Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

Sam has exploded to 140 mph!

Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021

...SAM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 48.5W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1655 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 48.5 West. Sam is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower motion to the
west-northwest is expected over the weekend, followed by a turn to
the northwest on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 140 mph
(220 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is now a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening
is expected through tonight. Some fluctuations in the hurricane's
intensity are then possible early next week.

Sam remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 13.3N 48.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 13.7N 49.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 14.3N 50.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 14.9N 51.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 15.7N 52.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 16.6N 53.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 17.4N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 19.5N 58.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 22.5N 61.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

SamVis.gif

SamInfra.gif

SamEye.jpeg

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
500 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021

...SAM REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 49.7W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

[Bgoney]

Screenshot_20210926-093109_Chrome.jpg

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

Sam probably peaked at 153 mph, 2 short of Cat 5., He is now slowly beginning to weaken.

[tron777]

Sam continues to weaken - down to 125/

We have two more waves (Central ATL and off the African Coast. Both of these are likely to get a name within the next 5 days.

[Bgoney]

As of 11am advisory, Atlantic Ace has reached 100

[tron777]

As of 11am advisory, Atlantic Ace has reached 100

50 more to go to reach the min benchmark. Two more named systems easily yet to come. Should have a really good chance.

[tron777]

Sam is back up to 130 again. Two tropical waves ion the ATL now have a high chance to develop,

[Bgoney]

As far as tropical systems affecting USland, i don't see anything of significance on the models through the first ten days of October

[tron777]

TD 20 is born off the African Coast. This one will likely get a name but remain a fish storm.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.s ... t#contents

[tron777]

TD 20 is now TS Victor - Again should remain a fish storm.

Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
800 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021

...VICTOR FORMS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.3N 25.5W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM S OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 8.3N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 8.8N 26.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 9.5N 28.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 10.3N 30.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 11.4N 32.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 12.8N 34.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 14.7N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 19.3N 38.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 24.9N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH

[MVWxObserver]

Something how's there no U, X, Y, and Z storm names.

Its like get creative NHC ~~ Ulysses, Xavier, Yvonne, and Zach i.e.

[tron777]

Sam has ramped back up to 145 mph now... this will help out the seasonal ACE. TS Victor this morning has winds of 45 mph. Both systems pose no threats to the CONUS.

[tpweather]

Been an interesting tropical season and yes its starting to wind down. What makes it interesting to me is how some of these systems have made it very far north with parts of Iceland getting a blizzard during the past week. Temps were marginal in the low-mid 30's but the amount of winds made it a blizzard with roads closed.

[tron777]

Been an interesting tropical season and yes its starting to wind down. What makes it interesting to me is how some of these systems have made it very far north with parts of Iceland getting a blizzard during the past week. Temps were marginal in the low-mid 30's but the amount of winds made it a blizzard with roads closed.

If you remember Larry, he dropped feet of snow on SE Greenland on his way out.

[Bgoney]

Long-lived Sam adding a ton of Ace. Up to 115 or so atm

[tron777]

Long-lived Sam adding a ton of Ace. Up to 115 or so atm

Beautiful! Still have a month to go before the tropics really start to drop off.

[tron777]

Sam has peaked this morning with winds of 150 mph! TS Victor is up to 60 mph this morning.

[tron777]

Sam is at 130 and weakening finally, but could add on a total of 50 ACE points by the time all is said and done. Victor is barely a TS at 40 mph.

[tron777]

Sam is down to 105 mph now moving NE with quickly. Will die a slow death off the SE Greenland Coast pretty soon and most likely bring more snow to that zone as it does so.

TD Victor has winds of 35 mph and will slowly go away over the next few days.

[tron777]

Sam has generated 50.2 for ACE now bringing the total for the season up to 133.8. Well above avg of course for this point in the season. I believe avg is 105 in a single season.

[tron777]

Even above 40 degrees lat. Sam is still a 105 mph hurricane this morning adding on to that ACE! Victor is barely hanging on as a TD with winds of 30. Only thing of note is a wave in the Caribbean that only has a 20% chance in the next 5 days.

[Bgoney]

Sam gave his all in the ace dept. I still don't see anything of significance for US through mid month. Shear along the east coast and down to Florida present

[tron777]

Sam gave his all in the ace dept. I still don't see anything of significance for US through mid month. Shear along the east coast and down to Florida present

I agree... it's going to be slow for a little bit. We should see one or two more systems though in October. Should be more of a home brew system either the Gulf or Caribbean as the Cape Verde seasons begins to wind down.