Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:31 am
You guys pretty much summed it up for the rest of Nov. With the MJO headed to 5-6 a shake up in the 500mb is inevitable. During the last week of the month we will probably see the trough back on the west coast and some ridging in the east, duration ? Unknown. Not only how far the MJO travels eastward into the Pac, bit how quickly. We know the models like to propagate it more quickly than it actually does. There is still that brick wall of cooler water temps and above normal easterlies it will contend with in the Pac. Tim , I like your term of "snapshot" for Dec. Take this month for example, record warm first 11 days and substantial cold for 2 weeks , so the monthly forecast can be at first glance , be misleading
I'm wondering if December will go similarly? Warm first week then cold for middle Dec and into Christmas? Most folks would be good with that, myself included. I haven't gone warm or cold yet personally, just kind of waiting to see what happens with the MJO. Seeing more models getting it back into 7 before dying off again.
nina_7_dic_ok.png
The above image shows the 500 MB pattern for Phase 7 in December during a La Nina. We've seen the pattern before with blocking over AK and the SE ridge centered near the Coast, maybe just offshore. Upper low over SE Canada keeps us in NW flow pattern so maybe some clipper action should the trough dig far enough to the south. It'll be fighting the SE Ridge so we would have to see where the trough sets up shop and how far south can it dig. Not as good as Phase 8 but it's not a warm pattern either like 5 or 6. It's a transition pattern I guess is a good word for it.
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Les that would not surprise me at all. I know my winter forecast was to see more clippers this season but less in the way of bigger storms. When the pattern changes is when you get those big storms usually and hopefully we can cash in on those when they occur. Next week pattern change but we look to get some decent rainfall imo. La Nina still going on but when and how quickly do we get rid of this. Again the last two years the prediction of the La Nina dying has not worked out and Bgoney has been all over this and he never bit into those models that showed this. Third year and not sure we have ever had 4 years of a La Nina since records have been kept so more than likely it will disappear this winter.
Great info Les. You can see phase 5 which is the most likely one we go into next. You can see the positive AO clearly and from what I can tell this should be the most likely outcome in the next week or two.
dce wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:47 am
Interesting enough, here is phase 6 for a negative enso in December. Not what you would expect.
Def a workable pattern there Doug!
Definitely not like the last several Novembers and Decembers is it? Finally we have something to talk about before January for a change!
No doubt about it! We may actually see some snow in December for a change. Long range ensemble guidance continues to look great like Dec 2010 did by Week 2. Of course, we shall see... we can't go that weenie yet.
Concerning snow showers Wednesday and Thursday. Two things here and the first is snow showers you normally get off the lakes. That looks to happen but the winds are really not that great for those snow showers to make it this far south. The wind direction is must better for northern Ohio and western PA. Saying that the models are showing a few small disturbances in the upper mid-west that looks to rotate towards the Ohio Valley. That is the most likely chance we have for a few heavier snow showers. Again exactly how that pivots this way will determine if we get a few periods of snow showers. If we get those snow showers say after 3p and through the nighttime hours the roads should be cold enough that you could see some slick spots. Really a now cast on how those minor disturbances rotates. Personally I believe one of those it should make it far enough south and west that we see a few periods of snow showers but the shorter term models are trending on keeping it further north and I can see that happening just because of the wind fields I mentioned before. Again even if we get in on the snow showers you are looking at those quick 1/4 inch to 1/2 inch totals.
Good post Tim! I have always believed in the activity being scattered anyway so some folks will see nothing and others will get that light accum. Today was actually our best chance for snow as sad as it was.
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:31 am
Good post Tim! I have always believed in the activity being scattered anyway so some folks will see nothing and others will get that light accum. Today was actually our best chance for snow as sad as it was.
I agree Les and thought we get a tenth or two this morning but that is gone by the wayside. Trying to reach that 2 inch mark for the month so I need the snow shower to go directly over CVG for about 30 minutes lol.
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:31 am
Good post Tim! I have always believed in the activity being scattered anyway so some folks will see nothing and others will get that light accum. Today was actually our best chance for snow as sad as it was.
I agree Les and thought we get a tenth or two this morning but that is gone by the wayside. Trying to reach that 2 inch mark for the month so I need the snow shower to go directly over CVG for about 30 minutes lol.
young pup wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:41 am
That 71 split is working out pretty good so far. Had a few flakes of snow so far. Taking a quick warm up break in the truck.
CMH is kind of in no man's land right now for snow but another band is approaching Dayton so maybe it'll head your way later? Def a weakening trend to the radar echoes as we expected.
young pup wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:41 am
That 71 split is working out pretty good so far. Had a few flakes of snow so far. Taking a quick warm up break in the truck.
CMH is kind of in no man's land right now for snow but another band is approaching Dayton so maybe it'll head your way later? Def a weakening trend to the radar echoes as we expected.
This system had two problems and one is the split of energy with one to our northwest and another along the gom. The second is the system was heading towards the drier air mass compared to this past weekend. The good thing is we never really expected much but I thought we may see a little more light rain then we have seen.
young pup wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:41 am
That 71 split is working out pretty good so far. Had a few flakes of snow so far. Taking a quick warm up break in the truck.
CMH is kind of in no man's land right now for snow but another band is approaching Dayton so maybe it'll head your way later? Def a weakening trend to the radar echoes as we expected.
That’s ok. Although I could listen to Christmas music blow leaves and watch snowfall at the same time. Lol
young pup wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:41 am
That 71 split is working out pretty good so far. Had a few flakes of snow so far. Taking a quick warm up break in the truck.
CMH is kind of in no man's land right now for snow but another band is approaching Dayton so maybe it'll head your way later? Def a weakening trend to the radar echoes as we expected.
This system had two problems and one is the split of energy with one to our northwest and another along the gom. The second is the system was heading towards the drier air mass compared to this past weekend. The good thing is we never really expected much but I thought we may see a little more light rain then we have seen.
Same here. The lack of QPF is where I will bust. The snow part worked out about what I expected it to down here. I was thinking Dayton might be like us and get a covering but no such luck by the reports we've received on here or lack thereof. Some good tests for us to warm up our skills before December.
Just looked at the latest gfs and though I thought we may have a system early in the week that looks unlikely but showing one later Wednesday lasting into Thanksgiving and another over the following weekend. I tend to argue with the gfs but on this occasion I really like how the gfs looks in the extended. May be the only time this season lol. Really I like what I see and believe the gfs is handling the new pattern that settles in next week. Sure we get a brief cool shot come in on the back end of the second system which could give us a touch of snow but not seeing anything to write home about. After that I expect a milder period so lets see if this plays out.
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:52 am
Just looked at the latest gfs and though I thought we may have a system early in the week that looks unlikely but showing one later Wednesday lasting into Thanksgiving and another over the following weekend. I tend to argue with the gfs but on this occasion I really like how the gfs looks in the extended. May be the only time this season lol. Really I like what I see and believe the gfs is handling the new pattern that settles in next week. Sure we get a brief cool shot come in on the back end of the second system which could give us a touch of snow but not seeing anything to write home about. After that I expect a milder period so lets see if this plays out.
The thing is... if you favor the GFS, then you favor cold. It continues to look cold in the closing days of the month. I haven't made up my mind yet and you know why. I'm still unclear as to how the MJO is going to behave. If it behaves as expected then the warm call to start the month then go cold later is the right call. I'm not sold yet on either solution (warm or cold). I'm honestly undecided which is not typical for me. But I want to get it right so I am dragging my feet a little bit on this.
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:52 am
Just looked at the latest gfs and though I thought we may have a system early in the week that looks unlikely but showing one later Wednesday lasting into Thanksgiving and another over the following weekend. I tend to argue with the gfs but on this occasion I really like how the gfs looks in the extended. May be the only time this season lol. Really I like what I see and believe the gfs is handling the new pattern that settles in next week. Sure we get a brief cool shot come in on the back end of the second system which could give us a touch of snow but not seeing anything to write home about. After that I expect a milder period so lets see if this plays out.
The thing is... if you favor the GFS, then you favor cold. It continues to look cold in the closing days of the month. I haven't made up my mind yet and you know why. I'm still unclear as to how the MJO is going to behave. If it behaves as expected then the warm call to start the month then go cold later is the right call. I'm not sold yet on either solution (warm or cold). I'm honestly undecided which is not typical for me. But I want to get it right so I am dragging my feet a little bit on this.
Les you make a great point and went back to the model run and you are correct the gfs returns to cold after the Thanksgiving weekend. That part of the gfs I disagree with and sometimes we know the gfs has to much climate info involved with anything past 240 hours. So yes I agree with the gfs through the Thanksgiving weekend but after that we switch paths.
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:28 pm
Les you make a great point and went back to the model run and you are correct the gfs returns to cold after the Thanksgiving weekend. That part of the gfs I disagree with and sometimes we know the gfs has to much climate info involved with anything past 240 hours. So yes I agree with the gfs through the Thanksgiving weekend but after that we switch paths.
10-4! I got it. 3 GEFS members (out of 20 so low odds) go as far as showing snow with a southern system following up the Thanksgiving rains. So we'll have to see how the Euro and EPS respond when it gets within their ranges.
In the meantime, we have some light drizzle out there now... so a clammy and nasty afternoon in progress. Drizzle will continue on and off into the evening hours. Then we'll see how those scattered snow showers look for Wed / Thurs.
The signal for a -NAO is also growing for early December. If correct, can that help offset the warmth any or will it have absolutely no impact at all? The Pacific is def more important so we want to see the -EPO / +PNA or something of the sort in conjunction with the -NAO to really get things cooking. It's just a bit too early for me to commit cold or warm at this time. I can see arguments for both. I am seeing signals for both.
Brian had a great video today and I agree with almost everything he mentioned. Yes I believe early December is going to be mild and yes we talked about what happens Thanksgiving weekend and yes we could see a rain to snow pattern play out but I expect it to warm up the following week. Many times we get that -NAO Thanksgiving weekend and not sure why but over the years it seems to happen quite often. Brian mentioned that we could switch back to a colder set up around the 22nd of Dec and I believe that is later than I pictured at the moment. I was going more in line with the 13-17th period where we change the pattern and usually a bigger storm to usher in the change. Once we get that change and hopefully it happens that we have a 2-3 week period of below normal temps and hopefully we will at least get some clippers and snow showers from the lakes. Still believe those two will be a bigger issue this winter for us and though we usually don't see the big storms that often you tend to get some type of snow about every 3 days or so.
I haven't gone warm or cold yet personally, just kind of waiting to see what happens with the MJO. Seeing more models getting it back into 7 before dying off again. 
Of course, we shall see... we can't go that weenie yet.
3 GEFS members (out of 20 so low odds) go as far as showing snow with a southern system following up the Thanksgiving rains. So we'll have to see how the Euro and EPS respond when it gets within their ranges.