Absolute Vorticity

ILN is waiting until Mon to bring in POPS and I agree due to the uncertainty I mentioned above.

83 here today, CVG also hit 83. Should be a carbon copy tomorrow and Wed. Slowly decreasing temps into the 70s as the rest of the week / weekend progresses. Then 70 or so next week as chances for rain return. As long as the slower idea works out due to the blocking pattern in place, this should work out. Will continue to monitor in the days to come.

Keeping it dry thru Sat but now I am going to have to put in POPS for Sunday into early next week. Euro is sticking with Sunday now and gives us 1/2" of rain at CVG thru Mon morning. The GFS keeps doing it on Sat instead but still believe that is too fast because of the blocking.

Good Morning and was shocked to see the very quick thundershower overnight. Probably lasted 2 minutes. Another warm day in store with temps in the low 80's Models are having problems figuring out the upcoming events starting over the weekend. As we know the tropics just bugs the heck out of the models but they finally come around. As we are starting to see the systems are hanging out more in the ocean with and not a direct southeast to northwest direction they tend to move in the heart of the season. Can one blow up in the gom and sure but again how far north would that system be able to go. Early in the month the mjo looked like it was heading towards 4 and then 5 but instead stayed in 3 and this provided a very warm and humid month. So all in all the next several days are boring but wonderful in terms of getting outdoor activities taken care of before the weather starts to act up again. Heading to SC on Wednesday but it will be a short trip and should be back this weekend and will be in town until Nov 5th or so.

Naturally nothing here overnight thanks to The Dome but some of you may have gotten lucky. Naturally Tim got a ground wetter out of the deal.

So my present for coming home - a nice lightning show! Only 0.05" as the heaviest missed me to the north of course, but was nice to see the lightning show. Didn't think it was supposed to rain last night....shows how much I have been paying attention to the weather in my cell phone deprived vaca spot!

Welcome back Mike! Maybe the weather will pick up now that you've returned.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 7:55 am Welcome back Mike! Maybe the weather will pick up now that you've returned.

Thanks, Les! Doesn't look very promising for the short term at least....but it is autumn so nothing unusual.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 7:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 7:55 am Welcome back Mike! Maybe the weather will pick up now that you've returned.

Thanks, Les! Doesn't look very promising for the short term at least....but it is autumn so nothing unusual.

I agree... it usually is boring until the tropics either turn things around, or the natural southern progression of the jet by later in Oct or in Nov.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 7:49 am So my present for coming home - a nice lightning show! Only 0.05" as the heaviest missed me to the north of course, but was nice to see the lightning show. Didn't think it was supposed to rain last night....shows how much I have been paying attention to the weather in my cell phone deprived vaca spot!

Awakened about 12:30am with possibly the loudest clap of thunder I've ever heard. It didn't help that the windows were open and I wasn't expecting any rain, let alone thunder. Lighting tracker showed it less than a mile from my house. Although heavy rain was nearby, only a ground wetter here.

Its a stink bug invasion here. They are all over the outside of the house. Didn't have this many cicadas,lol

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:58 pm Its a stink bug invasion here. They are all over the outside of the house. Didn't have this many cicadas,lol

Same thing here they are terrible!

83 again here today, while CVG topped out at 84.

Rain chances continue to speed up is the main weather challenge right now. Sat afternoon now has a chance, highest in the west. Likely on Sun now into Mon of next week. A few lingering showers also possible on Tues as well. Still going dry and beautiful thru Friday.

GFS bring in the showers late Sat while the Euro has it coming in Sat night. Both models show a high chance for rain esp the Euro for Sun into Mon as well. If correct, the Euro spits out an inch of rain thru the period at CVG. We could use it!

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/09/29/goode- ... -blog-929/

No major changes to the timing of the rain this weekend. Looks like it'll be late afternoon IMO. Sunday offers up likely action so if you have outside plans, do it on Sat and early if possible versus waiting until Sunday.

12Z Euro is still a tad slower then the GFS. Showers are possible late Sat and Sat night but the highest chances are on Sunday per this model. We'll have a shot everyday next week with a cut off low but I think chances decrease at this point (Low chances) from Tues onwards. Euro has low chances from Mon onwards with Sunday the best chance.

Oh it will rain Saturday. We have a family reunion early afternoon then a block party in the evening. Both outdoors of course.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:59 pm Oh it will rain Saturday. We have a family reunion early afternoon then a block party in the evening. Both outdoors of course.

You might be okay in the early part of the afternoon but for the block party in the evening, yeah it wouldn't surprise me to see showers in the area. Cheer for the Euro, it's your best bet. GFS's solution is not good bringing in the rain faster.

Gonna fire up the grill and do some steaks for supper. An awesome afternoon out there really to do anything. Gorgeous thru Friday for sure then we'll see how Sat looks when we get closer. Sunday def is the wetter of the two days this weekend. That much I think we can be confident on.

81 here today, 82 at CVG.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:00 pm 81 here today, 82 at CVG.

87 here in Greenville but dews in the 50's so not bad

79 here in my Greenville and dews in the low 30s.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:53 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:00 pm 81 here today, 82 at CVG.

87 here in Greenville but dews in the 50's so not bad

That's awesome for down there!