Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:19 pm**

This next system moving in almost remains me of a clipper system that you'd get in the winter with the radar configuration we are seeing.

inmaSIRKY_.gif

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:33 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:19 pm This next system moving in almost remains me of a clipper system that you'd get in the winter with the radar configuration we are seeing.

inmaSIRKY_.gif

Yessir! I just need most of it to stay south. We are playing in downtown Mason from 6 - 7:30 tonight!

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:49 pm**

Going on a 4 day camping trip next weekend in New Paris OH (Natural Springs) and the GFS is starting to hint at the very same situation that happened exactly one year ago where a strong MCS came through with tornado warnings, flooding rains and wind. This year the chances are looking even better with these MCS's along the boundary of heat to the SW and cool air to our NE. I don't think we'll be able to escape the rain/storms for next weekend?

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:56 pm**

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:33 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:19 pm This next system moving in almost remains me of a clipper system that you'd get in the winter with the radar configuration we are seeing.

inmaSIRKY_.gif
Yessir! I just need most of it to stay south. We are playing in downtown Mason from 6 - 7:30 tonight!

Nothing reaching the ground yet here. Airmass is still a tad dry but it's only a matter of time for my area. Hope you can get your gig in man!

Rain should be on the light side thankfully and more scattered up Mason way as long as the radar presentation doesn't change much.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:59 pm**

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:49 pm Going on a 4 day camping trip next weekend in New Paris OH (Natural Springs) and the GFS is starting to hint at the very same situation that happened exactly one year ago where a strong MCS came through with tornado warnings, flooding rains and wind. This year the chances are looking even better with these MCS's along the boundary of heat to the SW and cool air to our NE. I don't think we'll be able to escape the rain/storms for next weekend?

This outcome wouldn't shock me Joe. However, the 0Z Euro (12Z just got started running) is your friend showing high pressure and a nice weekend for your trip. But personally, I'd like to have the GFS on my side as it continues to perform well with these NW Flow patterns. With northern dominated patterns, thanks to La Nina, the GFS is typically better most of the time. We shall see of course. We have a week to watch for changes.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:11 pm**

12Z Euro has scattered storms instead of the MCS Sun evening / overnight that the GFS is showing.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:15 pm**

At CVG it is 71 / 62 as of the 2pm reading so we are slowly saturating the column.

EDIT: We even have 500 J/KG of CAPE in our SW counties so a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out but I think it'll be isolated. LI's are negative so doubtful we see any lightning or it'll again, be very isolated if we do.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:22 pm**

The 12Z Euro has an MCS impacting many people. This thing races from in from the north and drops due south. If correct, 60-70 mph winds would be likely! The model has this for late Mon afternoon into Mon evening. Then the heat takes over for 2 or 3 days.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:34 pm**

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:49 pm Going on a 4 day camping trip next weekend in New Paris OH (Natural Springs) and the GFS is starting to hint at the very same situation that happened exactly one year ago where a strong MCS came through with tornado warnings, flooding rains and wind. This year the chances are looking even better with these MCS's along the boundary of heat to the SW and cool air to our NE. I don't think we'll be able to escape the rain/storms for next weekend?

Hey Joe, enjoy your trip and the most important thing is to tie down the cooler. The closer we get to these events the models come around. The Euro showing something for Monday like Les mentioned. The ones that move along and then drop straight south can really be a problem.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:45 pm**

Light rain is finally making it to the surface here. Started about 10 mins ago.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:46 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:22 pm The 12Z Euro has an MCS impacting many people. This thing races from in from the north and drops due south. If correct, 60-70 mph winds would be likely! The model has this for late Mon afternoon into Mon evening. Then the heat takes over for 2 or 3 days.

The CIPS analog guidance has an enhanced 30-45% risk for us during this timeframe so def something to keep an eye on.

For my hood - I think this first batch (virga or sprinkles) misses me to the south. The activity in Illinois slides in here tonight but not expecting anything too heavy. Then maybe some more action here tomorrow night and NAM even has some cells around here later on Sunday.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:46 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:34 pm
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:49 pm Going on a 4 day camping trip next weekend in New Paris OH (Natural Springs) and the GFS is starting to hint at the very same situation that happened exactly one year ago where a strong MCS came through with tornado warnings, flooding rains and wind. This year the chances are looking even better with these MCS's along the boundary of heat to the SW and cool air to our NE. I don't think we'll be able to escape the rain/storms for next weekend?
Hey Joe, enjoy your trip and the most important thing is to tie down the cooler. The closer we get to these events the models come around. The Euro showing something for Monday like Les mentioned. The ones that move along and then drop straight south can really be a problem.

Exactly Tim. Def hope the Euro is wrong with that one for Monday.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:48 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:56 pm
rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:33 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:19 pm This next system moving in almost remains me of a clipper system that you'd get in the winter with the radar configuration we are seeing.

inmaSIRKY_.gif
Yessir! I just need most of it to stay south. We are playing in downtown Mason from 6 - 7:30 tonight!
Nothing reaching the ground yet here. Airmass is still a tad dry but it's only a matter of time for my area. Hope you can get your gig in man! Rain should be on the light side thankfully and more scattered up Mason way as long as the radar presentation doesn't change much.

Thanks! That's what I'm hoping for. So far, everything is still a go! We currently have very light rain up here.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:48 pm**

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:46 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:22 pm The 12Z Euro has an MCS impacting many people. This thing races from in from the north and drops due south. If correct, 60-70 mph winds would be likely! The model has this for late Mon afternoon into Mon evening. Then the heat takes over for 2 or 3 days.
The CIPS analog guidance has an enhanced 30-45% risk for us during this timeframe so def something to keep an eye on.

For my hood - I think this first batch (virga or sprinkles) misses me to the south. The activity in Illinois slides in here tonight but not expecting anything too heavy. Then maybe some more action here tomorrow night and NAM even has some cells around here later on Sunday.

You got an image of that? That's a pretty damn high signal, Mike. I don't like the sounds of that.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:49 pm**

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:48 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:56 pm
rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:33 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:19 pm This next system moving in almost remains me of a clipper system that you'd get in the winter with the radar configuration we are seeing.

inmaSIRKY_.gif
Yessir! I just need most of it to stay south. We are playing in downtown Mason from 6 - 7:30 tonight!
Nothing reaching the ground yet here. Airmass is still a tad dry but it's only a matter of time for my area. Hope you can get your gig in man! Rain should be on the light side thankfully and more scattered up Mason way as long as the radar presentation doesn't change much.
Thanks! That's what I'm hoping for. So far, everything is still a go! We currently have very light rain up here.

Good deal! It's light sprinkley stuff so far. One of those, "grab another beer and enjoy the tunes" kind of thing.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:50 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:48 pm You got an image of that? That's a pretty damn high signal, Mike. I don't like the sounds of that.

Sure do!

Screenshot 2022-06-10 144943.png

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:53 pm**

Models I think are agreeing on a frontal passage on Friday of next week. So the 90 degree chances to me only look to be 3. Tues, Wed, and Thurs. I am also making a max high temp at CVG call of 92 instead of this 95 stuff we keep seeing. Let's see how I do.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:54 pm**

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:50 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:48 pm You got an image of that? That's a pretty damn high signal, Mike. I don't like the sounds of that.
Sure do!

Screenshot 2022-06-10 144943.png

Yikes! Sun or Mon is not long range fantasy BS either. Def in the short term boarder line medium range.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:56 pm**

SPC has a marginal risk in place already for Sunday. That was before the 12z data came out so when it gets updated tomorrow (Will become the Day 2 outlook) I'll bet a slight risk gets introduced. If trends continue an enhanced risk is not out the question either. Talking Sunday and even Monday I'd keep my eyes open before the heat wins the battle for a little bit.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:06 pm**

Now this is from the overnight GEFS runs (as was the last image), but it also has a 30-45% risk on TUESDAY. Perhaps it is hinting at some afternoon gusty storms that will feed off the high temps and humidity and keep us from hitting 90 that day? Best chances appear to be north of river.

Screenshot 2022-06-10 150444.png

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:09 pm**

I personally feel Wednesday has the best shot at 90+ for all - less or no storm coverage. Prob a heat advisory type day.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:17 pm**

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:09 pm I personally feel Wednesday has the best shot at 90+ for all - less or no storm coverage. Prob a heat advisory type day.

Agreed. I think Sunday and Monday are possible MCS days for everyone until we get a little closer anyway. Tues looks better for I-70 folks... Wed and probably Thurs hot and dry for all areas. Cold front Friday with storm chances. A nice weekend maybe before the heat attempts to build back the following week which means more t-storm action as it tries to do so.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:19 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:34 pm
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 1:49 pm Going on a 4 day camping trip next weekend in New Paris OH (Natural Springs) and the GFS is starting to hint at the very same situation that happened exactly one year ago where a strong MCS came through with tornado warnings, flooding rains and wind. This year the chances are looking even better with these MCS's along the boundary of heat to the SW and cool air to our NE. I don't think we'll be able to escape the rain/storms for next weekend?
Hey Joe, enjoy your trip and the most important thing is to tie down the cooler. The closer we get to these events the models come around. The Euro showing something for Monday like Les mentioned. The ones that move along and then drop straight south can really be a problem.

Thanks Tim, I'm really looking forward to it and the cooler will be very close to me the whole time. Regardless of the weather, the cold beers will be flowing. With that heat building and pulsating our way at times boarding us with cool shots over the coming weeks, our weather will be active for sure.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:57 pm**

I wonder if I can get the mowing in after all... the light rain I was seeing has stopped. Probably just a Trace here so far.

Posted: **Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:43 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:57 pm I wonder if I can get the mowing in after all... the light rain I was seeing has stopped. Probably just a Trace here so far.

A no go. Yard is just too wet still and slick in the backyard with the steep hill I have. The heck with it, having a beer instead.

I'm on vacation anyway next week so why not.

When I return to work, I work a week then on vacation again the week leading up to the 4th of July to get things ready for my party. Isn't that an awesome work schedule?

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