Absolute Vorticity

NAM matching up very nicely with GFS surface temp profile so far

Nasty ice storm for CVG on 18Z NAM for Thurs and Thurs night. Yikes....

More ice than snow though with warm 850s

Looks like a lot of sleet for the metro

NAM ending at 1am Thurs night with more QPF to come:

That definitely was not a good snow run , even for our northern counties into dayton

Yes you can see the nam is going to be around 30-50 miles southwest of its previous run. The low is a little slower and slightly weaker but again we are not talking about big changes but with this second piece of energy even small changes can turn out large. What I see from the nam is really the worse possible outcome and that is frz/rain for many hours. That is where I would love to see sleet instead and again there usually is an area of sleet but its usually very narrow and believe its less of a problem with a weaker system.

This is not the FRAM version.




NAM Snow

No doubt the system is filled with moisture. My guess places where it stays all snow could see over a foot. I believe the ratio's though may be lower than the 10-1 that we try and use as a neutral figure. This may be more like 7-1 or 8-1 so some of the snow totals thrown out could be too high imo.

Well, guys/gals been busy prepping. Not quite ready but I did fire up the generators. Hopefully that will keep the ice away for all of us.

the next 48 hours is going to be an absolute, analytical blast!!!

I can realistically see 10-15" of snow for most who remain all snow. Best shot at that to me is Toledo, Lima, Findlay and maybe ILN N Tier of counties. Even Eric has a shot if we see another tick south. Gonna be close because you'll start running into mixing issues near or just south of there to start cutting into totals. We'll see if that jackpot zone shifts north or south as more data arrives. My fear for 85% of the forum area is sleet and freezing rain more then snow. You can deal with snow. You get ice it's game over. You cannot do anything with it.

We may see a little wind with this too so ice is not welcome anywhere. For medical people and people who work from home, like me, power is essential. Hopefully we all keep our power. This is a concern with the cold temps Fri and Sat behind this system. Def prepare now. You have tomorrow to prepare. Even Wed with just regular rain. After that, you're too late.

From the boys:

Major winter storm will be impacting the area. Models are coming
into good agreement regarding a slow moving cold front lying
parallel to a southwesterly upper flow. Still some uncertainty with
respect to precip amounts, but copious moisture advecting and
lifting along the front will produce a wide swath of heavy
precipitation. Falling into warmer air ahead of the front, precip
will be mainly rain through Wednesday morning. Precip is likely to
change to freezing rain, sleet and snow across West Central Ohio
Wednesday afternoon and evening as the low level flow turns north
and the surface cools below 32 degrees mainly due to cold advection.
The change to mixed precip should reach Dayton and Columbus by
Thursday morning following the slow progress of the front, while a
change to all snow is forecast in West Central Ohio as the entire
air column falls below 32. As the front continues southeast, mixed
precip and then snow can be expected to spread across the entire
area Thursday through Thursday night, before snow ceases Friday
morning as the front finally moves out.

Because of the anticipated mix of heavy wintry precip, we have
decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch roughly across the northern
half of the forecast area. Keeping in mind the long duration of this
event, the watch extends from Wednesday morning and afternoon all
the way to Friday morning. Greatest impacts could be from
accumulating snow up to 11 inches in West Central Ohio and ice over
a two tenths of an inch in the vicinity of Dayton, with increasing
winds exacerbating the effects on tree limbs and power lines.

The watch has been issued for locations where we are most confident
that hazardous conditions will occur. Outside of the watch to the
south, there will very likely be impacts that will be addressed with
additional weather headlines within the next day or so.

Arctic high pressure following the front suggests dry weather for
the remainder of the period from Friday afternoon through Monday.
Concern is focused on cold temperatures and wind chills Friday
night/Saturday morning, with below zero values probable over the
northern portions of the forecast area.

18Z RGEM brings the low north into SE KY and into WVA. Almost like an Apps runner track. It's very fast too! Low is already in NY where the NAM at 84 hours has it in TN. So I think the RGEM can be tossed. If you have a low coming that far north, it's going to be a slow mover. A faster moving storm would be weaker and further south anyway. So the RGEM isn't making a lot of sense IMHO.

For kicks, the maps ending at 1am Thurs night. If correct, which I am not buying, but if it is, mainly a sleet and ice storm for AV Country.

Ok so the GFS the last two runs have been nice for snow prospects for a lot of people so here we go with the 18Z run...

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 4:41 pm Ok so the GFS the last two runs have been nice for snow prospects for a lot of people so here we go with the 18Z run...

Who Dey think gonna beat the GFS. Sorry I couldn’t resist. I’m still all fired up about the bengals being in the Super Bowl

A tick south at hour 42 from 12Z... interesting

IND curse is over! Heavy snow Wed evening from Indy to Findlay

This is coming in good right?

NW of I-71 changes over Wed evening and towards midnight from rain to sleet / frz rain.

Snow for I-70 Crew and major sleet / frz rain event by Thurs morning for all of the Metro to N Cincy burbs.

Heavy snow by Thurs evening NW of I-71 with sleet frz rain SE of there, but it will be pushing SE (the heavy snow with time) Thus night. Great run for a lot of folks here...

Thursday afternoon is looking nutz

This is basically a carbon copy of 12Z to me.