January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z EPS Mean has the low track from Paducah to Lexington to WV and into PA.

[tron777]

18Z GFS is mainly rain with a couple of flakes at the end. Low tracks NW of us which is never good for snow lovers as you guys well know.

[tpweather]

The good thing is the NWS in Indy still has hope for an impactful weather event later Thursday and Friday. So they have not given up yet and again the models today imo helped somewhat as a further south movement of the low pressure should help colder air dive in here a little quicker and if we get the low to strengthen at the correct time you could see a few inches. No doubt changes are still going on with this system and hopefully by Tuesday a much better ideal as the system seems to be moving in a tad faster.

[airwolf76]

really don't see any change the next 10 days. keep kicking the can further down the road. looks like last 2 weeks of the month for possible colder air and or snow chances

[Bgoney]

Overnight runs pretty much the same for next system . Rain to snow showers, with the more significant accumulations in the higher elevations and near the lakes. Coolish this weekend before we warm next week.

[tpweather]

Overnight runs pretty much the same for next system . Rain to snow showers, with the more significant accumulations in the higher elevations and near the lakes. Coolish this weekend before we warm next week.

Great Post as its short and to the point. The NAO continues to be very positive and until we get that in the neutral or negative range the same old song and dance continues. Mjo in the COD and going to take time to get this in better phases for winter weather. With the system later this week we do have some decent cold air coming in behind the front but timing for us locally will probably just mean a period of light snow and then a few snow showers. This pattern coming up this week looks to continue until for another 10 days at least so we are talking about around the 20th. Coldest air remains on the other side of the planet but no doubt signs of this heading to western and central Canada and Alaska later this week but still days or weeks until we see the colder air.

[Bgoney]

A small change in the right direction? First single digit SOI reading in quite sometime. Need to see single digits or lower for another 5-7 days + for major Atmospheric changes.

Screenshot_20230109-073823_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

Good morning everyone! My thoughts for the next system are to see scattered showers Wed afternoon and night with the warm front. The main rains come on Thurs with up to an inch very possible. Then on the backside, depending on how that works out, we change to snow later Thurs night into Friday. Accumulations for us maybe tough with this one as you guys have said with the Lake Belts and Apps having the best chances to break out the shovels. Then we quickly warm back up with more 50s for MLK Day and next week.

I have no changes to my views of the longer term. Sometime after the 20th things should be looking better and I like February too just like the last few winters. Thanks Bgoney for the SOI update too. Hope that will become a trend as you said.

[tron777]

GEFS / EPS both continue to show a more favorable pattern for later in January after the 20th. I'm thinking that the model can kicking is done. My earlier call of mid January was just a week too soon and I have no issues with that. Per the Aussies, as of 1/7, the MJO is in the neutral circle (exited from a weak phase 7). Most of the MJO modeling still has it trying to come out and go thru a tour of the colder phases 8,1, 2 but at a weak amplitude. Teleconnection forecasts are calling for the PNA to go negative over the next 7-10 days then rising towards perhaps, weakly positive by the 20th or so. AO stays weakly negative throughout with the NAO very positive dropping towards neutral by the 20th. I think we're all on the same page here on our forum for the most part at this point.

[Bgoney]

GEFS / EPS both continue to show a more favorable pattern for later in January after the 20th. I'm thinking that the model can kicking is done. My earlier call of mid January was just a week too soon and I have no issues with that. Per the Aussies, as of 1/7, the MJO is in the neutral circle (exited from a weak phase 7). Most of the MJO modeling still has it trying to come out and go thru a tour of the colder phases 8,1, 2 but at a weak amplitude. Teleconnection forecasts are calling for the PNA to go negative over the next 7-10 days then rising towards perhaps, weakly positive by the 20th or so. AO stays weakly negative throughout with the NAO very positive dropping towards neutral by the 20th. I think we're all on the same page here on our forum for the most part at this point.

Agree the Arctic stays closed at least until the beginning of week 4(21st). Not Ready to say just yet what week 4(22--28) has in store airmass-wise. The tellies start to turn for sure but it may take longer still for our cold air source in west Canada to be replaced and filled with arctic air and push south into our region

[tron777]

GEFS / EPS both continue to show a more favorable pattern for later in January after the 20th. I'm thinking that the model can kicking is done. My earlier call of mid January was just a week too soon and I have no issues with that. Per the Aussies, as of 1/7, the MJO is in the neutral circle (exited from a weak phase 7). Most of the MJO modeling still has it trying to come out and go thru a tour of the colder phases 8,1, 2 but at a weak amplitude. Teleconnection forecasts are calling for the PNA to go negative over the next 7-10 days then rising towards perhaps, weakly positive by the 20th or so. AO stays weakly negative throughout with the NAO very positive dropping towards neutral by the 20th. I think we're all on the same page here on our forum for the most part at this point.

Agree the Arctic stays closed at least until the beginning of week 4(21st). Not Ready to say just yet what week 4(22--28) has in store airmass-wise. The tellies start to turn for sure but it may take longer still for our cold air source in west Canada to be replaced and filled with arctic air and push south into our region

The most likely scenario based on trends with this Triple Dip La Nina is for the cold (once it comes) to dump into the Rockies and bleed eastward. Hopefully we can catch a well timed shortwave as the cold bleeds east with time.

[tron777]

[tron777]

12Z GFS has rain and the low tracking right over us then towards Detroit and into S Ontario. That means we get the dry slot and maybe a few lingering flurries at best.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and nothing changed much on the gfs for the late week system. So far the CMC and the Euro has been a little more bullish on snow as it seems to be a little slower in moving the system through. Will talk more about this system later but did you see the gfs for next week. This came out of nowhere or if was on the models before and I missed it completely. Looks almost like a tropical system in the Atlantic heading towards the Carolina's . Tell you the truth really not sure what to think about that system and the gfs has a strong system. Is this a blip in the model runs or really a storm heading east to west like you see many tropical storms.

[airwolf76]

another thing I was looking at was the stratosphere . future model runs were showing it eventually stretching down over the eastern US almost splitting. so it is expected to weaken and drag more arctic air south which would occur later this month.

[tron777]

Good Morning and nothing changed much on the gfs for the late week system. So far the CMC and the Euro has been a little more bullish on snow as it seems to be a little slower in moving the system through. Will talk more about this system later but did you see the gfs for next week. This came out of nowhere or if was on the models before and I missed it completely. Looks almost like a tropical system in the Atlantic heading towards the Carolina's . Tell you the truth really not sure what to think about that system and the gfs has a strong system. Is this a blip in the model runs or really a storm heading east to west like you see many tropical storms.

Yeah that GFS run was pretty wonky. An easy toss in the trash can IMO.

[tron777]

another thing I was looking at was the stratosphere . future model runs were showing it eventually stretching down over the eastern US almost splitting. so it is expected to weaken and drag more arctic air south which would occur later this month.

I've been watching that also Charles. I'm hoping it has an impact for February. I don't think it'll impact January much due to atmospheric lag effects. I would love to be wrong about that though.

[tron777]

I looked at the individual GEFS members and only 3 out of 20 show accumulating snow for this next system. Not very good odds attm.

[tron777]

12Z Euro coming in with a little more then a 1/2" of rain, then we get the dry slot. Low gets cranked up near the IN / OH / MI border. Then it moves NE thru Lake Erie with the upper low just to its west. Western and Central Lower Mich do good with backside snows as well as Northern IN to maybe Toledo at most in NW Ohio. The model does give us a period of light snow late Thurs night into the day on Fri though so we'll have to watch that to see if it works out or not. What the Euro does is that it drops in a second closed low or upper low right on top of us to give us an enhanced period of snow on Fri. No idea if this is real or model BS. That's about all we have going for us snow lovers with this one. Low odds but not zero.

[tron777]

Here is the Euro model text data for CVG on Friday... not bad if this secondary piece of energy dropping in is real of course.

Code: Select all

CVG

FRI 12Z 13-JAN   1.0    -7.5    1013      84     100    0.06     540     530    
FRI 18Z 13-JAN   0.8    -8.7    1014      79     100    0.17     541     529    
SAT 00Z 14-JAN   0.2    -7.8    1017      79      43    0.06     543     529    
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -1.7    -6.3    1018      76      14    0.01     543     529  

[tpweather]

Here is the Euro model text data for CVG on Friday... not bad if this secondary piece of energy dropping in is real of course.

Code: Select all

CVG

FRI 12Z 13-JAN   1.0    -7.5    1013      84     100    0.06     540     530    
FRI 18Z 13-JAN   0.8    -8.7    1014      79     100    0.17     541     529    
SAT 00Z 14-JAN   0.2    -7.8    1017      79      43    0.06     543     529    
SAT 06Z 14-JAN  -1.7    -6.3    1018      76      14    0.01     543     529  

Les the Euro and some extent the CMC has been more bullish on snow and I just believe the Euro is slower with the system and closer to us with that second piece of energy. Just a few days ago the gfs was the slowest model showing this system which does not happen often but the gfs has gone back to its normal self and moving energy quickly out of here. How quickly does the ridging come back from the central plains as well and that also has to do with another piece of energy coming into the west coast. All this goes hand and hand but trying to get the timing down makes a difference. The upper system is strong imo and should be able to produce enough cold air on its own to support snow but you need to be in the correct location and even behind the front there is some cold air but usually this air is drier so always a crap shoot of how much moisture is still around.

[tron777]

Nice post Tim! The Canadian virtually does the same thing just further east with that closed low so we don't get the benefit of that nice burst of snow on Friday that the Euro has since the closed low is right on top of us. The UKMET is a blend of the CMC and Euro basically. The GFS is so progressive, as you mentioned, that none of this happens at all.

[tron777]

I'd like to see if the EPS supports this idea or not later today. Also, we need to see more trending in this direction too for snow lovers in the next couple of days. So just to kind of re-hash out my thoughts... scattered showers Wed afternoon and night. The core of the rain comes on Thurs. In my morning post, I mentioned up to 1" being likely but I could be a little high on that. A half inch or so really maybe the reality of it. Still a good drink of water anyway. Then, we'll just have to wait and see what happens with the upper low on Friday to see if it's dry slot and done. Dry slot and maybe some flurries, or dry slot and perhaps an inch or so of slushy snow on grass, car tops etc. That's about it in a nut shell.

[tron777]

Euro looking very wet Tues - Thurs of next week. Any drought concerns across the area should really no longer be of concern with this mild and wet pattern we're basically in for a while longer.

[tpweather]

Euro looking very wet Tues - Thurs of next week. Any drought concerns across the area should really no longer be of concern with this mild and wet pattern we're basically in for a while longer.

Exactly Les and not only wet but you are also starting to see the pattern change show up in the models. Colder and colder in western Canada will continue to show up and storminess to hopefully put more snow down to the north and west of us. I know Brian this morning was talking about early February but I believe we will already be in the pattern change by then. Anytime after the 20th I believe the change is starting to make inroads. Funny and we both were too fast with the pattern change and probably by a week or so but then we need to be careful because the things we saw that would make the pattern change has not shown up much in the past 3-5 days but I believe the latest Euro for sure is showing that and believe the other models will follow that in the next few days. Interested in the mjo the next few days and yes went from phase 7 to the cod but I don't believe its heading for the warmer phases this time and will end up heading back to phase 7-2 over the next several weeks. I know Brian talked about how we may have a similar situation like we saw in December with a very cold shot but brief in nature and he talked about how that may happen again. I know always follow the trends but that was such a wild swing that I don't believe we will see that again this winter.The Polar Vortex was stretched out last time and we were in a good place for several days. I believe this time more of a pure split will happen and then where does that piece of the Polar Vortex head towards. So wherever it decides to take up shop expect several weeks of more winter like weather. Not sure if that takes place here,Europe,Asia or western USA but we just need a little luck on our side