Absolute Vorticity

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Mar 24, 2022 10:42 am Early blooms like daffodils i.e. for which my folks and I have some hopefully make it through the next several days temp-wise.

Hopefully by at least Easter weekend onward a more prolonged Spring-like feel temp-wise.

Currently 41 and progged to top out at around 50 later today.

The week after Easter is my Lake Erie trip for the MWC out of Sandusky. Sure hope this crap weather straightens out by then.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Mar 24, 2022 10:42 am Early blooms like daffodils i.e. for which my folks and I have some hopefully make it through the next several days temp-wise.

Hopefully by at least Easter weekend onward a more prolonged Spring-like feel temp-wise.

Currently 41 and progged to top out at around 50 later today.

Spring bulb flowers love the cooler temps, they last longer than if it were in the 70s. Pansies are another that thrive in the cool temps

Some sunshine today with windy conditions and temps currently in the lower 50s. Look for showers to move in from the west by tomorrow for some scattered showers, most numerous tomorrow afternoon. We may see a few pop up later on this afternoon today, but tomorrow should have better lift and dynamics. Then the upper low for early Sat for the flake / sleet / graupel chances.

LOL @ the MJO. It gets into 3, tries to make a run at 4 for real Spring to occur but falls flat. The wave is currently weakening again and I'll bet anything, it'll head towards the neutral circle then eventually re-emerge back into phase 2. That's been the cycle the last few weeks. Phase 2, 3 then COD. It comes back out into 2 and we do it all over again. This is helping the NAO to become more negative and the AO too for the PV to have a bit more fun with us before it retires to the north pole for the season. More of the same thru mid April can be expected IMO. Hopefully the second half can straighten itself out. No guarantees in weather as we all know.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 24, 2022 1:09 pm LOL @ the MJO. It gets into 3, tries to make a run at 4 for real Spring to occur but falls flat. The wave is currently weakening again and I'll bet anything, it'll head towards the neutral circle then eventually re-emerge back into phase 2. That's been the cycle the last few weeks. Phase 2, 3 then COD. It comes back out into 2 and we do it all over again. This is helping the NAO to become more negative and the AO too for the PV to have a bit more fun with us before it retires to the north pole for the season. More of the same thru mid April can be expected IMO. Hopefully the second half can straighten itself out. No guarantees in weather as we all know.

Yea , it's been fairly easy to guess how the MJO would progress over the last 6 weeks or so . Once into the maritimes , it basically has had no chance to advance Into the WPac with those constant easterlies and then the cooler waters near the dateline .

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 24, 2022 12:48 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Mar 24, 2022 10:42 am Early blooms like daffodils i.e. for which my folks and I have some hopefully make it through the next several days temp-wise.

Hopefully by at least Easter weekend onward a more prolonged Spring-like feel temp-wise.

Currently 41 and progged to top out at around 50 later today.

Spring bulb flowers love the cooler temps, they last longer than if it were in the 70s. Pansies are another that thrive in the cool temps

Thank you very much, bro.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 24, 2022 1:31 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 24, 2022 1:09 pm LOL @ the MJO. It gets into 3, tries to make a run at 4 for real Spring to occur but falls flat. The wave is currently weakening again and I'll bet anything, it'll head towards the neutral circle then eventually re-emerge back into phase 2. That's been the cycle the last few weeks. Phase 2, 3 then COD. It comes back out into 2 and we do it all over again. This is helping the NAO to become more negative and the AO too for the PV to have a bit more fun with us before it retires to the north pole for the season. More of the same thru mid April can be expected IMO. Hopefully the second half can straighten itself out. No guarantees in weather as we all know.

Yea , it's been fairly easy to guess how the MJO would progress over the last 6 weeks or so . Once into the maritimes , it basically has had no chance to advance Into the WPac with those constant easterlies and then the cooler waters near the dateline .

I would assume that the Easterlies are still screaming right along at 850 to keep the La Nina going.

Good evening folks! 56 here today! 50 currently. I am sick of the wind, aren't you? Still breezy this evening for sure. I don't see the wind calming down anytime soon with the next upper low dropping in Fri night and Sat. Sunday may see a diminishing trend and Monday I think is good. Winds pick up Tues and Wed with the next system coming in. So the typical wind machine with winter wanting a little action still and spring trying to fully take over. Spring is here but it isn't going to fully take over just yet.

Of course come summer when it's humid as hell and 90, I'd kill for a breeze then!

DT's Brand New This Week in Weather to start off your Friday!

Good morning folks...

Rain showers will develop later on this afternoon and certainly into this evening with the next system poised to move in. Rain showers will change to snow showers by late tonight and def tomorrow morning. We will not make it out of the 30s for highs. No issues expected but a brief dusting and car topper is possible out of this.

Then a few more rain and snow showers possible Mon night into Tues as the warm front develops and moves into the area. Wed is my pick day of the week. Mid 70s expected with a southerly breeze but delightful temperatures.

Rain and storms move back in sometime either Wed night or Thurs. Strong storms will need to be watched. SPC already has an area outlooked for Wed over Western KY. Then we will drop again by Fri / next weekend to begin April.

Chardon, Ohio has significant snow on the way. Attachments tell it all.
No prolonged warm spells likely through at least the first week of April, at least in north east Ohio.

Oh... I forgot to also mention that on Monday morning, that will be the coldest morning we see with this current cool stretch. I'm thinking 20 to 25 around here, but upper teens certainly doable in the usual cold spots, like SE of Columbus as an example.

Snowbrain2 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 25, 2022 7:36 am Chardon, Ohio has significant snow on the way. Attachments tell it all.
No prolonged warm spells likely through at least the first week of April, at least in north east Ohio.

Wow... I hope you get those huge big flakes too! Awesome Jeff! It would also not surprise me to see you post a map like that again in our April thread down the road to kick that month off.

Interesting overnight AFD for tonight and tomorrow from the boys:

The mid level low will shift east across the southern Great
Lakes tonight with better upper level dynamics overspreading
our area through the evening hours. This will be accompanied by
an axis of slightly higher instabilities and increasing low
level lapse rates that will shift east across the region through
this evening. The snow squall index is also picking up on some
of this with increasing values across our area as we head
through tonight. As a result, expect fairly widespread shower
activity to develop this evening and then persist into the
overnight hours, especially across northern portions of our
area.

In developing low level CAA, thermal fields suggest rain
showers will mix with/transition over to snow showers northwest
to southeast across our area through tonight. Scattered snow
showers will then continue into Saturday morning before
transitioning back to a possible mix and gradually tapering off
from the west through Saturday afternoon. Some light snow
accumulations will be possible, primarily on grassy and
elevated surfaces, as ground temperatures will generally remain
above freezing.

Temperatures will remain below normal with lows tonight in the
low to mid 30s and highs on Saturday in the mid 30s to lower
40s.

If anyone wants a good laugh, look at the 6Z GEFS members on the College of DuPage site. Keep it in winter mode and look at snowfall accum and p-types for April 5th around 300 hours. Look at member #15 March 2008 re-do, or probably March of 2008 on Steroids is more like it! Sheesh what a storm!

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/03/25/stormt ... pdate-325/

Wow.. soak up the sunshine those that are seeing it. We've got a brief window this morning over the heart of the Tri-state, Clouds will be back shortly so if you are seeing the sun right now, enjoy it!

Some of these snow squalls tomorrow will look impressive for a few minutes. Some folks will get under a couple bands of snow for some brief accumulations on grassy areas and car tops. It will melt once the snow stops. We need to watch the snow squall parameter and the lapse rates tomorrow. Should be interesting tracking this. Watching the 12Z HRRR come in now if you're looking at the p-type maps, you'll see the speckled nature of the precip type output. Snow squalls!

From the NAM - snow squall parameter looks maxed out and I think that is for tomorrow morning if I am not mistaken

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 25, 2022 9:58 am From the NAM - snow squall parameter looks maxed out and I think that is for tomorrow morning if I am not mistaken


SNSQnam212F027.png

Is that valid for 9Z or 5am in the morning? I hope I got that right now that we're on DST

NAM is trying to drop a narrow band of an inch plus maybe a 2" lolli in the maximized snow squall parameter area.

0.11" QPF at HAO and CMH for Sat morning. 0.07" at CVG and Dayton per 12Z NAM.

The nested NAM has that band thru the N Cincy burbs at 2-3"! That's ridiculous. Come on!

Something else interesting to note, and I may be jumping into full hype mode here LOL Both the Euro and GFS models have K Index values near 20 in that 06-09z Sat timeframe. Could there be a rumble of thunder with these squalls?

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:13 am Something else interesting to note, and I may be jumping into full hype mode here LOL Both the Euro and GFS models have K Index values near 20 in that 06-09z Sat timeframe. Could there be a rumble of thunder with these squalls?

I would gladly accept to be woken up by a loud thunder clap to look outside seeing it pour down snow. Yes please! It is tough to get around here as you know. But the energy is truly impressive per 500 MB vorticity maps so this is a possibility and not totally far fetched. 700 MB Vertical Velocity is very impressive early Sat morning over SW Ohio as well.