Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 3:41 pm Great Post Les and nice outline of what may happen. I have no problem with some warmth later this week and then we reset the pattern and go for broke lol. I still believe we see a better shot at a second storm probably on MLK day. Exactly where this goes is still up in the air but just love that the GOM is still loaded and getting the difference in temps will help fuel another system. The first system does look like a rain to back end snow but those tend to not provide much in the way of snow for us locally

Agreed Tim. Cold air chasing departing precip usually never works. Only way it works is for it to come in so fast that it undercuts the warm air and you get some nice anafrontal precipitation rates to dynamically cool you to snow. Rare occurrences though.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 3:42 pm I hit 41 here! Shocked the heck out of me! Strong southerly flow and some sun trumped the snow pack that is for sure.

A couple of days ago I would have said no way but the air behind the system on Friday was never that cold and another system to our north was able to get the southerly flow going, So yes surprised though by late yesterday you could tell this air mass was really mild and with no snow we would have been in the 40's both days.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 3:45 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 3:42 pm I hit 41 here! Shocked the heck out of me! Strong southerly flow and some sun trumped the snow pack that is for sure.

A couple of days ago I would have said no way but the air behind the system on Friday was never that cold and another system to our north was able to get the southerly flow going, So yes surprised though by late yesterday you could tell this air mass was really mild and with no snow we would have been in the 40's both days.

For sure Tim!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 3:44 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 3:41 pm Great Post Les and nice outline of what may happen. I have no problem with some warmth later this week and then we reset the pattern and go for broke lol. I still believe we see a better shot at a second storm probably on MLK day. Exactly where this goes is still up in the air but just love that the GOM is still loaded and getting the difference in temps will help fuel another system. The first system does look like a rain to back end snow but those tend to not provide much in the way of snow for us locally

Agreed Tim. Cold air chasing departing precip usually never works. Only way it works is for it to come in so fast that it undercuts the warm air and you get some nice anafrontal precipitation rates to dynamically cool you to snow. Rare occurrences though.

Yes you are correct and this is the coldest shot of the year so it can move in quicker. Wow we are going to be busy starting later this week and even the system later Tuesday could provide a skinny inch plus the roads will be cold and especially if this happens just after dark

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 3:53 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 3:44 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 3:41 pm Great Post Les and nice outline of what may happen. I have no problem with some warmth later this week and then we reset the pattern and go for broke lol. I still believe we see a better shot at a second storm probably on MLK day. Exactly where this goes is still up in the air but just love that the GOM is still loaded and getting the difference in temps will help fuel another system. The first system does look like a rain to back end snow but those tend to not provide much in the way of snow for us locally

Agreed Tim. Cold air chasing departing precip usually never works. Only way it works is for it to come in so fast that it undercuts the warm air and you get some nice anafrontal precipitation rates to dynamically cool you to snow. Rare occurrences though.

Yes you are correct and this is the coldest shot of the year so it can move in quicker. Wow we are going to be busy starting later this week and even the system later Tuesday could provide a skinny inch plus the roads will be cold and especially if this happens just after dark

I'm definitely hoping that it holds off until after I get home from work. It's a small system with a short window but it's plenty cold and the snow ratios will be high.

18Z GFS continues the soaking rain idea but pops a secondary low which gives us backside precip on Sunday of 0.30" that falls as snow.

HAPPY 56TH BIRTHDAY DAVE!!

I hope that you've enjoyed your special day, Wxbuddy!

CVG reached 39, DAY 38 and CMH 36 today.

Good morning all! 35 right now but once the clipper passes, a flake or two possible and then more importantly, temps will drop. Then, we will track our snow chance for tomorrow afternoon as well as cold air. Still looking like rain Fri night into Sat with amounts to be determined. Then we drop back below freezing by Sunday. Do we get a follow up wave for snow or not? Models were looking good a few days ago, but have started to back off. If it happens, this might be the time that models lose it, only to bring it back in the Day 5 period. We shall see! If it's not back by Wed or Thurs, it isn't happening in my mind.

It has definitely been an OV / Southern winter thus far. Hopefully we can keep it going a little bit longer.

The front has passed... down to 30 at CVG now. We will continue to fall into the 20s today.

Good Morning and after the brief warm spell over the weekend we turn colder once again. Rather easy forecast this week with temps on Wednesday morning that should go below zero if the wind dies down. Warm up again at the end of the week before maybe the coldest arctic front of the season gets in here this weekend. At the moment the NAO looks to be positive and this is not allowing blocking so we don't see a storm that slows down enough to form a big storm. This does not mean we won't see any systems though and late Friday and Saturday a good chance of rain as the arctic front gets closer and we are able to bring up some GOM moisture.With the front moving quite fast could be a rain to back end snow. Then we wait and see where the front finally puts on the brakes and then more and likely a storm will form in that area. Again with a pattern change models will have a nice storm one run and the next run nothing and that is common. Almost forgot but the second arctic front on Tuesday could bring a little snow and with temps cold I could see a 15-1 or 20-1 ratio so won't take much to put some snow down plus with the winds picking up in the afternoon it could be one where the flakes are flying and trying to put a little glaze on some roads. So this may be a small amount of snow but the impact is possible even with the small amount of snow. One other item and on Saturday will need to see how quickly the arctic air moves in and if the roads are still wet. Normally we get enough wind to dry the surfaces but timing of the cold air is still something to watch.

CVG reporting 6” snow depth .

New video this morning from Met. Travis:

Interesting setup for sure! Can we get another biggie into the OV? I hope so.....

BG's Video - SnowTalk!

I know it’s colder temps than yesterday but it feels pretty nice out with full sun and almost no winds.

Do you think there will be some type of windchill advisory for next three mornings?

Kennyaker wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2025 11:29 am Do you think there will be some type of windchill advisory for next three mornings?

If we were to see one (Now called cold weather advisories) it would be Tues night and Wed morning. That period will be close to the criteria. The other mornings IMO will fall a bit short. Just know that for temps to bottom out, you want clear skies at night, calm winds, and a good snow pack.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2025 4:33 am Good morning all! 35 right now but once the clipper passes, a flake or two possible and then more importantly, temps will drop. Then, we will track our snow chance for tomorrow afternoon as well as cold air. Still looking like rain Fri night into Sat with amounts to be determined. Then we drop back below freezing by Sunday. Do we get a follow up wave for snow or not? Models were looking good a few days ago, but have started to back off. If it happens, this might be the time that models lose it, only to bring it back in the Day 5 period. We shall see! If it's not back by Wed or Thurs, it isn't happening in my mind.

Some snow showers for my 62nd birthday tomorrow.

I'll be getting my driver's license renewed this afternoon.

Good Afternoon and yes the sun makes it feel sort of nice outside and Tuesday not so much as we look to have a band of snow flying around and watch it streak across the roadways with the wind. Not sure if we get a wind chill/cold whatever they call it but it will feel quite cold. The afternoon models are up and running and so far the gfs and cmc and again similar at the start but change up later in the period. The gfs imo way to fast with the arctic front so throwing that models out. The CMC and we laugh but it does well in this time period in terms of the pattern. I love what it shows from the weekend on forward and again will it be exactly as it shows an no but the pattern it is really doing a great job. Watch the Euro this afternoon and see if we see a trend of that model that is similar to the CMC.

I agree Tim on throwing the OP GFS out. Any model that shows a snow storm in Florida should automatically be tossed. CMC as you said Tim is still a little too far south for us this coming Sunday into next week, but it is certainly a more realistic solution. Again, it is a wait and see game but we will need to see how much of a bully the cold air is behind the rain we get for this coming Fri into Sat morning. Once we get that figured out, then we should see where the front stalls with regards to that secondary follow up wave. GEFS low pressure tracks range from an Apps runner into West Virginia to a slider thru the SE US. None of them give FL a snow storm so we know that's BS to begin with.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2025 12:06 pm I agree Tim on throwing the OP GFS out. Any model that shows a snow storm in Florida should automatically be tossed. CMC as you said Tim is still a little too far south for us this coming Sunday into next week, but it is certainly a more realistic solution. Again, it is a wait and see game but we will need to see how much of a bully the cold air is behind the rain we get for this coming Fri into Sat morning. Once we get that figured out, then we should see where the front stalls with regards to that secondary follow up wave. GEFS low pressure tracks range from an Apps runner into West Virginia to a slider thru the SE US. None of them give FL a snow storm so we know that's BS to begin with.

Les one of the main items I will be watching is the strong high out west. The CMC has this further west than the GFS which in turn allows a better flow from the GOM next week. If that high is further east no doubt this hurts are chances for a decent system. If the high is further west then I believe chances go up. Again just looking at the pattern and really not a specific storm.