Absolute Vorticity

With all the clouds and rainfall many of these are radar indicated. Still raining and pressure down to 20.10.

MD Issued for us:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0248.html

DISCUSSION...A small arcing line of storms persists ahead of the
surface low, extending from southern Indiana toward the Louisville
KY area. This activity will continue to pose a damaging wind threat,
and a brief tornado remains possible as well as the line intersects
the warm front with enhanced shear and lift.

A leading area of rain and thunderstorms has limited destabilization
ahead of the cold pocket aloft, and a dry slot is further eroding
the moist layer from the southwest. As such, the area of severe
potential appears to be dwindling over time.

However, the low remains very strong, and cooling aloft will still
overspread the warm front as it lifts across northern Kentucky and
perhaps into far southwest Ohio after 21Z. As such, a new watch will
need to be considered just north of the existing watch.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 2:46 pm MD Issued for us:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0248.html

Looks like they noted the lack of a break as well like I just mentioned. May help us out a bit!

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 2:47 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 2:46 pm MD Issued for us:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0248.html

Looks like they noted the lack of a break as well like I just mentioned. May help us out a bit!

It's going to help no doubt. I'm actually glad to be honest. We're not out of the woods but the lack of CAPE will definitely keep a lid on how nasty things could have been. The dynamics alone argue for strong winds and we're going to see 50-60 mph gusts after that line passes because of the low being so strong.

Finally a nice round of thunder

1.87" now at CVG for rainfall.

Up to 1.30 inches here. At least this will settle any dust that was out there.

Winds are moving quickly from the southeast to northwest. Finally getting something besides rainfall and even the top of the trees a little bit of wind. Rain has slacked off and even the sky is a little brighter. Pressure down to 29.07 and trying to get below the 29.00. Make that 29.06

Temp 43
Rainfall 2.80" counting
Barometer 29.06" falling rapidly

Latest outlook reflects some of the issues we are having. Like Les said, by no means out of the woods. But the threat level is def not as high as it once was.

My pressure is at 28.92... Holt smokes!!!

FLOOD WARNING issued for most of the Metro until 7pm EST.

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and Ohio,
including the following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Franklin
IN, Ohio, Ripley and Switzerland. In Northern Kentucky, Boone,
Campbell and Kenton. In Ohio, Butler, Clark, Clermont, Clinton,
Greene, Hamilton, Montgomery and Warren.

* WHEN...Until 700 PM EST.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 305 PM EST, radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly
in the warned area. Between 2 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are
possible.
- Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Cincinnati, Dayton, Hamilton, Springfield, Kettering,
Middletown, Beavercreek, Fairfield, Covington, Huber Heights,
Fairborn, Mason, Florence, Xenia, Independence, Trotwood,
Oxford, Miamisburg, Lebanon and Norwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Pressure down to 28.98" at CVG or 981 MB.

Low pressure I can find with the SLP is 977 MB over SW Indiana.

It looks like the good CAPE of 500 J/kg is staying along and S of I-64 in KY. Thank goodness! That is going to help save us from things really getting out of hand.

Had a little bit of sun and guess what a nice heavy shower with some decent wind. Temp up to 52 and pressure 29.02

TOR Watch issued until 7pm for SE IN, NKY, and SW OH.

Over the last couple of scans this portion of the line has started to increase in strength.

Tornado watch issued for 275 on east and south.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 3:23 pmsat.PNG

What a powerhouse of a storm! Wicked.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 64
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Extreme southeast Indiana
Eastern Kentucky
Southern Ohio
Far southwest Virginia
Southwest West Virginia

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
700 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Conditional tornado and damaging wind potential will exist
for a few more hours with low-topped convection spreading east
across the Ohio Valley and Cumberland Plateau.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Cincinnati
OH to 55 miles southeast of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

100+ shear , anything can happen

Skies are a little brighter here and I can see the clouds racing from the SE to the NW. An odd direction for sure, but that tells me winds are starting to back as the warm front approaches.

110 knot bulk shear and 900 for helicity over my hood.... sheesh!