Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 8:43 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 7:59 am Good Morning and a nice hazy/smokey day in tap for us locally. Before I get into the forecast the media once again has no ideal what they are putting out there or just plain dumb. Yes we have seen many more days with smoke in the air this season because of the fires in Canada. They act like this is climate change but this happens every year so why so many more days with smoke in the air. Very simple wind direction in May and June this season has been out of the north/northwest a lot more often than usual and that is why more days with smoke. Matter of fact I was reading this has been a below normal season in Canada in terms of fires so if this is climate change then would this be for the good. Funny how climate change is always bad and never a good side to it which just makes it more of a scam. Will post my thoughts on the upcoming weather after this rant.

Lol, Tim, Tim ,Tim, didn’t you get the memo we’re supposed to pretend this has never happened in the history of earth until the life extending fossil fuels were created. Now that we have the smoke monster models , it’s misused by the MSM and others as another prop in the “climate is out to get you” Schtick.

Bgoney I did not receive that memo. Probably goes straight into my spam folder.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 8:46 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 8:43 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 7:59 am Good Morning and a nice hazy/smokey day in tap for us locally. Before I get into the forecast the media once again has no ideal what they are putting out there or just plain dumb. Yes we have seen many more days with smoke in the air this season because of the fires in Canada. They act like this is climate change but this happens every year so why so many more days with smoke in the air. Very simple wind direction in May and June this season has been out of the north/northwest a lot more often than usual and that is why more days with smoke. Matter of fact I was reading this has been a below normal season in Canada in terms of fires so if this is climate change then would this be for the good. Funny how climate change is always bad and never a good side to it which just makes it more of a scam. Will post my thoughts on the upcoming weather after this rant.

Lol, Tim, Tim ,Tim, didn’t you get the memo we’re supposed to pretend this has never happened in the history of earth until the life extending fossil fuels were created. Now that we have the smoke monster models , it’s misused by the MSM and others as another prop in the “climate is out to get you” Schtick.

Bgoney I did not receive that memo. Probably goes straight into my spam folder.

- Without a doubt. The woke get woker (if that is a word, probably not) and the rest of us continue to live our lives as we always have.

72 at this hour at CVG as the smoke and haze filled skies continue thanks to easterly flow bringing it in from Canada. It's as simple as that, folks. Until the flow changes or we get some rain to rinse the atmosphere off (if you will) whatcha see is whatcha get!

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 8:46 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 8:43 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 7:59 am Good Morning and a nice hazy/smokey day in tap for us locally. Before I get into the forecast the media once again has no ideal what they are putting out there or just plain dumb. Yes we have seen many more days with smoke in the air this season because of the fires in Canada. They act like this is climate change but this happens every year so why so many more days with smoke in the air. Very simple wind direction in May and June this season has been out of the north/northwest a lot more often than usual and that is why more days with smoke. Matter of fact I was reading this has been a below normal season in Canada in terms of fires so if this is climate change then would this be for the good. Funny how climate change is always bad and never a good side to it which just makes it more of a scam. Will post my thoughts on the upcoming weather after this rant.

Lol, Tim, Tim ,Tim, didn’t you get the memo we’re supposed to pretend this has never happened in the history of earth until the life extending fossil fuels were created. Now that we have the smoke monster models , it’s misused by the MSM and others as another prop in the “climate is out to get you” Schtick.

Bgoney I did not receive that memo. Probably goes straight into my spam folder.

Like creating temperature maps with an extreme red color when temperatures are in the 80's as if we are all going to roast with normal summertime temperatures.

No 12Z text data from the Euro so far on crapu-weatherpro.

Anyway, models struggle with these set up's so once the MCS forms, we'll be able to track the intensity, track, and timing for outdoor events / fireworks displays coming up.

Best chance currently for severe IMO is west of us tomorrow then we are fair game on Friday and probably Sat and Sun too.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 4:13 pm Best chance currently for severe IMO is west of us tomorrow then we are fair game on Friday and probably Sat and Sun too.

Some good agreement now from the short range models for tomorrow morning complex headed for Louisville/Paducah region

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 4:19 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 4:13 pm Best chance currently for severe IMO is west of us tomorrow then we are fair game on Friday and probably Sat and Sun too.

Some good agreement now from the short range models for tomorrow morning complex headed for Louisville/Paducah region

Right on! it'll look like it's coming right for us then it'll dive SE and miss us off to the west where the higher dews points should be concentrated.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2023 9:18 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2023 6:35 pm Today was just an ugly grey/haze/smoke kinda day. I will take the heat over this crap. Looks like it is going to pour rain any moment. But,nothing on radar.

Another day of the same pattern we’ve been in for 6 or 7 weeks. Thankfully that pattern is somewhat breaking down , although the missing player is still a SE ridge. Hopefully the Texas ridging placement can deliver some much needed relief in the moisture department for the eastern cornbelt

Today sure wasn't any better. Driving down the street you could see the smoke/haze ahead of you. Crazy that's for sure.

Yesterday a WHIO7 met Robert Gauthreaux III did his version of having drawn an outline of office bldgs for the Dayton skyline on that newsroom's weather window due to the smoke / haze and he kept that outline again for today.

Currently 79 here in G'ville.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY LESLIE!!

I hope that you're enjoying your special day, Wxbuddy!

A smokey / hazy 83 here today. Managed to get the lawn cut after work, driveway edged, bushes trimmed for the party on Saturday. Going to clean the house tomorrow then smoke the pork butt on Friday. Fireworks are about ready minus set up about 60-90 mins before launch time. Praying for a rain free show!!! Oh and I am off work until Monday. Should be slow then. Off for 7/4 then back to the real salt mines on Wed.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
505 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-300915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
505 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday
into Monday. Some of the storms will be capable of producing
damaging wind as well as locally heavy rainfall. Isolated large hail
could occur on Saturday as well.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through the period.

$$

Morning cluster varifying nicely to our SW. Once the timing got within 12-18 hrs of event , models did pretty well . About all you can ask of the models with these ridge riding clusters

This is what we talked about yesterday with these complexes riding the juicer Dew Point boundary.

It’s just good to see real changes in the pattern. These are the first ridge riders of the summer for these parts of the region. Hopefully it’s just the beginning of many and it progresses into our hoods over the coming days

The set up is interesting this morning. Storms are tracking along and just N of the warm front over ILL and IN then you have another cluster trying to drop south out of MI into IN. I don't know if these two areas will merge into one big MCS or not.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 8:52 am The set up is interesting this morning. Storms are tracking along and just N of the warm front over ILL and IN then you have another cluster trying to drop south out of MI into IN. I don't know if these two areas will merge into one big MCS or not.

Hey Les, my niece asked me how it's looking tomorrow night for Taylor Swift and I told her that it looks like the best shots of rain and storms will be tomorrow morning and Saturday morning from these MCS's based on the GFS with just a chance of rain tomorrow night. Am I correct in telling her that? I know these MCS's can have a mind of their own! Thanks

Hi Joe. From a data standpoint yes, but the forecast is evolving and ever changing. I would keep looking at the Hi-Res data (12Z NAM, HRRR, and RAP). Then 18Z this evening, etc. Like Bgoney mentioned 12 hours out give or take, hopefully, we see the guidance lock in on a track like what we saw for this morning's action keeping it well to our SW. My own personal thoughts would be to have a chance this evening and if that fails, then overnight or early Friday. Then we'll see if another complex gets going for Fri evening / overnight./ Same deal on Sat. You get a chance in the overnight and early morning hours., Heat up, then do it again in the late afternoon and evening. Again, the timing of these waves, cloud shields, and where they track will dictate what the next round does. Like a set of train tracks. Follow the instability and dew point gradient and that is where the storms will go.

New NAM and GFS certainly look interesting for us later this evening.....maybe SLGT risk will be expanded northeastward more into Ohio on the 1630z update?

If you want better rains , Need to get into that better shear , 35,40 knots at least for storms to thrive otherwise we get leftover lighter showers

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 11:55 am Need to get into that better shear , 35,40 knots at least for storms to thrive

Bingo. Shear levels look to remain in check so those storms will have issues maintaining intensity by the time they reach the tri-state.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 12:22 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 11:55 am Need to get into that better shear , 35,40 knots at least for storms to thrive

Bingo. Shear levels look to remain in check so those storms will have issues maintaining intensity by the time they reach the tri-state.

That goes for throughout the holiday weekend. If we don’t get to those numbers we probably don’t see what they had SW of Louisville with widespread regional rains. Isolated scattered storms would be the rule of don’t achieve this.

So I agree with your assessment on the shear, etc....my concern is that this complex is moving so fast (nearly 70 mph!!) that the models may be trying to shift this too far south too quickly. Right now it seems to be moving pretty much due east. I know this will turn to the southeast in time but will this turn be delayed enough for us to get at least some severe potential? I may be wrong but keeping an eye on it.