Absolute Vorticity

----

I know most everyone knows this by know with three straight summer/fall droughts , But with chances of rain the next ext few days it’s a good idea to water valued trees before hand to soften up the soil underneath and make it more excepting to upcoming rains , hopefully lessening the amount of runoff and getting the moisture as deep as possible . It truly is liquid gold, whatever we can get at this point

Had a T this morning. Not even enough to settle the dust. Sun afternoon on into next week though hopefully is a different story. Expecting an avg of a 1/2" for most thru the period with a few lucky folks perhaps getting an inch plus. Before we get to that... the 90s once again today.

Lucky me I got two rounds this morning and 0.41 inches of rainfall. Again today and Sunday will most likely be isolated showers but hopefully Sunday night through Tuesday most folks get in on several rounds. Rainfall totals will vary of course and my guess a good average through Tuesday will be in that 0.75-1.25 however some folks may get unlucky and stay below the amount while some may no doubt get closer to 2 inches. This time we not only have energy that will be moving in from the west but also a stalled front nearby. This should help in getting a trigger for more widespread rains.
After that we will watch action in the GOM and no doubt some decent moisture but will a system form and help push moisture northward. The middle of the Atlantic once again is having problems in developing anything that could head this way and really that area has been the bust this tropical season.

The first ten days we were around 2.5 degrees below average on temps but the 11th through the 20th we were around 5.5 degrees above normal so we are standing at 3 degrees above normal for the month. We know today and Sunday above normal but what happens for the remainder of the month will determine the final outcome on temps. Again anything 1 degree below normal to 1 degree above normal is considered average in my book. After that then we start talking about slightly below or above and so on and so forth.

We are currently 3.0 degrees above avg for the month at CVG. IMO it's a slam dunk that we will end the month at above avg. Remember, avg's are dropping a little more rapidly now and will continue to do so as Fall rolls on (which starts tomorrow).

This is for you Tim!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2024

AKZ809-220200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0031.000000T0000Z-240922T1200Z/
Central Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake,
and the Dalton Highway from MP 232 to MP 322
224 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to
12 inches.

* WHERE...Central Brooks Range.

* WHEN...Through 4 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will continue through Sunday morning
before tapering off to light snow and flurries. The snow may
be heavy at times, including along the Dalton Highway.
Temperatures will be chilly, with highs in the 20s and low 30s
as well as lows in the teens.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 9:08 am We are currently 3.0 degrees above avg for the month at CVG. IMO it's a slam dunk that we will end the month at above avg. Remember, avg's are dropping a little more rapidly now and will continue to do so as Fall rolls on (which starts tomorrow).

EU Ensembles from a week or two back nailed the temp regime for the month. They had the highest hotter temps mid month especially

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 11:28 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 9:08 am We are currently 3.0 degrees above avg for the month at CVG. IMO it's a slam dunk that we will end the month at above avg. Remember, avg's are dropping a little more rapidly now and will continue to do so as Fall rolls on (which starts tomorrow).

EU Ensembles from a week or two back nailed the temp regime for the month. They had the highest hotter temps mid month especially

Agreed. EU and GEFS both look mild to me thru the first week of October at this time. 70s for highs is normal so we'd need to be in the 60s for highs and 40s for lows for below avg temps, and I don't see that coming anytime soon.

Already 86 at noon since it only got down to 72 for a low , normal is 55. Probably not a record high low , but somewhere in the ballpark

91 so far a CVG today.

94 officially at CVG today, 3 short of the record. 92 here.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 5:22 pm 94 officially at CVG today, 3 short of the record. 92 here.

Just tied for first the record mean temp for September 21. High 94 and low of 72( if we don’t drop below before midnight). Still a top 3 guaranteed . Impressive September heatwave

thats crazy how warm its been for you guys in the OV. here in Pa it has been pretty much seasonal to slightly above. most days have been sunny and highs in upper 70s . still too warm for my liking but the next 2 months are my favorite as far as temps go. was looking at some long range stuff and it appears as we get towards late Sept and early Oct that temps will be below average quite a bit so we will see.

Good morning all! It's time to start tracking some of that liquid gold for later this afternoon thru about Wed of next week. Monday and Tues still look to be the best chances for the area. Good luck to all and may we all see something meaningful out of this since we sure as heck do need it!

Model QPF at CVG

6Z NAM - 0.65" ending 2pm Wed
0Z GFS - 0.79"
0Z Euro - 0.92"
6Z HRRR - NOTHING ending at Mon night at midnight

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 7:00 am Good morning all! It's time to start tracking some of that liquid gold for later this afternoon thru about Wed of next week. Monday and Tues still look to be the best chances for the area. Good luck to all and may we all see something meaningful out of this since we sure as heck do need it!

Model QPF at CVG

6Z NAM - 0.65" ending 2pm Wed
0Z GFS - 0.79"
0Z Euro - 0.92"
6Z HRRR - NOTHING ending at Mon night at midnight

One trend for this time period (Mon-Wed) has been a shrinkage of the widespread regional beneficial rains , Amounts still varying and unchanged , just more hit and miss(regionally)

Good Morning and we welcome fall in just a few minutes. Yesterday I had 0.41 but my brother-n-law just 3 miles up the street not a drop. Still going with 0.75-1.25 through Tuesday and of course some folks lower and some may get close to the 2 inch mark. No more 90's until next May or June. Will this end up in the top ten for driest September and my guess is no but still rather dry though September is normally a dry month. What happens with the tropical moisture in the GOM is interesting and can we get this moisture to come further north. The Euro says yes but the Gfs and Cmc are not bringing it as far north. No doubt the tropics had a rough start but are trying to catch up to some predicted storms but really the mid-Atlantic region is really struggling but closer to the mainland we have seen some storms and plenty of rain along the gulf coast and also NC got hit hard.

Les thanks for the info on Alaska and saw that yesterday morning and yes they are heading into winter as Oct and Nov are normally the snowiest times for northern and central Alaska.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 7:17 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 7:00 am Good morning all! It's time to start tracking some of that liquid gold for later this afternoon thru about Wed of next week. Monday and Tues still look to be the best chances for the area. Good luck to all and may we all see something meaningful out of this since we sure as heck do need it!

Model QPF at CVG

6Z NAM - 0.65" ending 2pm Wed
0Z GFS - 0.79"
0Z Euro - 0.92"
6Z HRRR - NOTHING ending at Mon night at midnight

One trend for this time period (Mon-Wed) has been a shrinkage of the widespread regional beneficial rains , Amounts still varying and unchanged , just more hit and miss(regionally)

We really need the upper low and the hurricane to work together to bring us a nice soaking. Starting to see more and more of the guidance jumping on to that idea versus a swing and a miss to the East. Something has to break our way eventually!

CVG got to 94 and both DAY / CMH 93 yesterday.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 8:30 am Good Morning and we welcome fall in just a few minutes. Yesterday I had 0.41 but my brother-n-law just 3 miles up the street not a drop. Still going with 0.75-1.25 through Tuesday and of course some folks lower and some may get close to the 2 inch mark. No more 90's until next May or June. Will this end up in the top ten for driest September and my guess is no but still rather dry though September is normally a dry month. What happens with the tropical moisture in the GOM is interesting and can we get this moisture to come further north. The Euro says yes but the Gfs and Cmc are not bringing it as far north. No doubt the tropics had a rough start but are trying to catch up to some predicted storms but really the mid-Atlantic region is really struggling but closer to the mainland we have seen some storms and plenty of rain along the gulf coast and also NC got hit hard.

Les thanks for the info on Alaska and saw that yesterday morning and yes they are heading into winter as Oct and Nov are normally the snowiest times for northern and central Alaska.

I thought you'd like that.

0.64" from 1897 is at #10. Based on the models, we should not get a Top Ten dry Sept as you mentioned but being that our luck around CVG has been terrible with regards to rain chances, all the same, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if it happened. Hopefully we can get a 1/2" out of this next event and then, as I mentioned in a reply to Bgoney, that the upper low and hurricane work together to give us all a nice soaking to close out the month.

This Week in Weather from DT, which came out yesterday:

Similar to yesterday’s temps around noon , already have hit 86 at cvg

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 10:18 am This Week in Weather from DT, which came out yesterday:

Ha. Must be getting close to winter to be posting this kind of stuff!

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
152 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

OHZ034-035-042-043-051-221830-
Darke OH-Auglaize OH-Shelby OH-Mercer OH-Miami OH-
152 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SHELBY...NORTHEASTERN
DARKE...SOUTHWESTERN AUGLAIZE...SOUTHEASTERN MERCER AND NORTHERN
MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 152 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Ansonia to near Versailles to Bradford, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea size hail, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sidney, St. Marys, New Bremen, Minster, Versailles, Newport,
Bradford, Anna, Fort Loramie, Botkins, New Knoxville, Hardin,
Webster, Russia, Gettysburg, Port Jefferson, Osgood, Chickasaw,
Burkettsville, and North Star.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 86 and 109.

&&

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

$$

Novak

So VERY THANKFUL to see the liquid gold again!!