Absolute Vorticity

dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:46 pm The Aussies say we are in phase 4.

snowbo wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:48 pm Question: We go up to Michigan every February to snowshoe. Is the upcoming pattern going to benefit the lake effect areas in northwest Michigan?

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:22 pm The CPC had a wonderful write up this afternoon discussing their thinking on the pattern for Weeks 3 and 4 (12/14 thru 1/6/23) This is a great read and they talk about many of the things we've been tracking on our forum too over the last few weeks. They discuss the teleconnections and the MJO (just like we do) Hopefully everyone who reads this post clicks on the link below and takes the time to read this and digest it. It's a really nice write up!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ions/WK34/

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:57 pm

dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:46 pm The Aussies say we are in phase 4.

Thank you Doug for posting this. I have not checked it in a couple of days. No model that I have seen (just checked) has the MJO doing this. All models either keep it in the neutral circle or later on maybe a quick trip in Phase 1 or 2. The thing is... will the MJO have any influence on the pattern at all since the blocking is so intense on top? The blocking "should" override that one would think?

dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:46 pm The Aussies say we are in phase 4.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:08 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:22 pm The CPC had a wonderful write up this afternoon discussing their thinking on the pattern for Weeks 3 and 4 (12/14 thru 1/6/23) This is a great read and they talk about many of the things we've been tracking on our forum too over the last few weeks. They discuss the teleconnections and the MJO (just like we do) Hopefully everyone who reads this post clicks on the link below and takes the time to read this and digest it. It's a really nice write up!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ions/WK34/

Dang that was impressive , I like that guy's style . Usually the CPC hates to go on and on about anything cold, but this guy wasn't having any of that, kudos to him

dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:53 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:57 pm

dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:46 pm The Aussies say we are in phase 4.

Thank you Doug for posting this. I have not checked it in a couple of days. No model that I have seen (just checked) has the MJO doing this. All models either keep it in the neutral circle or later on maybe a quick trip in Phase 1 or 2. The thing is... will the MJO have any influence on the pattern at all since the blocking is so intense on top? The blocking "should" override that one would think?

Every other model has it in the circle of death. I'm beginning to think the Australian model is always off. If they are correct then every other model is always off. I tend to lean toward the Aussies are off in their plotting, but I really don't know.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 6:17 am

dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:46 pm The Aussies say we are in phase 4.

I have been watching this since the start of November and glad somebody brought this up. It seems to me that the weather and this tool we use is not matching up this season. I understand there is always a time lag and again this is only a tool not what is happening. Over the years the Aussie mjo has been decent and though not perfect it has come in handy sometimes especially longer term. This season and I am talking since the start of November it seems to be about 5-7 days behind of what is going on with the weather. Usually that has been more like 1-3 days. Though not discounting this I have put little weight into my forecasts until I feel comfortable that the model is correct. Maybe like Les mentioned this is not controlling the weather and since we are seeing some serious blocking to the north does this overtake the mjo to where the mjo has little to no influence at all with the weather in the USA. Not sure but just a few thoughts on what may or may not be happening.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 7:48 am Good Morning and really nothing changed on the overnight models. Still everything seems onboard for the pattern change. A couple of things to discuss and the first is how much rain do we get later Tuesday into Wednesday. I have been going with the lighter end around .5-1. I can see though if the front stalls out where that total could go higher but going to give it a few days before moving my totals up. Then the colder air works in Thursday through the weekend. Should see temps in the mid-upper 30's during the day and probably mid-upper 20's at night as I expect clouds around with some snow showers and flurries at times. After that I expect a much stronger push of cold air in here starting around the 19th. Will this be brought by another storm or just the cold moving further south as it takes hold. I still believe another system will form somewhere over New Mexico or Colorado and head east. Will this stay to the south or do we see a more northeast movement of this system. I know hard to tell since the models probably don't have it figured in yet but by the middle of next week and you get within the 5 day period I expect this to show up and then we can figure out if this will give us some snow.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 8:06 am Good Morning Les and I agree 100p/c as we know this is a big blocking pattern setting up and models were trying to rush this in but I would not give up on the 16th or so for us to really start getting into the that pattern locally. 3-4 weeks in the mid-Dec - early and middle Jan is all we can ask for and if we get unlucky with snow then it was not meant to be this season. Personally I believe during this 3-4 week period we have several systems move in here and hopefully we get lucky. We have seen years where Lexington gets twice as much snow as Indy and that happens depending on how the storm path finally takes shape. With this pattern I expect an overall snowy pattern for the Ohio Valley and East Coast. Predicting snow totals is one of the hardest areas to predict and the bust potential is always there but since I enjoy throwing myself out there I believe between Dec 16th and Jan 15th that 20 inches will hit CVG. Could be several 1-3 inch snow falls in that time period and hopefully 1 bigger storm to boost the totals. Getting that layer of snow on the ground and having that a couple hundred miles south of here would really help that prediction lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 8:49 am Les we talked about how the cold was on this side of the earth and over the past 6 weeks that has been true except for the last week eastern Siberia has been getting colder which you would expect this time of year. Normally that would put up a red flag that the cold may be switching to the other side of the earth but this season not so much. The PV is there as always but not nearly as strong for this time of year and getting disruptions is so much easier. Also with the blocking that is predicted getting a cross-polar flow is higher than normal. When you get a strong PV and it gets disrupted you better be in the correct place for a few weeks of really cold air. Sure sooner or later we will need the cold air to build up once again but having this push in mid-Dec gives us the best chance of it lasting several weeks. We saw that first hint of blocking in the middle 10 days of November and that was nice but it was not going to last that time of year. Same is true once you get into later February and March as you can get a nice shot of cold air but only for a brief period.

One last thing this morning and we talk about overriding precip with a pattern like this and does this mean we are talking about ice. If the pattern sets up the way I expect the answer is not really as we would be deep enough in the cold air that snow is more likely. This could be a bigger problem though in the Tn Valley and upper gulf states.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:08 am Gfs is catching on finally. Late to the party but still made it before things get interesting.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:42 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:08 am Gfs is catching on finally. Late to the party but still made it before things get interesting.

No doubt Tim! I was going to post the same thing. It's finally coming around to the Nor 'Easter solution that really was an easy call since that outcome totally fits the pattern. 1.21" of rain for Wed and Thurs per this run of the GFS.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:46 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:42 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:08 am Gfs is catching on finally. Late to the party but still made it before things get interesting.

No doubt Tim! I was going to post the same thing. It's finally coming around to the Nor 'Easter solution that really was an easy call since that outcome totally fits the pattern. 1.21" of rain for Wed and Thurs per this run of the GFS.

Les you can see the STJ after we get that first push of cold still alive and well. I will start watching for another system to develop in the New Mexico area next weekend and see how it tracks. Again we will look at each system when it develops but I believe we got the pattern down.