February 2025 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Euro is running now...

[tron777]

I like what the GFS has been cooking for Tues into Wed of next week. 18Z run is a bit stronger and north with a strong wave tracking along the arctic boundary with the PV pressing down. -40s and -30s across S Canada with 70s in S Texas. Nice temp contrast across North America for this system to work with. We will have plenty of cold air in place. It will be a high ratio snow too with temps in the 20s IMO certainly possible at this early stage of the game. It will be cold leading into it too before hand so sticking won't be a problem either. Only question is how much QPF do we get to play with?

What can go wrong Dept? Well the energy comes out in two pieces so the system is weaker, so much less moisture. We need it like the OP GFS and GEFS also where it is one piece that ejects out of the West. The PV pressing down is okay so it can't cut NW of us in my opinion as long as the current timing with the arctic jet holds. I am starting to hit the talk of next week harder. Could be our next thread starter? We might know by this weekend give or take.

[tron777]

Euro is running now...

For Sat and Sun, the low is SE of Cincinnati now so models now agree today on taking the low SE of us but how much is the question in terms of any snow on Sunday. Euro has more of a deform look but it misses to the NW due to the low being too close to us. GFS has an inch of rain coming up with this one and Euro 2"+. Yikes!

[tron777]

Euro is much colder and suppressed for next week. Only some light snow. The PV just crushes anything that tries to get going.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 42, DAY 38 and CMH 43 today.

[Bgoney]

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...

Confidence remains high in significant rainfall-related impacts on
Saturday and Saturday Night with model guidance in excellent
agreement depicting a swath of 3-6 inches of rainfall in the 24-hour
period across the region. Although models vary slightly with the
placement, they almost unanimously depict a corridor of heavy rain
about 750mi long centered somewhere in TN/KY. This same region has
generally seen above average precipitation in recent weeks, with the
14-day precip in much of KY, N TN, WV, and W VA at least double the
normal values. The confluence of these factors should make the
region especially vulnerable to flooding from the predicted
rainfall. For additional context on the current hydrologic picture
across the region, refer to the National Hydrologic Discussion from
the National Water Center at water.noaa.gov.

Convection may be ongoing at the beginning of the forecast period
and should become increasingly focused along a developing warm front
to the east of a surface low that will be emerging out of the Plains
on Saturday. The front will be positioned on the nose of very strong
SW, or even WSW, inflow, which should favor backbuilding and
training and a corridor of very heavy rainfall. The environment will
be atypical of mid-February with PWATs reaching around 1.5 inches
and MUCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg. For example, the Nashville sounding
archive exists back to 1948 and they've only ever reached 1000 j/kg
MUCAPE once in February, and 1.5 inch PWATs a few times. The
environment will support rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per
hour, and given the potential for training and backbuilding, these
rates may be sustained for several hours in some locations. These
would be the areas of greatest concern for flash flooding -- not
only in terms of likelihood but severity -- particularly if the
higher rain rates are sustained over urban areas or vulnerable
terrain for extended periods of time
It's worth noting a couple additional things. First, the amount of
rain forecast from E KY into S WV and W VA in particular is quite
unusual for the heart of the winter season. Calendar day precip
records across that area for January and February are generally in
the 2-3 inch range, and NBM probabilities indicate it is likely (60+
percent chance) we will see these types of 24-hour rainfall totals
in those areas. Second, this relatively rare winter rain event would
be delivered to an area that has been quite wet recently, and in
some areas has snow on the ground. And third, the high-end scenarios
in much of the Moderate Risk area would be significant by historical
standards. The NBM 90th percentile from N TN into S/E KY and S WV is
on par with the top several wettest days (for any season!) in the
station records in the area. This corridor is where the greatest
concern for severe impacts exists, and it's possible an upgrade to
High Risk may be needed for portions of the area in subsequent
updates.

IMG_3205.png

[tpweather]

Good Morning and all eyes are on the weekend forecast. Pretty wild system and tons of moisture available. The NWS throws out totals and have 2-5 and 3-6 for most areas of Kentucky. Everyone in our area should get at least an inch of rainfall by say 6pm Saturday. After that a heavier band of rain shows up and this is when the bigger problems start but where will this be located. Many times when you see these bands they sort of get stuck and if your in that band for several hours the totals go up quickly. Also models tend to push this further north but the band itself sometimes keeps it more confined. That is when you get some huge totals in a smaller area and would not be surprised at all there are some totals over 6 inches which is something you may see in the March-May period but mid-February seldom does this much rain fall. If the forecast holds and the totals are meant my guess Kentucky will issue a state of emergency at some point. Eastern Kentucky with the hills and mountains are no doubt the most likely places to have flooding.

Will watch the trends and at this point in the game I have 1-2 inches locally but will keep an eye on how far north the band goes later Saturday. There is a decent cold front that will come through overnight Saturday and by Sunday much colder temps with some light snow or flurries but will need to watch for some flash freezing if temps tank quickly and get below the 32 degree quickly. Many times you will have wind to help dry up the roads but will the amounts we are talking we may need more than rain and a slower fall in temps would help but just something that is possible but too early to say its going to be a big problem.

Next week cold and some energy moving through but at this point models will have it weak and to the south one run then a good hit the next run. The cold may keep the piece of energy further south but need to see where a strong high pressure sets up to give any kind of decent forecast. Mid-Feb and storms tend to start tracking further north than models show but if its a brutal outbreak of cold it can keep moisture well to the south. I know its cold but just not sure how far south it goes before it stalls and that is normally where you start to see a piece of energy form.

[tron777]

Good morning! I am going with 1-2" of rain for us. 2-4" for SE Crew. Flood Watch in effect for our SE Crew zones per ILN.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
216 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

KYZ094>100-OHZ079-081-082-088-131615-
/O.NEW.KILN.FA.A.0001.250215T1800Z-250216T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Brown-Adams-
Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Butler, Pike Lake, Aberdeen, Brooksville,
Maysville, Crittenden, West Union, Dry Ridge, Mount Orab,
Peebles, Seaman, Owenton, Head Of Grassy, Wheelersburg, Camp Dix,
Tollesboro, Augusta, Georgetown, Piketon, Waverly, Portsmouth,
Williamstown, Winchester, Mount Olivet, Vanceburg, Ripley,
Manchester, and Falmouth
216 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...The following counties, in Kentucky, Bracken, Grant,
Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson and the following
counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Pike and Scioto.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

[tron777]

The GFS and CMC do track the low far enough South and East that the heaviest rain misses us which is good. Euro is close enough though where the heaviest action does move thru our SE Crew zones. Then, snow showers, wind, and falling temps on Sunday so a "lovely" weekend on tap. At least we have a dry but cool Valentine's Day coming up tomorrow with some sunshine early in the day.

For next week... the GFS and CMC still show the system for around Wed. The Euro sure got kind of frisky with it. Doubtful this will evolve like that but one can dream right? Look at all that QPF with those COLD temps! Love to see it!

Code: Select all

CVG

WED 12Z 19-FEB -10.2    -7.8    1038      77      88    0.10     559     530    
WED 18Z 19-FEB  -8.0    -5.8    1035      75     100    0.03     558     532    
THU 00Z 20-FEB  -7.1    -5.1    1031      82     100    0.03     558     534    
THU 06Z 20-FEB  -7.1    -4.0    1024      89     100    0.21     555     537    
THU 12Z 20-FEB  -9.2    -6.4    1018      88      98    0.55     545     531    
THU 18Z 20-FEB  -9.2   -13.4    1022      74      92    0.13     537     520    

[tron777]

GEFS isn't quite that enthused. But the EPS isn't looking too shabby and neither is the GEPS (Canadian Ensemble). It may not be as nice as the 0Z Euro shows it., but even half of that QPF would still allow us to break out the shovels due to high snow to liquid ratios.

[Bgoney]

IMG_3207.png

[Bgoney]

Wouldn’t take a whole lot for the weekend system to be something noteworthy for north of 71 and I70crews for snow . A 4-6hr slower passing of the low would make a big difference in the cold air catching up with the moisture

[tpweather]

Wouldn’t take a whole lot for the weekend system to be something noteworthy for north of 71 and I70crews for snow . A 4-6hr slower passing of the low would make a big difference in the cold air catching up with the moisture

I agree Bgoney and what I am starting to see on the models and I believe its true is some blocking towards Greenland and Eastern Canada. I believe the system this weekend is showing that happening and this will probably continue next week. Will that help in creating a stronger system around the 19th or 20th. Yes that is possible but again how far south will the cold go before slamming on the brakes and then develop another systems. By then the GOM should have recovered enough for moisture available to feed into another system.

[tron777]

My follow up appt with my surgeon went well! At work now eating my lunch, then I have a call at 11 to jump on. After that, I'll be back to post and look at this weekend as well as next week in more detail.

[tron777]

My call was cancelled so let's talk weather!

For this weekend, the 12Z GFS too a bump back to the NW. We'll have to wait and see how fast the system is moving to gauge any backside snow potential. Right now, I don't think it is looking too good for anything decent, just minor accumulations. The bigger story will be heavy rains and some localized flooding esp in the SE counties.

[tron777]

For next Tues - Wed.... the 12Z GFS was better then the 6Z run. Hope to see it come in more amp'ed up in future runs.

[tron777]

The Canadian for next week still isn't great but it was an improvement over the 0Z run at least.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS for next week looks more suppressed then previous runs.

[tron777]

[tron777]

12Z Euro has 0.23" for QPF next week but it's drawn out over about a 30 hour period. Still a better solution being shown vs the CMC and GFS.

[Bgoney]

IMG_3213.gif

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 15 2025 - 12Z Sun Feb 16 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

2030Z Update...

At least on the synoptic scale, no changes to the previous thinking
with respect to what is expected to be a high-impact flash flood
event across areas of the TN/OH Valleys and possibly the central
Appalachians during the day Saturday through Saturday night. The
latest global model consensus/NBM guidance continues to support an
event capable of producing a relatively widespread 3 to 6+ inch
rainfall event in a general southwest to northeast fashion across
the region. There has been just a bit of a trend southwestward with
the corridor of heaviest rainfall, but with concerns for a
widespread/organized convective outbreak across portions of the
Lower MS Valley/Mid-South, there may tend to be some additional
trends in the guidance for heavier rains somewhat farther south.
This would account for the likelihood of supercell thunderstorm and
QLCS evolutions. Therefore, some modest adjustment of the Slight
and Moderate Risk have been accommodated, however, for parts of the
central Appalachians, the Moderate Risk are was expanded a bit
farther north to account for extreme hydrological sensitivities
antecedently and especially with a melting snowpack concern.

The preference was to hold off on a High Risk upgrade today pending
arrival/inclusion of the HREF guidance and its handling of this
event which may necessitate spatially a different placement of it relative
to where the NBM/global models would currently tend to favor it.
Also, it is possible that the HREF CAM solutions may locally favor
even heavier totals (i.e. 6+ inch storm totals) given an excellent
set-up for training convection with high rainfall rates up to
2+"/hour. Synoptically, this has the hallmarks of being a high-end
Maddox-type flash flood event regardless of where exactly the
heaviest totals occur.

[tron777]

I like 1-2" of rain for us and I think the SE Crew gets the most where the flood watches are located. 2-4" is a good call there. It is close though for Cincy, no doubt!

[tron777]

18Z GFS is back NW with a strong low coming right at us. Heavy rain now pretty much along and SE of I-71. Not a run I wanted to see.

EDIT: 2 to 2.5" being shown for CVG Land. Yikes!

[Bgoney]

Those 2-4” amounts keep covering more of CVGland per GFS , with rumbles of thunder, and mostly in a 24 hr period. Trough taking on a negative tilt also. So anymore shifts west, severe weather could creep north into Central/western Ky. (GFS)

[tron777]

Then we get a suppressed pos for next week lol Long ways to go with that one, but it is a viable solution if the PV is too much of a bully.