Absolute Vorticity

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:23 pm YIKES @ these wind gusts from the 12z Euro. All I want for Christmas is my power to stay on.


EuroWindy.gif

I hope that is wrong, Would be the worst time to lose power

I don't think it's wrong. 40 to 50 mph + gusts I think are likely no matter which model is correct on the snow side of things.

No clue if this means anything or not... but I saw a forecast for Vancouver in BC Canada for like 6-8" of snow and the area ended up getting 8-10" when the energy came ashore.

Checking SPC mesopage here and it looks like we've got a 1018 MB surface low near Seattle. Let's see which model has the low's position and strength the closest?

12Z Euro - Has a 1015 MB low near Seattle
12Z GFS - Has a 1015 MB low near Seattle
12Z CMC - Has a 1016 MB low East of Seattle
12Z NAM - Has a 1014 MB low East of Seattle

You make the call for yourself.

After catching up on comments and looking at the models. It's looks like not much change as far as snow fall totals? I got a nephew in Joliet Illinois for work and told him to leave as soon as he can. He said where he is working walmart distribution cent they are considering shut it down.

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:56 pm After catching up on comments and looking at the models. It's looks like not much change as far as snow fall totals? I got a nephew in Joliet Illinois for work and told him to leave as soon as he can. He said where he is working walmart distribution cent they are considering shut it down.

I'm concerned for parts of WI, ILL, and especially for IN, and Michigan. These areas are probably going to see the worst of the snow per today's data. The same issues we've talked about for our forum area still applies. No changes in our thinking on AV.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:59 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:56 pm After catching up on comments and looking at the models. It's looks like not much change as far as snow fall totals? I got a nephew in Joliet Illinois for work and told him to leave as soon as he can. He said where he is working walmart distribution cent they are considering shut it down.

I'm concerned for parts of WI, ILL, and especially for IN, and Michigan. These areas are probably going to see the worst of the snow per today's data. The same issues we've talked about for our forum area still applies. No changes in our thinking on AV.

Yes that is why I told him to get home as soon as he can. He was talking about leaving Thursday at 6pm and I told him he might be screwed by then.

IND has a winter storm watch out now for their entire CWA in effect from Thurs afternoon thru Sat morning. 3-6" for the northern half and 2-4" for the southern half. Wind gusts to 50 mph wind chills in excess of -25, blowing snow, drifting snow, etc etc. are all listed in the watch text.

Do things change for my area being NW and 20 minutes from I 70?

cincy bud wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 2:15 pm Do things change for my area being NW and 20 minutes from I 70?

Not really other then the drifting and blowing of snow will be worse for you since you are in a more rural area versus being in the city.

Mini Snowtalk! from BG:

Map From the boys and girls at KIND. I dont think its anything unexpected

Not at all... that map looks very good and the counties that boarder our CWA are in that 1-3" range which is pretty much what we are expecting here.

15Z SREF is in and 2-3" is the mean for most locations. A little lower for CMH which makes sense due to the low track. There is still a big range in members and the only reason the avg ticked up on this run was because of a few more weenier members being added which skews the avg.

18Z NAM is already slower with the energy coming out of the N Rockies. At Hour 15, the low is over Western MT. We'll call it the Bitterroot mountains. 12Z run at that same time had the low already on the MT / WY border.

Out to hour 30 and a tad more of a dig with the low, which is good as compared to 12Z. A few little subtle changes with this run, nothing too drastic. We'll see what the end results are shortly.

For our northern tier of counties including Eric's hood - the boys have pulled the trigger there.

Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Miami-Champaign-
Including the cities of Richmond, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Troy,
Piqua, Tipp City, and Urbana
311 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Combination of snow, wind, blowing snow, and very low
wind chill possible. Total snow accumulations of up to two
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Wind chill
could be as low as 30 below.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central Indiana and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday afternoon.

The rest of us, are still covered under the HWO:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The combination of very cold temperatures and wind will produce
dangerously cold wind chills Friday through Sunday. Wind chills from
10 below to 25 below are expected.

Strong winds are likely Friday into Saturday. Gusts of 40 to 50+ MPH
will be possible.

There is a chance for accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday.
Even minor amounts of snow, combined with the gusty winds, may lead
to blowing snow and reduced visibility, causing impacts to holiday
travel.

So far IMO the trends for today have been a further eastward (a touch SE too) track of the low as well as a faster arrival of the arctic front.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:31 pm So far IMO the trends for today have been a further eastward (a touch SE too) track of the low as well as a faster arrival of the arctic front.

It wouldn't be the OV without a nail biter. lol

Pretty much the same end result. CVG gets about 0.20" of cold sector precip to work with on the 18Z NAM.

sbpstudios wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:35 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:31 pm So far IMO the trends for today have been a further eastward (a touch SE too) track of the low as well as a faster arrival of the arctic front.

It wouldn't be the OV without a nail biter. lol

We never do snow events easy!

LOU has a watch out for their IN counties for 2-4" Paducah also has a watch out and a wind chill watch too. Can't blame them for that!

Anyone pulling for the ICON or German model? It's the only model that passes the low thru Central KY and just a bit SE of CVG. 12Z run and the 18Z run are doing that. No other model is unfortunately.

We definitely seem to be averaging out with 2-3" across the area. Now, how many models can pop the secondary low over the Carolinas between now and the start on Thursday night?

18Z RGEM isn't too shabby either showing a general 2-4" from West to East across the area.