Re: April 2022 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

12Z Euro has a weakening batch midday Wed coming thru. Then another small line possible late Wed night into early Thurs morning. GFS seems much more impressive with the coverage versus the Euro right now. Hot Friday then decent coverage Sat afternoon and evening with the front.

ILN may have to tone down their excitement from this mornings AFD for severe weather the rest of the week . We need one heck of a return flow for midweek action and late week parameters just don't jump out atm

[tron777]

12Z Euro has a weakening batch midday Wed coming thru. Then another small line possible late Wed night into early Thurs morning. GFS seems much more impressive with the coverage versus the Euro right now. Hot Friday then decent coverage Sat afternoon and evening with the front.

ILN may have to tone down their excitement from this mornings AFD for severe weather the rest of the week . We need one heck of a return flow for midweek action and late week parameters just don't jump out atm

I agree with you on severe prospects... it looks more like the pulse variety type storms that we've been seeing. Bad timing. Carry an isolated risk to CYA, but it's more of a heavy rain issue I think again. SPC has even toned it down with only a Marg risk with the warm front lifting back north on Thurs. Then Friday you have a risk area off to the West and Sat off to the East. Bad timing for us in between. We keep getting the leftovers or the developing stages of storms. You, me, Tim, Mike.... etc. We all keep hammering the point of timing of these pre frontal troughs and cold fronts and very few have been good for severe. Been good for rain and garden variety storms but for severe wx lovers, it's been tough. We have to see the timing improve. As far as POPS go, I think Wed and Sat look to be the highest chances of the week. For Wed, I like the idea of a weakening area of storms / rain to come in. Thurs is more conditional on how quickly we clear out Thurs morning so I'm not as sold on likely coverage. Fri is hot and dry in the warm sector then Sat, we get weakening action early which ruins the chances for severe so things blow up to the east for that one but it's our best chance with the frontal passage all weekend and Sat afternoon looks to be 50-70% coverage at this time.

[tron777]

50 imby this morning! Very refreshing for mid May. CVG dropped down to 54 currently. Another beauty today before we see rain and storms tomorrow. We still look to get a weakening batch early then warm up for an afternoon and evening round of storms. Only an isolated severe storm is expected and this is turning into more of a heavy rain threat as discussed yesterday.

I'm still on the fence for Thursday. Not keeping chances high. Hot and nasty on Friday. Could be our first 90. Then still looking at weakening action on Saturday as well. Cooler and drier on Sunday.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and a great looking day in store for us. Your thoughts are prefect and again timing is the key to us getting some severe weather. Probably the bigger threat is heavy rain and that will have a lot to do with the warm front and where it ends up. Somebody may get several rounds of rainfall if this front stays in place for a period of time. Models will have different outcomes and probably once the first round gets going we have a much better ideal where that heavy rain threat may be located. Friday looks hot and humid and depending on much rain we get will probably determine if we hit 90. Tons of moisture in the ground will tend to make it more humid so dew points are higher which in turn would keep us in that 86-88 range we see so often around this area.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! ILN raised highs to the lower 90s now. I think 90 is doable if we stay sunny. Any CU development and you can forget it. I'd go with the double nickel at this point.

[tron777]

Oh and to my fellow Kentuckians... Don't forget to vote! Today is our May Primary day. I will do so on my lunch hour.

[cloudy72]

Good morning Tim! ILN raised highs to the lower 90s now. I think 90 is doable if we stay sunny. Any CU development and you can forget it. I'd go with the double nickel at this point.

Prob a day where we start our tally of 89's at CVG!

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! ILN raised highs to the lower 90s now. I think 90 is doable if we stay sunny. Any CU development and you can forget it. I'd go with the double nickel at this point.

Prob a day where we start our tally of 89's at CVG!

Unfortunately, nothing will count towards our contest until June 1st. But the first 89'ed of the season is on the table!

[tron777]

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/17/stormt ... pdate-517/

[tron777]

I don't have any changes for tomorrow. We are waiting to see how the morning goes to see if any heating occurs for Wed afternoon and evening. We talked about the boundary's position and the isolated coverage expected for Thurs already. Fri is a cooker and then the front def is slowing down for this weekend. The best chance now may not be until the overnight hours of Sat night / Sun morning with just scattered action prior to that.

[winterstormjoe]

Looks like the GFS keeps messing with our heads with that tropical system in the GOM
I mean, is it going overboard with it? Looks like the model wants to send it up somewhere in the eastern third of the US and time it with a front. Just don't feel very confident with this tropical system at all. Heck, by the time we approach Memorial Weekend, this thing may not even exist!

Edit: Just read where the African dust plume may reach the GOM by this weekend!

[cloudy72]

If the GFS is correct, it would be the earliest landfalling hurricane to hit the US in recorded time. Hurricane Alma was the earliest on June 9, 1966 affecting the Florida panhandle. So def take with a grain of salt

[tron777]

We are watching the tropics for sure... plenty of time to see if the GFS is on to something or just "on something"

12Z Euro is coming in now and for rain... it's got a small chance Wed morning, not much. Then more scattered storms Wed evening. Not very impressive with the coverage or amounts. Then, for this weekend... we get two chances. Sat afternoon and evening and again early Sun morning with the frontal passage.

[Bgoney]

Uh, the GFS is definitely "on something ". Only model that has the unfavorable shear that it would run into, to have no effect whatsoever .

[tron777]

Uh, the GFS is definitely "on something ". Only model that has the unfavorable shear that it would run into, to have no effect whatsoever .

They don't call the 18Z run the Happy Hour run for nothing!

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge reading from late Sun night / early Mon morning was .20"

[tron777]

Good morning! Light rain is moving in so we'll see how much that kills severe chances later. the further south and west you are the better chances you'll get. Prime time looks to be this afternoon and evening if it's going to occur.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. I believe the most likely outcome is some decent rains for most folks later this afternoon and evening. Severe weather looks to be limited in our area but again any storm can produce some high winds and of course heavy rains. Thursday we just see when the warm front decides to head north and if that will produce some isolated storms. Friday looks hot and upper 80's looks good unless we get a push where the dew points go down during the day and temps can rise a few more degrees but some of that will not be known until we see how much rain we get over the next 2 days. Still going 86-88 on Friday. Saturday is interesting as the front seems to be slowing down and if this trend continues I believe a better shot at 90 as we start with temps probably around the 70 degree mark so we won't need to many hours of sunshine to get that temp to rise. Going with 88-90 on Saturday just because the front seems to be slowing down. Later in the day though expect a decent shot of more rainfall that will probably last into Sunday morning and then a few beautiful days in store.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! Agree that today is our best chance vs Thurs. I'm not sold on much happening then. Isolated only. Fri is hot and nasty then Sat also looks to be warmer now too thanks to the front slowing down. Easily mid 80s. Agree with you also Tim on the frontal passage being Sun morning. We should stay in the 60s for highs on Sun behind the front and maybe Low 70s Mon. I-70 folks could see back to back days in the 60s for sure. A couple mornings in the U40s also likely. Next system looks due in about this time next week.

[tron777]

Light rain looks to be weakening as it encounters our dry air mass. We should moisten up though. We'll see how that MCS over STL looks as we progress thru the day. That should be in here for some of us, later this afternoon.

[tron777]

BG Blog Update: https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/18/wave-w ... pdate-518/

[cloudy72]

So far just a ground wetter here

[tron777]

So far just a ground wetter here

Counted about 12 drops. That's been it. Cloudy skies attm. Seeing some breaks S of me but if our skies don't change, the severe threat is going to be just about dead. I question the heavy rain too if we cannot get a little heating going to keep it sustained. Dews are rising up into the 50s now so we're trying to saturate the column a little bit now. Deeper moisture so far is still west over the STL area.

[tpweather]

Concerning the morning drops and really just to moisten up the atmosphere. Severe weather not a concern for the most part but chances for heavy rain are still there imo. First later this afternoon and evening and how far north does the heavier rains go and how many rounds will each area get is the key to any excessive rainfall. The second will be with the warm front Thursday evening into early Friday morning and again will need to watch and see where the front gets active. Then we look at later Saturday into early Sunday morning. So 3 decent chances for rainfall over the next 84 hours or so before we see a couple of beautiful days and then we get back into a stormier pattern for the middle of next week

[tron777]

A peek or two of sun is trying to come out here... but still overcast overall.