tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 21, 2022 8:35 am
The Euro is much slower with the Pre-Halloween weekend system. I'll bet it lingers into the 31st if the Euro went past Day 10. I'll go dry for Halloween right now, but keep in mind, it could change.
Should be interesting next week. The first system even though it may not give us a ton of rain we should get some but also finally starting to moisten up the atmosphere which has been so dry in the past month. Then we get cooler air to flow in here late in the week followed by another system that should bring warm moist air on top of cooler air at the surface which is always a good recipe for rain or snow in the winter time.
I'm still going low with rainfall amounts with the first system. This is due to antecedent dry conditions going in. This is the longest dry stretch we've had (using CVG) in the last 13 years! I saw that stat on Local 12 yesterday. So with that said, that alone makes me want to go drier. But at the same time... if the current frontal passage timing was works out to be Wed afternoon and evening, then we'll have a little heating to work with which is a good thing. however, at the same time, I am still thinking that the rain area will weaken as it moves into our area running to the ridge and dry environment we've got.
Hopefully, this system can act as a "primer" to prime the atmosphere a little bit and give us a little bit of ground moisture too and in the lower levels to assist with better rainfall production for the Pre-Halloween weekend system. I'd like to see some sort of a feedback response like that.
Les I believe what helps is the first system and though we may not get a ton of rain folks to the west of us will and we know in the fall season we don't need a lot to get things somewhat green again. This should help keep the second system with keeping much of its moisture plus the western GOM is loaded and if we can tap that reserve along with cooler temps at the surface I believe we are in business. The one wild card is what you mentioned and that is the short term drought and it has been many years since we had one last this long but we are heading into late Oct so temps will no be scorching and we are into the second rainy season as well.
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 21, 2022 10:32 am
Les I believe what helps is the first system and though we may not get a ton of rain folks to the west of us will and we know in the fall season we don't need a lot to get things somewhat green again. This should help keep the second system with keeping much of its moisture plus the western GOM is loaded and if we can tap that reserve along with cooler temps at the surface I believe we are in business. The one wild card is what you mentioned and that is the short term drought and it has been many years since we had one last this long but we are heading into late Oct so temps will no be scorching and we are into the second rainy season as well.
Def agree with the better rains to our west with this first system. That part is easy and this system has always had that particular look to it. If we can manage 0.25" for example on Wed, I'd take that as a major win.
12Z GFS is a touch faster bringing in some rain Wed morning with the front passing thru Wed afternoon and by evening, then we're done. Then with the second system over the weekend it's a bit slower with this system's departure as I eluded too with the Euro's overnight run.
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 21, 2022 12:34 pm
12Z GFS is a touch faster bringing in some rain Wed morning with the front passing thru Wed afternoon and by evening, then we're done. Then with the second system over the weekend it's a bit slower with this system's departure as I eluded too with the Euro's overnight run.
Les I believe the models are still trying to figure out which system will be stronger as well. It reminds of a winter pattern when we are trying to figure out which system if either can merge into a bigger system. Love to see an inch of rain between both and that would be a normal week for late October. 2 inches would be better but will take 1 inch at this point.
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 21, 2022 12:34 pm
12Z GFS is a touch faster bringing in some rain Wed morning with the front passing thru Wed afternoon and by evening, then we're done. Then with the second system over the weekend it's a bit slower with this system's departure as I eluded too with the Euro's overnight run.
Les I believe the models are still trying to figure out which system will be stronger as well. It reminds of a winter pattern when we are trying to figure out which system if either can merge into a bigger system. Love to see an inch of rain between both and that would be a normal week for late October. 2 inches would be better but will take 1 inch at this point.
An inch would be awesome between both systems, but no way am I that confident in those beefier totals. I'll say a 1/2" between the two systems is possible. Take it and run!
12z Euro has about a quarter of an inch of rain for next week. Timing wise, the main rains occur Tues night. Models def are struggling with the timing here. Then for the weekend system... dry Sat, with light rain Sunday and on Halloween as well. Model stops on the 31st at 8am in the morning but with the low still near Memphis, I would imagine Halloween will look a lot like the day before. Tons of time to figure things out.
young pup wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:05 pm
That little bit of rain we got up here did not help holding the dust down. We did some leaf work today and they were rather dry. Used the mowers to suck up some and the dust was just a flying. Looked like a small dust storm blew up.
I mulched leaves in my yard for the first time last weekend and the dust was indeed awful! Had to take leaf blower when I was done to blow the dust off the mower and such. Heck, put the blower on your car and watch the layer of dust get blown off. We could really use some rain just to rinse things off if nothing else.
Thought about washing the truck today. Decided not to because it will just get dusty again. I have done the blower trick a few times myself.
EDit: I have even blown out the inside of the work truck before.
young pup wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:05 pm
That little bit of rain we got up here did not help holding the dust down. We did some leaf work today and they were rather dry. Used the mowers to suck up some and the dust was just a flying. Looked like a small dust storm blew up.
I mulched leaves in my yard for the first time last weekend and the dust was indeed awful! Had to take leaf blower when I was done to blow the dust off the mower and such. Heck, put the blower on your car and watch the layer of dust get blown off. We could really use some rain just to rinse things off if nothing else.
Thought about washing the truck today. Decided not to because it will just get dusty again. I have done the blower trick a few times myself.
EDit: I have even blown out the inside of the work truck before.
I bet!!! I had to pop the hood on the lawn tractor and blow the engine out too because of all the damn dust.
Good morning all! Enjoy your weekend! At my brother's house now for a fish fry today. Will be home tonight so I can smoke that whole chicken on Sunday! What are you guys doing?
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Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Happy Native American summer!!!! A quick browse of the 12z suite, more beautiful days ahead, another 7+ days of only dust settling rains.
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Good Morning and times are a changing. Great news imo as we see the pattern change models are catching onto this and rainfall totals are starting to go up. We are going into the second wet season and though short in nature lasting usually about 6 weeks we can really use the rain before wnter sets in. The first system later Tuesday and Wednesday has a good chance of seeing 1/2 inch and maybe more as the low pressure comes through the Ohio Valley. Then we turn cooler not colder and another system should come through here sometime over the weekend or Halloween day. That can bring some more beneficial rains to our area. November and the first half should be on the mild side as areas that need to get cold to our north and northwest will see this happen. Again how long this period lasts is always a guess by the models at best and a switch to colder temps will happen but it may be week 4 before we see that change and then I believe we start the early winter that mother nature has been hinting at this fall.
Concerning rain totals over the next 10 days and yes when you have this mini-droughts it can be hard to break free but I believe in mid-autumn the challenge is easier and reason being is cooler air will enter the area at times and warm moist air over cooler air at the surface is almost always a recipe for some rain to fall.
Good Sunday morning folks! 0Z Euro is up to 0.41" now at CVG for the first system for next week. GFS is in nice agreement and the NAM being the NAM wants to produce t-storms and give us even more rainfall. While this is a good sign, is it believable? Second... Euro has light rain Sunday ending Halloween in the afternoon so trick or treating is fine. GFS is slower and shows light rain for Halloween evening for the kids. So we've got a couple of challenges ahead of us to close out Rocktober!
We need about 3 if not 4" of rain right now to bust the drought. Not happening anytime soon, but 0.25 to 0.50" would be welcome news to at least rinse things off and settle the dust down for a bit as has been previously stated. Now I do think that in November, we can turn it around. We usually do with these short term droughts. Remember ours developed late. We were fine back during the heart of summer. So I'm not worried about the dryness lasting all winter. We should see a very active and stormy winter IMO so come spring, we'll be good to go again in this area.
LaNina conditions hanging strong. Easterlies, SOI still impressive and Easterlies expected to pick back up again at months end
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Yea , I checked a week ago and 4-6" of rain is needed for our area to bring drought relief. That's a lot of dust settlers
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 8:52 am
Yea , I checked a week ago and 4-6" of rain is needed for our area to bring drought relief. That's a lot of dust settlers
No doubt! We know that the Nina will be slow to decay, at least the way it looks right now. Probably not peaking until December which is typical for most ENSO peaks anyway. But I do think as I said to Tim earlier that our bigger rains should come back, thinking second half of Nov for a more interesting pattern. Lots of mild weather between now and then is my thinking.
Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 8:52 am
Yea , I checked a week ago and 4-6" of rain is needed for our area to bring drought relief. That's a lot of dust settlers
No doubt! We know that the Nina will be slow to decay, at least the way it looks right now. Probably not peaking until December which is typical for most ENSO peaks anyway. But I do think as I said to Tim earlier that our bigger rains should come back, thinking second half of Nov for a more interesting pattern. Lots of mild weather between now and then is my thinking.
Yea eventually rains will come but the longer it takes, the more damage is done as far as trees and shrubs go. Seen it before many times, some damage showing up already, but alot of damage doesn't show up until months sometimes years later.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 8:52 am
Yea , I checked a week ago and 4-6" of rain is needed for our area to bring drought relief. That's a lot of dust settlers
No doubt! We know that the Nina will be slow to decay, at least the way it looks right now. Probably not peaking until December which is typical for most ENSO peaks anyway. But I do think as I said to Tim earlier that our bigger rains should come back, thinking second half of Nov for a more interesting pattern. Lots of mild weather between now and then is my thinking.
Les we agree on the longer term. The short term we disagree mainly on rain totals over the remainder of Oct. Short term droughts are not bad and sometimes Mother Nature needs will do this and take care of certain foliage that is already in distress though she will also hurt some healthier plants as well but she is not perfect by any means.
Can we hit 80 today and always tough this time of year. We do have the southerly wind which no doubt helps but its usually a period of higher clouds that keep us from hitting 80. I will go with 76-79. Want to see the afternoon models and will there be an increase in rain totals for the mid-week system which has been the trend or will they trim back totals to what they showed a day or two ago.
We also talk about the second severe season which again runs mid-Oct until usually mid-Nov but of course last year we had the rare event in December in western Kentucky. Most of the time the severe weather will be to our south and models tend to overdo forecasting of severe weather in our area. I don't see anything but maybe a rumble or two of thunder at mid-week but folks to the south and southwest may see a period or two of severe weather though no big outbreak. May even see a few tornado's there but again few and far between I believe is most likely.
Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 8:52 am
Yea , I checked a week ago and 4-6" of rain is needed for our area to bring drought relief. That's a lot of dust settlers
No doubt! We know that the Nina will be slow to decay, at least the way it looks right now. Probably not peaking until December which is typical for most ENSO peaks anyway. But I do think as I said to Tim earlier that our bigger rains should come back, thinking second half of Nov for a more interesting pattern. Lots of mild weather between now and then is my thinking.
Yea eventually rains will come but the longer it takes, the more damage is done as far as trees and shrubs go. Seen it before many times, some damage showing up already, but alot of damage doesn't show up until months sometimes years later.
Agree with you 100% here. I am seeing some brown needles on my evergreens as a result.
Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 23, 2022 8:52 am
Yea , I checked a week ago and 4-6" of rain is needed for our area to bring drought relief. That's a lot of dust settlers
No doubt! We know that the Nina will be slow to decay, at least the way it looks right now. Probably not peaking until December which is typical for most ENSO peaks anyway. But I do think as I said to Tim earlier that our bigger rains should come back, thinking second half of Nov for a more interesting pattern. Lots of mild weather between now and then is my thinking.
Les we agree on the longer term. The short term we disagree mainly on rain totals over the remainder of Oct. Short term droughts are not bad and sometimes Mother Nature needs will do this and take care of certain foliage that is already in distress though she will also hurt some healthier plants as well but she is not perfect by any means.
Can we hit 80 today and always tough this time of year. We do have the southerly wind which no doubt helps but its usually a period of higher clouds that keep us from hitting 80. I will go with 76-79. Want to see the afternoon models and will there be an increase in rain totals for the mid-week system which has been the trend or will they trim back totals to what they showed a day or two ago.
Yeah... we do disagree with the short term as you are wetter then I am. Would love for you to be right, but I'm just keeping my call on the conservative side here and you know the reasons why.
80 is doable today for sure. I like 78 for CVG but an 80 in our CWA esp in KY would not surprise me one bit.
I saw that stat on Local 12 yesterday. So with that said, that alone makes me want to go drier. But at the same time... if the current frontal passage timing was works out to be Wed afternoon and evening, then we'll have a little heating to work with which is a good thing. however, at the same time, I am still thinking that the rain area will weaken as it moves into our area running to the ridge and dry environment we've got.
