Absolute Vorticity

Currently 86 here

So far 84 has been my high temp today - warmest of the year thus far.

Good evening folks! A late Spring / early Summer weather pattern .... about a month early... but anyways... has settled into the region. Little if any rain thru Tues of next week. By Wed, hopefully changes start to emerge. Easy forecast for the next 5 or 6 days... highs 85 to 90 with lows 60 to 65.

Lots happening on our forum folks! Tropics are firing up with Ana potentially developing as our first named storm so check out the Tropics subforum for details there. With the weather warming up.... the Cooking subforum and Outdoor/ Nature subforum is also heating up with activity as folks get their gardens / flowers in and mow their lawns. We are posting pics in the appreciate areas of our forum so please join in on the fun!

Summer is upon us so don't forget to post in the pinned Cicada Thread as Broad X Emerges! Also do not forget that the deadline for the Annual CVG 90 degree contest is coming soon! Memorial Day is the last day you can enter so get those guesses in!

Let's utilize our wonderful new forum and keep things fun and hopping all during the summer season!

Warmest Day of 2021 so far here with a high temp of 85 degrees. Same thing at CVG.

Australia still breaking cold records.

A record-breaking cold snap is affecting eastern Australia this week, with Sydney, NSW recording its coldest run of May nights since 1967.

The minimum temperatures in the city dropped to 8.6 °C (47 °F) on Thursday morning, May 20, 2021, marking the coldest run of May nights (5 in a row) since 1967, when the temperature fell below 9 °C (48 °F) for six nights in a row.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), the past 5 days also marked the coldest run of nights this early in the year since 1955.

The cold air mass that swept through northern parts of NSW on May 16 brought record low temperatures this early in May, including -7.5 °C (18.5 °F) in GlenInnes, -5.2 °C (22.6 °F) in Tenterfield, 2.5 °C (36.5 °F) in White Cliffs, and 5 °C (41 °F) in Ballina.

The temperatures are expected to drop again on Friday morning, May 21, and continue over the weekend, with parts of NSW ranges dropping below freezing.

Frosts are forecast across parts of the Southern Downs in Queensland, through the northern ranges of New South Wales, the ACT, northern Victoria, and Tasmania.

Meanwhile, two cold fronts are expected to arrive this weekend in Western Australia's South West, bringing showers, possible storms, and even the potential for snow, BOM meteorologists said.

And in Europe temperatures continue below normal and will finish the rest of May that way.

I like what I have seen pro mets posting with regards to the trends using our new 30 year climate normals. Winter seems to get going later like Feb - Mar with cooler springs in April and May. Summer takes longer to get going, but once it does, the warmth lingers on longer into autumn. The seasons have kind of shifted a bit on my opinion. This spring seems to be following that pattern. Even in the CONUS, we're warm, but the cold and snow is in the Rockies so someone is still getting it.

I have no changes to the current forecast thru next week. Still looking like Wed and Thurs for POPS as temps start to cool back down towards 80 by then. For the Holiday Weekend, the models differ on timing but they all show storm chances and a slow moving cold front to deal with. GFS looks wet even as we roll into early June as well.

Dropped to 60 here this AM. Currently plowing through the 70s heading towards another mid to perhaps upper 80s day. I like your forecast Les, looks simple the next few days as you indicated. Holiday weekend am hoping for dry weather, but models aren't looking too promising at the moment.

Thanks Mike! We will need the rain after the ridge breaks down, so honestly, I am hoping that the wetter solution is correct.

Mid 80s now across the region...

12Z Euro this afternoon looks spotty with rain chances until Fri of next week.

84 here today

Currently 82 here in G'ville.

Also there's an air quality alert for parts of the Tri-state until midnight Sat morning.

Yeah, spring jumped into summer pretty quickly!! At least it hasn't been too humid yet! My high for the week so far has been 88 . Glad we picked up 0.89" in the gauge with the rain earlier this week. Was perfect to soften up the ground for the cicadas! lol

If we don't get anything in the gauge this week, we will certainly need it by next weekend. Need for rain and appreciating it will make rain on a holiday weekend easier to accept!

Good Saturday morning to you all! I am still going dry thru Tues and bringing in POPS from Wed onwards next week. Current GFS run has the highest chances Thurs, Fri, Sun, and Mon. The Euro keeps rain chances spotty the entire time with more warmth versus the wetter and cooler GFS. I am siding with the wetter and cooler GFS and I also believe that the trough will be back late May into early June as well. Plenty of Ensemble Support from the GFS and Euro on this.

Low was 58 this morning so a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. Still think mid or upper 80s are a lock today.

Agreed Mike... Low to mid 80s already popping up across the region at the noon hour.

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance indicates a series of mid-level
disturbances will move from the central U.S. into the Great
Lakes/Northeast during the upcoming work week. It seems plausible
that strong to severe storms will focus in mesoscale corridors given
the overall pattern (i.e., void of a large, eastward-advecting
elevated mixed layer, lack of a rich moisture reservoir in the low
levels) being unfavorable for large-scale severe outbreaks.
Nonetheless, strong to severe storms will likely associate with the
aforementioned disturbances but some timing/placement issues at this
time preclude potential severe highlights. Towards the end of the
extended period, uncertainty increases due to model variability.

..Smith.. 05/22/2021

Currently 79 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 84 later.

Good Afternoon and glad to home though had a great time in Hilton Head. Not even looked at the weather since early in the week so I have some homework lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 12:44 pm Good Afternoon and glad to home though had a great time in Hilton Head. Not even looked at the weather since early in the week so I have some homework lol.

Great to see you back, Tim!

How was your golf game?

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 12:51 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 12:44 pm Good Afternoon and glad to home though had a great time in Hilton Head. Not even looked at the weather since early in the week so I have some homework lol.

Great to see you back, Tim!

How was your golf game?

Did not play golf at all. Just my wife and we had a wonderful time on the beach and driving some small boats which was a blast. Also hit the Jimmy Buffet housing development about 20 miles or so inland. Very nice for the 55 and above but not sure I can take the 90's for 3-4 months straight.

Nice warm up and should last through mid-week. The pattern is a little different than normal with this increase in heat. Usually this time of year we are getting warm ups from the south central part of the country but the troughs have been located mainly over the central part of the USA. This increase in temps is what you tend to see later in June through August with the heights building up from the southeast part of the country. That is why I believe the above temps will not be around to long as we will be close enough to the troughs later in the week to give us chances of rainfall and then some cooler temps.

Good afternoon all! Welcome back, Tim! So glad you are home for a while to talk weather with us. Lots going on so get with it as soon as you're able to do so.

I got the yard all finished up with the trimming of the bushes and edging along the driveway. Just have to water the new plants / seeds tomorrow. Love seeing the new plants starting to grow that our 2021 growing season is under way.

I am going with dry thru Tues then chance POPS Wed thereafter. Too early to know which days are best yet with the models continuing to change with timing of each impulse / cold front. The ridge finally gets beaten down the second half of next week and we turn wetter but how wet is the question still and on which days.

Models continue to show troughiness late May into early June for the long term so... Holiday weekend plan wise, please stay tuned as we continue to fine tune POPS once we get closer. Tim... we are on the same page here.

The pattern going into early June to me looks blocky with a cloudy / showery pattern thanks to a cut off low.

85 so far at CVG today, 86 here.