Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 8:44 am You guys got it covered. Basically dry east of the Rockies for meaningful rain the rest of the month except possibly the last couple days. Southern Canada remains above normal temps for rest of month with little snow accumulations, along with most of the rest of lower 48 , excluding the west. November needs some major changes

No doubt! For now, I don't see any major changes either for the 1st half of the month. Hopefully the second half does offer up those changes.

FWIW, I did see some updated MJO forecasts from the various models. We go from Phase 6, into Phase 7 by early November. Some models then kill off the MJO wave before it can get into Phase 8 as it dies into the circle of death. Gee, where have we seen this movie before? Other models do get it into Phase 8 as the model run ends. So the second half of November should turn colder / stormier if it gets into Phase 8. If it doesn't and the wave dies off in Phase 7, I think we'll get some much needed rain, but we would still remain on the mild side. Ugh.... the MJO has not been kind to us and I hate having to rely on it, but this is all I can come up with right now. I'm on the customer side so I can't post the model images, but you can go here to see them for yourself.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 9:01 am FWIW, I did see some updated MJO forecasts from the various models. We go from Phase 6, into Phase 7 by early November. Some models then kill off the MJO wave before it can get into Phase 8 as it dies into the circle of death. Gee, where have we seen this movie before? Other models do get it into Phase 8 as the model run ends. So the second half of November should turn colder / stormier if it gets into Phase 8. If it doesn't and the wave dies off in Phase 7, I think we'll get some much needed rain, but we would still remain on the mild side. Ugh.... the MJO has not been kind to us and I hate having to rely on it, but this is all I can come up with right now. I'm on the customer side so I can't post the model images, but you can go here to see them for yourself.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

Les I have no problem in November being mild and it usually is the case with a La Nina nearing. Matter of fact much of the USA should be milder this fall if the La NIna does what it has done in the past. The build up of cold and snow in Northern and Central Canada first and the southern half in the first week or so of November. Then after that we will watch the mjo and again models tend to move things to fast imo so not expecting any winter weather around here until the last few days of November and that is normal around here. Hopefully it does turn stormier next month and please just rain as we really don't need any severe weather. So in 2023 and 2024 the country as a whole has been slightly drier than normal but I have seen worse and expect Mother Nature will take care of that. We must remember over the past decade the average annual rainfall has gone up quite a bit so was it the case that we had to much rain for several years and another balancing act. When I look at long term usually talking at least 5 years and sometimes more than 10. I just look at it as a bystander and not a person whose job needs the rainfall. I do understand those folks and I understand they need it soon but the overall picture is not as bleak imo. The drought monitor is very messy to say the least and does not imo give the full story.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 9:34 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 9:01 am FWIW, I did see some updated MJO forecasts from the various models. We go from Phase 6, into Phase 7 by early November. Some models then kill off the MJO wave before it can get into Phase 8 as it dies into the circle of death. Gee, where have we seen this movie before? Other models do get it into Phase 8 as the model run ends. So the second half of November should turn colder / stormier if it gets into Phase 8. If it doesn't and the wave dies off in Phase 7, I think we'll get some much needed rain, but we would still remain on the mild side. Ugh.... the MJO has not been kind to us and I hate having to rely on it, but this is all I can come up with right now. I'm on the customer side so I can't post the model images, but you can go here to see them for yourself.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

Les I have no problem in November being mild and it usually is the case with a La Nina nearing. Matter of fact much of the USA should be milder this fall if the La NIna does what it has done in the past. The build up of cold and snow in Northern and Central Canada first and the southern half in the first week or so of November. Then after that we will watch the mjo and again models tend to move things to fast imo so not expecting any winter weather around here until the last few days of November and that is normal around here. Hopefully it does turn stormier next month and please just rain as we really don't need any severe weather. So in 2023 and 2024 the country as a whole has been slightly drier than normal but I have seen worse and expect Mother Nature will take care of that. We must remember over the past decade the average annual rainfall has gone up quite a bit so was it the case that we had to much rain for several years and another balancing act. When I look at long term usually talking at least 5 years and sometimes more than 10. I just look at it as a bystander and not a person whose job needs the rainfall. I do understand those folks and I understand they need it soon but the overall picture is not as bleak imo. The drought monitor is very messy to say the least and does not imo give the full story.

Great post Tim! Avg snowfall has also gone up surprisingly despite the milder winters we have been having as of late. I think we share the same ideas here overall which is good. We know what needs to happen as we have all been hashing it out pretty good on our forum over the last few days., You, Bgoney, and myself have all brought up great points about what we need to see happen. It's just a matter of tracking these things to see what happens. We've done the homework and the research and we know why things are happening the way things have been happening. We know what needs to occur to get out of this dreadful pattern. As always, it starts with the Pacific so we will need to continue keeping an eye on the La Nina, EPO, WPO, and MJO phases and the go from there. We must remember that it takes a while for a drought to occur and it'll take a while to get out of it.

Getting above average or below average yearly qpf loses significance when you can have a severe flooding event, a severe drought event and even both a severe flooding and severe drought event in that same below or above average year, in the same location. When either is occurring at that moment and effects are ongoing , averages mean nothing. Of course , eventually the rains come or the dryness comes but what degree of damage is done until then is what matters

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 10:48 am Getting above average or below average yearly qpf loses significance when you can have a severe flooding event, a severe drought event and even both a severe flooding and severe drought event in that same below or above average year. When either is occurring at that moment and effects are ongoing , averages mean nothing. Of course , eventually the rains come or the dryness comes but what degree of damage is done until then is what matters

The averages do skew things for sure. Great point!!! As of right now, CVG is only down 2.30" for the year. If you look at just that number only, then you are definitely mislead. You would think, how can we be in a drought? Well, to your point, look all around. The signs have been there for months. Early leaf drop, brown needles on some evergreens, burned out lawns, etc. Only recently thanks to Helene that some lawns have been bouncing back. That was a short term solution not a long term one. Again, a great point Bgoney!!!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 10:48 am Getting above average or below average yearly qpf loses significance when you can have a severe flooding event, a severe drought event and even both a severe flooding and severe drought event in that same below or above average year, in the same location. When either is occurring at that moment and effects are ongoing , averages mean nothing. Of course , eventually the rains come or the dryness comes but what degree of damage is done until then is what matters

Great Post and this has been going on since the inception of time. We just have this thing called the media and it gets out control and they want to say we have never seen anything like this before and its just not the truth. Do you want a drought go back to the mid 1930's and ask those folks about a drought and the hot summers. There are many other examples but that one at least some folks have decent info on. The media likes to talk about pollution and how its destroying the earth and its not the best thing in the world but I can remember the 1960's and 1970's and locally the pollution was so much worse. We have places like China who finally decided to get into the modern world and look at the pollution they are throwing out there. Hopefully in time they will have better systems to help curb the pollution.

Bottom out at 38° today

looking ahead at Halloween and at the beginning of November definitely a storm system is expected to push through, but it’s too far to get any exact ideas

Jacob755 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 11:16 am Bottom out at 38° today

looking ahead at Halloween and at the beginning of November definitely a storm system is expected to push through, but it’s too far to get any exact ideas

I agree Jacob. The only details that I keep seeing is that we get a front in here, it stalls, then we get one perhaps 2 low pressures to ride up along the front. Timing, severe wx, back side snow showers, any heavy rainfall, etc. etc. is too early to call as you mentioned. The degree of moisture return that we get from the Gulf IMO is in question thanks to the ongoing drought.

Since we’ve had a frost, can we officially call the upcoming warm spell Native American Summer?

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 12:03 pm Since we’ve had a frost, can we officially call the upcoming warm spell Native American Summer?

I haven't been at or below freezing yet IMBY so I guess that depends on location.

This is still fantasy range, but the 12Z GFS has a nice baroclinic zone to our NW with a front in the vicinity. Multiple lows ride along the boundary so that means multiple rain chances for us esp in early November. Fingers crossed that we get a set up like that. That's a good way to help lessen the drought without high winds and severe wx.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 11:52 am

Jacob755 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 11:16 am Bottom out at 38° today

looking ahead at Halloween and at the beginning of November definitely a storm system is expected to push through, but it’s too far to get any exact ideas

I agree Jacob. The only details that I keep seeing is that we get a front in here, it stalls, then we get one perhaps 2 low pressures to ride up along the front. Timing, severe wx, back side snow showers, any heavy rainfall, etc. etc. is too early to call as you mentioned. The degree of moisture return that we get from the Gulf IMO is in question thanks to the ongoing drought.

Yeah that’s really the only Weather system I’ve been watching

67 here today, 66 as of 4pm at CVG. Enjoy the delightful Rocktober weekend folks!

Per the boys - the Frost / Freeze program is over until spring.

After coordinating with the UK Ag Dept, it has been determined that the growing season has ended across the region. As a result, NWS Wilmington will not be issuing any additional Frost/Freeze Headlines for this season.

CVG got to 67, DAY 68 and CMH 69 today.

Your Alaska fix for the day. By product of the 500mb pattern (-PDO) we’ve been stuck in. From NOAA Alaska





Weather warnings have been hoisted for Alaska's west coast as well as the central and northwestern interior, as a major storm is set to develop over Russia's Kamchatka peninsula tomorrow and then move northeastward, bringing impacts to Alaska starting on Sunday. Potentially one of the strongest on record for the time of year over far eastern Russia.

The storm is developing along a frontal boundary to the north of Japan, as cold air pushes east from Siberia and encounters very warm conditions over the northwestern Pacific. It's been notably cold in recent days in eastern Siberia, with the notoriously cold town of Verkhoyansk dropping below -30°C (-22°F) the last three nights.

Here's a look at projected MSLP and precipitation from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon, according to the leading ECMWF model.
The expected minimum MSLP of 957mb over far eastern Russia on Sunday afternoon would be a record low for October in that inland location, although sub-950mb MSLP has occurred before over the Gulf of Anadyr (based on ERA5 data)
NOAA: "It doesn`t matter how you slice it, this storm will have some extreme values associated with it from a climatological standpoint, as the upper jet streak of 180 knots, the precipitable water values near record levels for this time of year, and total precip amounts (for this time of year) are pretty much off the charts in terms of anomaly/return intervals."

Snowfall is expected to be extreme for western and south-central Brooks Range locations.

The upper-level forecast charts show the very powerful jet stream that will move across western and northern Alaska: 500mb charts highlight the extreme contrast between warmth and ridging to the south, and the cold trough to the northwest.

End of the month/start of November rain amounts depend on how far east the western trough can advance into the strong eastern ridge. At this early stage it’s up in the air. Nice qpf showing up wherever the two have their battle. Could be to our west or more into the OV.

Good morning all! The Alaskan storm is going to be a slow mover too! Heavy snow and some rain too are expected to go along with the wind. Last I saw from NWS Fairbanks for Fairbanks itself was 2-4" of snow late this weekend into Monday then changing to rain. Then back to heavy snow for Mon night and Tues, probably lingering into Wed too with 6-10" of additional accumulation expected., Probably 1-2 feet in the mountains of the Brooks Range is my guess.

For us locally, zzzzzzzzzzzzzz is the name of the game for the next week. We will cool back off into the 60s by the end of the week (probably Thurs / Fri). Rainfall looks sparse until we get towards late this month and into Nov as we have been discussing. Models keep changing the location of the baroclinic zone as Bgoney mentioned. So we'll just have to wait and see where the frontal boundary stalls with regards to who gets the rain and who doesn't to kick off November. Rocktober looking mild for the most part though as far as the rest of the month goes, which we have expected.

Thanks for the update Bgoney on Alaska. We have been following this for a few days and each day the stronger the storm or storms are occurring. Key point they made is frontal boundary north of Japan. Those waters are warm and getting that warm air combined with the normal colder temps that eastern Siberia have this time of year and that can be one strong storm. Hopefully this season we will see the boundary in Japan go further south and also the more storms we can get in that area hopefully we will see some cooling of the ocean waters in that part of the world. That would help us if those waters cool. Sometimes this kind of storm can change the pattern and to early for that prediction. Juneau had snow overnight and that may be their first snow of the season. The pattern across the northern hemisphere is starting to get busy after a slower start except for the tropics near us and time to start following weather around the globe more closely. Going to be some heavy snowfall in the northern regions but will the heaviest be over in Siberia or closer to home in Alaska and Canada. Time will tell but at least we have something to watch over the next couple of weeks. Heading to Wisconsin on Thursday and looks boring with temps in the 50's during the day and upper 20's and low 30's at night. Was hoping for some snow flakes but will need to wait on that this year

Good Morning guys and great posts this morning. No doubt we will end up milder than normal for October but maybe 2 or the high end 3 degrees above normal. Seems like it would be warmer than those numbers but with the dry ground we cool down at night to near normal overnight lows. Rainfall will be below normal unless some big storm hits us at the end of the month. So far this year CVG has recorded 34.45 inches of rain which is a tad below normal but the record lowest for this time of year was in 1901 when only 13.87 inches had fell by this date.

Just got home from Colton's play off game and they got killed 31-0 so their season is over. First round game for Cooper's Team is early tomorrow morning. Not going to that one since we'd have to leave here at 7 lol I'll be at mass anyway.

72 right now at CVG and it feels warmer then that. No wind and the sun is still pretty hot IMO sitting in those stands.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2024 4:00 pm Just got home from Colton's play off game and they got killed 31-0 so their season is over. First round game for Cooper's Team is early tomorrow morning. Not going to that one since we'd have to leave here at 7 lol I'll be at mass anyway.

72 right now at CVG and it feels warmer then that. No wind and the sun is still pretty hot IMO sitting in those stands.

Sorry about Colton and his team getting tromped! I hope he gets a big haul for so at least that way he can get a satisfactory sugar high to try to help him feel better but at the same time not a big tummy ache!

Hopefully Cooper and Team can do well!

Les, Bgoney or Tim,

Do you have any idea what the wx models / ensembles are showing in general re the week of Halloween? I know its two weeks away but the community neighborhood where my folks and I reside are having a Bocce ball tournament playoff event that week and so am wondering what the outlook may be for that period?

Thank you,
Eric

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2024 4:27 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2024 4:00 pm Just got home from Colton's play off game and they got killed 31-0 so their season is over. First round game for Cooper's Team is early tomorrow morning. Not going to that one since we'd have to leave here at 7 lol I'll be at mass anyway.

72 right now at CVG and it feels warmer then that. No wind and the sun is still pretty hot IMO sitting in those stands.

Sorry about Colton and his team getting tromped! I hope he gets a big haul for so at least that way he can get a satisfactory sugar high to try to help him feel better but at the same time not a big tummy ache!

Hopefully Cooper and Team can do well!

Coop loves his candy so he's the one you have to worry about getting a stomach ache lol