and this has been the trend most of the spring and early summer where fronts have made it much further south than normal in the eastern 1/3 of the nation and that started in the spring with the southeast getting decent cold fronts into late spring and for us and the northeast nice fronts this summer. Looks like at the moment cutting my lawn every 5 days which is good because usually by this time of year its in the 7 or 8 day range.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:29 am
by tpweather
A brief shower this morning. Should not amount to more than 0.03 inches at best is my guess
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:59 am
by winterstormjoe
I just looked at the 06 GFS for later next week and it's showing the 594 ridge popping it's head in to the OH valley with some 90's and probably high dews, so it may be our warmest weather so far this summer for a few days before we go back to normal with wet weather? I've been watching the models for next weekend as we'll be camping in Brookville.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 9:03 am
by tpweather
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:59 am
I just looked at the 06 GFS for later next week and it's showing the 594 ridge popping it's head in to the OH valley with some 90's and probably high dews, so it may be our warmest weather so far this summer for a few days before we go back to normal with wet weather? I've been watching the models for next weekend as we'll be camping in Brookville.
Hey Joe, hope you enjoy the camping and lets hope you have a dry weekend. The hot is okay camping but the rain not so much. The models this summer have been showing the hotter air only to back down but this time its been several days so my guess we will get a warmer spell. I agree about the humidity and dew's should be high but this may help keep temps in check so maybe a 88-92 degree temps for a few days.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 9:57 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 7:38 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 7:25 am
Today doesn't look very good for storm chances but tomorrow into tomorrow night will offer up a cold front. SPC has a slight risk for severe wx already out. Hopefully as Bgoney said, the timing will be better with this one. The timing has been killing us which is why the tracks have not been great for some areas.
Good Morning Les and no doubt its been hit and miss but the areas that get hit do well. Last night CVG got over an inch of rain and other areas got hit as well but then some folks got the old goose egg. Today looks like a little less coverage but there will be some isolated storms this afternoon. Little drizzle and fog this morning which also helps in keeping folks that got rain on Tuesday in the ground for a longer period. Thursday models are just trying to figure out the cold front and how quickly it is able to move and also any storms overnight and what that may do to the afternoon coverage. Usually cold fronts this time of year tend to move slow but this is a decent front so timing may be a little quicker.
Myself and Boone Co mesonet site got shafted, just a few hundredths.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 9:59 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 9:03 am
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:59 am
I just looked at the 06 GFS for later next week and it's showing the 594 ridge popping it's head in to the OH valley with some 90's and probably high dews, so it may be our warmest weather so far this summer for a few days before we go back to normal with wet weather? I've been watching the models for next weekend as we'll be camping in Brookville.
Hey Joe, hope you enjoy the camping and lets hope you have a dry weekend. The hot is okay camping but the rain not so much. The models this summer have been showing the hotter air only to back down but this time its been several days so my guess we will get a warmer spell. I agree about the humidity and dew's should be high but this may help keep temps in check so maybe a 88-92 degree temps for a few days.
I've been seeing this on and off again as well. I wouldn't be surprised to get a couple of 89-92 degree days i there as Tim mentioned but I don't think it is going to be long lasting or sustainable thanks to El Nino. We should revert back to the current +PNA pattern in my opinion. Ensemble Guidance definitely is showing this.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:04 am
by tpweather
Serious flooding going on in the Paducah area. Already 3 inches before they got 2.32 in one hour so that total is well over 5 inches and still pouring.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:49 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:04 am
Serious flooding going on in the Paducah area. Already 3 inches before they got 2.32 in one hour so that total is well over 5 inches and still pouring.
6.28" officially as of 9am local time. I bet you can tack on another inch or close to it when the new hourly reading comes out. That boundary continues to train showers and t-storms over the same area from SE MO down into PAH and Western TN.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:53 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:49 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:04 am
Serious flooding going on in the Paducah area. Already 3 inches before they got 2.32 in one hour so that total is well over 5 inches and still pouring.
6.28" officially as of 9am local time. I bet you can tack on another inch or close to it when the new hourly reading comes out. That boundary continues to train showers and t-storms over the same area from SE MO down into PAH and Western TN.
I know some of the models earlier in the week had some really big totals just north of that area so they did well but the placement just a hair off but not bad from 3 days ago. Sometimes those big totals are more spreed out but sometimes one area like today gets hammered.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:29 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:53 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:49 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:04 am
Serious flooding going on in the Paducah area. Already 3 inches before they got 2.32 in one hour so that total is well over 5 inches and still pouring.
6.28" officially as of 9am local time. I bet you can tack on another inch or close to it when the new hourly reading comes out. That boundary continues to train showers and t-storms over the same area from SE MO down into PAH and Western TN.
I know some of the models earlier in the week had some really big totals just north of that area so they did well but the placement just a hair off but not bad from 3 days ago. Sometimes those big totals are more spreed out but sometimes one area like today gets hammered.
Agreed Tim... the models definitely showed the heaviest action to be to our SW, Overall the models have not been too awful. They usually don't get t-storm development correct 100% anyway but they had the overall set up and overall location almost perfect for this event. PAH is now at 6.73" as of 10am local time, 11am our time.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:38 am
by tron777
12Z NAM gives CVG 0.77" Thurs night with the cold front. Hope that translates to more then just CVG.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:43 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:38 am
12Z NAM gives CVG 0.77" Thurs night with the cold front. Hope that translates to more then just CVG.
Lol. Les hopefully with the front bearing down and if we don't get hit earlier in the day then lets hope for that .5-1.0 range for everyone. Probably will be a line of storms moving through but how fast is the question. Will probably start out with storms over central Indiana earlier in the day and those hopefully will jell into a solid line which would most likely produce some decent winds.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:46 am
by tron777
Hey Tim... There are 2 KY Mesonet sites in Western KY and look at this! The one in Ballard Co. is now up to 9.64" and Graves Co is now up to a whopping 10.83" of rain! WOW!
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:55 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:46 am
Hey Tim... There are 2 KY Mesonet sites in Western KY and look at this! The one in Ballard Co. is now up to 9.64" and Graves Co is now up to a whopping 10.83" of rain! WOW!
That is wild Les and I saw the storms just training over the same area for hours and hours.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:58 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:55 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:46 am
Hey Tim... There are 2 KY Mesonet sites in Western KY and look at this! The one in Ballard Co. is now up to 9.64" and Graves Co is now up to a whopping 10.83" of rain! WOW!
That is wild Les and I saw the storms just training over the same area for hours and hours.
Someone's getting over a foot of rain for sure out of this. Radar just isn't letting up in that narrow corridor.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 12:02 pm
by tpweather
Locally a slow rise in temps because of the clouds but over the past 20 minutes I could feel an increase in the humidity. Though clouds tend to hinder development of storms I still expect some isolated ones this afternoon and evening as we are still like a sponge and just need a little spark to set a few in motion.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 2:12 pm
by tron777
We're in the U70s now thanks to a touch of sun. Better CU field North of the river for isolated cells to pop per visible at this time.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 2:48 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 2:12 pm
We're in the U70s now thanks to a touch of sun. Better CU field North of the river for isolated cells to pop per visible at this time.
Pop up is a good call and of course much less coverage than the last two days. Still if you get under one that sits on top of you a quick 1/4 can fall in a short period of time. No golf game today so it will probably be dry as a bone lol.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 2:55 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 2:48 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 2:12 pm
We're in the U70s now thanks to a touch of sun. Better CU field North of the river for isolated cells to pop per visible at this time.
Pop up is a good call and of course much less coverage than the last two days. Still if you get under one that sits on top of you a quick 1/4 can fall in a short period of time. No golf game today so it will probably be dry as a bone lol.
Maybe I should wash my car?
Anyway... for tomorrow, the 12Z GFS gives CVG around 0.40" and the Euro not even a tenth of an inch!
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 3:11 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 2:55 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 2:48 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 2:12 pm
We're in the U70s now thanks to a touch of sun. Better CU field North of the river for isolated cells to pop per visible at this time.
Pop up is a good call and of course much less coverage than the last two days. Still if you get under one that sits on top of you a quick 1/4 can fall in a short period of time. No golf game today so it will probably be dry as a bone lol.
Maybe I should wash my car?
Anyway... for tomorrow, the 12Z GFS gives CVG around 0.40" and the Euro not even a tenth of an inch!
Les I wonder if the models are showing less because the trough is moving in a little slower on Thursday and maybe the heaviest rainfall occurs after midnight. Just a guess and not sure if they show more for Friday.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 3:26 pm
by tpweather
Not seeing much in the way of storms popping up so far. A few between Seymour and Bloomington Indiana. So far small cells and lets see if they get a tad bigger since a little more sunshine in that direction and maybe not as much of a cap.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 4:03 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 3:26 pm
Not seeing much in the way of storms popping up so far. A few between Seymour and Bloomington Indiana. So far small cells and lets see if they get a tad bigger since a little more sunshine in that direction and maybe not as much of a cap.
I don't think we'll see much today. In regards to your other post, I think it is timing issues on the models (they differ) as you mentioned.
Re: July 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 4:32 pm
by Bgoney