Absolute Vorticity

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:50 am Hmm so I guess the GOM storm will be Ian and not Hermine!

You probably knew this Mike, but for those that didn't... The "I" storm has the most retired names of any letter that is used to name tropical systems. Everyone will never forget Ike as an example. A total of 11 storms have been retired using the letter "I".

Ione (1955)
Inez (1966)
Iris (2001)
Isadore (2002)
Isabel (2003)
Ivan (2004)
Ike (2008)
Igor (2010)
Irene (2011)
Ingrid (2013)
Irma (2017)

Good Saturday morning all! Anyone get in on that bonus shower activity? I picked up 0.18" here which was very much needed! 54 degrees this morning so feeling nice out there! CVG picked up 0.16" and the Boone Co mesonet site received 0.11". Most of the rain is pushing out of the area now and we won't see much more, if any, for the remainder of the day. We should see some sunshine actually this afternoon allowing temps to get up into the 70s! More clouds are back for Sun morning along with another showier chance as our next front moves thru.

Behind this front, gorgeous fall weather next week with sunny skies and clear nights. Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s can be expected. Ian in the tropics will be the big weather story. Where does it hit then where does it go? GFS keeps shifting West with impacts close to us by next weekend in the form of clouds and showers for Eastern counties. Euro is a swing and a miss East. That's about all we have to monitor over the next week. Our front tomorrow then Ian towards the end of next week.

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cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:50 am Hmm so I guess the GOM storm will be Ian and not Hermine!

What? I told friends last night that Hermine might hit Ft. Myers on one of the models. Wonder why the change?

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:11 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:50 am Hmm so I guess the GOM storm will be Ian and not Hermine!

What? I told friends last night that Hermine might hit Ft. Myers on one of the models. Wonder why the change?

The wave off of African got named first so it got Hermine which left the door open for the "I" storm thus Ian was born!

12Z models now show Ian's rains impacting us next Sat. Something to track this week.

If Ian Fleming were still around via the Fountain of Youth, I could see a Hurricane written into a 007 novel / movie.

Currently 70 here in G'ville.

Radar shows some showers over MN and the Dakotas, and that is our next frontal system for tomorrow morning bringing the shower chance in. Then it's smooth sailing until we see what happens with Ian. 70s today and tomorrow then 60s for highs, 40s for lows as I said warming into the 50s / 60s if Ian approaches next Sat to kick off Rocktober!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:39 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:11 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:50 am Hmm so I guess the GOM storm will be Ian and not Hermine!

What? I told friends last night that Hermine might hit Ft. Myers on one of the models. Wonder why the change?

The wave off of African got named first so it got Hermine which left the door open for the "I" storm thus Ian was born!

Ah Gotcha, Thank you.

74 here and at CVG for the high today. A nice afternoon after the gloomy morning. Look for a repeat tomorrow. Shower chance, cloudy in the morning then sunny and windy in the afternoon.

Afternoon AFD from the boys...

Friday and Saturday`s weather appears dependent on the eventual
evolution of Tropical Cyclone Ian currently in the central
Caribbean. The only note to be aware of is that if the longwave
trough exits to the east through midweek, any remnants
associated with Ian may eventually reach the Ohio Valley
sometime Friday into Saturday. Even if the remnants do
eventually move into the area, at this time, it appears any
weather related impacts would be increased chances for rain.
There is enough ensemble support to allow for some mention of
showers Friday night through Saturday.

Got a couple or so nice rounds of showers along with some thunder and lightning earlier this morning.

Same here! 0.05" here, 0.06" at CVG and 0.02" at the Boone Co mesonet site. We will see sun and breezy conditions this afternoon and the 70s! Last day of the 70s for the next week. Very fall like weather in the week ahead as all eyes are on Ian.

Had some storms move through here as well. Only showing about a tenth of an inch in the gauge here.

CVG ended up with a total of 0.08".

My gauge picked up .20"

Currently 63 here in G'ville.

73 here today but dropping... down to 65 now. Should stay in the 50s, at least down here tonight but 40s for several nights thereafter. Cannot rule out the U30s again either for the same folks who got it previously that Mike had posted on. Should stay in the 60s all next week. If we hit 70 then fine, whatever. Still fall like and below avg.

Good Monday morning all! 52 glorious degrees here on our way up to a high of 68-69. Ok ok maybe a rouge 70 possible. Cooler tomorrow and cooler still on Wed. We will see some real deal fall weather this week.

Good Morning Les and the forecast for this week is almost easy lol. Do we see any frost mid-week and most places no but sometimes in these colder valleys you can get a touch of frost though not a killing one by any means. I do believe this weeks weather will also help getting the leaf change much earlier than the past few so hopefully most of the leaves will have fell before I leave to SC on Oct 27th. Last year that did not happen and when I came back in mid-November the yard was just covered in 2 inches of leaves. This week though I will be having a fire or two in the fire pit.

Good morning Tim! It is an easy forecast until we see what Ian is going to do. Until then, some nice Fall Weather to get outdoor projects or yardwork done. I mowed Friday after work for the first time in almost 2 weeks and it was a bit long in the front but nothing too terrible. We just haven't been getting a ton of rain and the cooler temps will also help slow it down a tad. Leaf color should start to show up more after this week. Seeing a few leaves drop when it's windy but nothing major yet. Still a few weeks away.

In terms of frost, I don't see it for the big metro areas but rural areas do have a shot at some light frost for a couple of nights this week. Expecting temps to stay in the 40s down this way. It would be north of Cincy that a few 30s could be found. Not seeing anything yet to cause ILN to hoist a frost advisory. We're 10-14 days away from that typically occurring.

Did pick up 0.10" over the weekend.

12Z GFS also now into Tampa with Ian just like past Euro runs. Then the moisture gets slung NW into our area on Sat. Not as much rain, light but a step towards the Euro for sure on this run.

Good Afternoon, what a beautiful day. Forecast is rather simple and really two items with the first concerning frost chances Tuesday and Wednesday night. Tuesday night the problem is winds may stay up just enough so we only get into the low 40's for most areas and Wednesday night less wind but the high may be further east and again only low 40's. Either night some lower valley areas can see those temps hitting the mid 30's for an hour or two and some light frost possible but again this is not a killing frost and most folks will be just fine. The next item is the Hurricane and will we have any rain this weekend. Most likely we stay dry and folks say in eastern Ky have a better shot but again only a slight movement in the track and we could see a light rain and cool day on Saturday. Should be milder next week and really a rather typical first full week of October. Nice to see this early cool spell and leaves will start to change quickly imo.

Only 67 here today. Down to 59 now. Let's see how low everyone goes by morning. Should be fun to watch the next few nights.