Absolute Vorticity

I think this is BG's video for today even though the date is wrong.

Folks... in addition to the OP Euro going to 360 hours now on the 0Z and 12z runs, the off hour runs, 6Z and 18Z, go out to 144 hours now instead of 90. This is so wonderful and a good time of year for the changes!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 6:31 am Yes , COD has the upgrade EU Hres. Hoping TTs does so soon , it’s the easiest one if you’re using an iPhone

6Z went to 144 on TT, so see if 12Z goes to 360.

Clouds are beginning to increase ahead of our next system. I love seeing that November gray sky look! Dry air should allow for rush hour to be dry but not long after that, the atmosphere should be able to saturate so that by this evening, rain should overspread the area. Look for a wet night and Thurs AM rush hour tomorrow tapering to drizzle as the day goes on. A classic drizzly, gray mid November day on tap for tomorrow. I love it! Beats this drought we have been in that is for sure.

12Z GFS is running so let's see what it shows for next week / next weekend in terms of "fun and games." We will need to wait most likely until sometime next week before we can get a better handle on things. Sara has not developed yet down in the tropics, but should be doing so here soon. The teleconnections (as BG's video showed) are beginning to line up with a -AO -NAO -EPO +PNA combination.

Les I am just waiting for that day when its windy,38 degrees and rainy. This is normally a sign that some decent weather for us snow lovers is getting closer.

12Z GFS keeps Sara much weaker on this run and there is no interaction with the trough and Sara. So we get a cold frontal passage, wind, temp drop and a few flurries as the upper level energy swings thru. This would be towards the end of next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 11:34 am 12Z GFS keeps Sara much weaker on this run and there is no interaction with the trough and Sara. So we get a cold frontal passage, wind, temp drop and a few flurries as the upper level energy swings thru. This would be towards the end of next week.

Les I keep having a hard time with these tropical systems making it to the mainland. Just should add some tropical moisture and this would probably be in Florida and the southeast later next week. The wind sheer could be stronger especially if the strong cold front early next week is faster and that is a problem along with the high over the weekend over Florida and how strong will also be a factor. So yes I do believe a hurricane will form because the waters south of Cuba are still very warm and a strong high underneath is good for systems to develop. The problem is once it starts to move then some hostile conditions become more likely.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 11:53 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 11:34 am 12Z GFS keeps Sara much weaker on this run and there is no interaction with the trough and Sara. So we get a cold frontal passage, wind, temp drop and a few flurries as the upper level energy swings thru. This would be towards the end of next week.

Les I keep having a hard time with these tropical systems making it to the mainland. Just should add some tropical moisture and this would probably be in Florida and the southeast later next week. The wind sheer could be stronger especially if the strong cold front early next week is faster and that is a problem along with the high over the weekend over Florida and how strong will also be a factor. So yes I do believe a hurricane will form because the waters south of Cuba are still very warm and a strong high underneath is good for systems to develop. The problem is once it starts to move then some hostile conditions become more likely.

Good post Tim and you may very well be right. It'll depend on how strong Sara does get with regards to its track, timing, and interaction (if any) with our incoming trough, We have to get that right before we can determine any systems after that, and the overall duration of the colder pattern.

The Canadian has a clipper diving down at the end of it's run on the 23rd. Many changes, of course, yet to come from this and other models, but nice to see this time of year nonetheless.

dce wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:25 pm The Canadian has a clipper diving down at the end of it's run on the 23rd. Many changes, of course, yet to come from this and other models, but nice to see this time of year nonetheless.

Clippers used to be our bread and butter for a lot of winters many many years ago. That pattern has disappeared. Literally. I'd sure love to see a clipper pattern emerge again in December or January. Wouldn't that be something!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:31 pm

dce wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:25 pm The Canadian has a clipper diving down at the end of it's run on the 23rd. Many changes, of course, yet to come from this and other models, but nice to see this time of year nonetheless.

Clippers used to be our bread and butter for a lot of winters many many years ago. That pattern has disappeared. Literally. I'd sure love to see a clipper pattern emerge again in December or January. Wouldn't that be something!

Les you know my winter forecast this season is high on the clippers with a few having a chance to get totals over 3 inches on a couple of systems. The pattern imo sets up for the clippers plus a milder central and southern plains which adds some warmth trying to push in from the southwest as these small lows dip out of southern Canada and the northern plains

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:31 pm

dce wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:25 pm The Canadian has a clipper diving down at the end of it's run on the 23rd. Many changes, of course, yet to come from this and other models, but nice to see this time of year nonetheless.

Clippers used to be our bread and butter for a lot of winters many many years ago. That pattern has disappeared. Literally. I'd sure love to see a clipper pattern emerge again in December or January. Wouldn't that be something!

No doubt. 70's, 80's , and 90's were filled with clippers.

Tim / Doug... Who can forget Feb of 2010? That was Clipper Mania!

Better news for Fl with 12z suite. Showing 99L moving deeper into the Yucatán, so a good deal of weakening results . The ridge to its north is a bit stronger this run helping the push into the Yucatán

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 1:06 pm Tim / Doug... Who can forget Feb of 2010? That was Clipper Mania!

Ahhh yeah. We never forget Feb 2010. Three clippers on steroids back to back to back.

Looks like the upgraded Euro wants to take a more formidable system into FL and we get a nice shot of cold air with first flakes by Day 10 or so with a nice bowling ball of energy (upper trough swinging thru). 12Z Euro AI still has the phasing idea and we get our 1st accumulation of the season (light side). EPS has some partial phasing as well. I think it is a low chance for these higher end solutions but not zero. What Bgoney posted earlier is still pretty much the model consensus at this time. GFS Ensemble / GFS / CMC all keep Sara weaker as mentioned earlier, so no interaction. Less in the way of wintry weather for us, but I do think first flakes are on the table late in our 10 Day forecast. I will not forecast any accumulations of course at this time. You would want the event to be at night this time of year since this is not true arctic air. It is just cold enough for snow, surfaces will be warm still. Anyway at night and a heavy rate then you could certainly put down a light covering on grassy areas / car tops, decks, etc. We'll see. Don't want to get carried away.

I am however very much interested in tracking this pattern coming up and see how long it lasts. I am wondering if we'll get a clue about the upcoming winter?

Rain is overspreading the I-65 corridor in IN and soon it will be here too. High of 57 at CVG today, 59 here.

18Z GFS brings Sara into FL as a weak TS while the primary low over Wisc winds up. The 500 MB Low then closes while Sara slips underneath it. Doesn't get a full phase, A timing issue and intensity issue too. A stronger Sara would help more with the phasing process IMO. A weaker Sara would decrease that chance.

Did someone say flakes? I see them every day. Oh wait, we are talking snowflakes. Closely watching the possibility of the first flakes. Told a couple people already that some may be flying. They think I'm nuts. Just between us, I am nuts. lol

For what it's worth Bam and most of their anologs are going all in on a very warm winter and wetter than normal winter. This is just what I've been waiting for. Everyone going for a warmer winter. Even JB. Now for a little reverse psychology!

Good Evening and a nice evening to hear the rain on the roof. Really not much to add as we continue to be quite busy and this seems to continue next week. Do we get into a weak La Nina or does it really matter much. No changing the winter forecast as precip still looks nice for us but temps will be a harder one to figure out this early in the season. Yes mild periods at times and that seems normal for most winters but will we be able to have enough blocking and in the correct spots to bring down several shots of cold air and I do though expecting more of the cold heading into the northeast. Still believe we will be on that western boundary for some of the cold shots even though later next we look to be right in the center of the cold air mass. Can we get snow and sure but I agree with Les as the pavement temps should still be quite warm but if it falls hard enough with a snow shower dusting on grass is possible but that is still over a week away. Heading to Hilton Head on Sunday and Monday-Wednesday looks like temps in the 70's an nice weather. Thursday may be a problem but not sold yet but returning on Friday its going to feel that much colder after enjoying the warmth most of the week.

Good morning all and boy oh boy, did I under forecast this one? 0.97" as of 4am at CVG so well over an inch now by the time I post this. It will be a slow drive into work this morning so take it easy out there! No changes to the short term and medium range forecast. Dry Fri - Weekend then our next chance is Mon night thru about Wed of next week. Then.... we turn cooler and see what happens first flakes wise after that. My current thinking is for first flakes by next weekend with highs in the 30s and 40s for the region and lows in the 20s. That is more winter like!

Updated totals:

CVG - 1.16"
Boone co mesonet - 1.14"

Judging by this....

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

The PDO bottomed out close to -4 and has started rising since. -1.71 as of Nov 12th. Keep on rising baby! This is good news if it were to continue in my opinion. You can see the PDO daily index by clicking on the link and then selecting the 2nd graphic on the right hand side of the page.

Oceanic SST's continue to cool as well esp around Japan which has been boiling the last few years. I'm really liking what is transpiring here folks! Let's see how our new blocking pattern develops and how long it lasts. Like I said before, the late November pattern can certainly hold clues as to what the upcoming winter may hold.

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

Also of note, the Euro Weeklies were showing well above avg temps. They continue to cool with each new run and actually show slightly below normal temps now going into December. We have lots to keep an eye on here folks and much to be excited about should these trends continue.

Good Morning Les. Yes things are looking better and especially around Japan. Over the past few years the pacific tropics have been way down in terms of storms but this year back to at least normal. To me this was one reason the waters around Japan remained warm almost all year round. Hopefully with a change to a so called more normal tropical pacific season this will continue to cool those waters more this winter.

Nice dose of rain overnight and should be out of here locally in a few hours though you can still have drizzle much of the day. We remain busy going into next week as a strong cold front mid-week will bring some below normal temps for a change. Yes its cold enough to bring at least the chance of a few snow showers and that will be nice to see before Thanksgiving.