Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:05 am Nice video by Brian. Les he mentioned what you have said about the pattern always returning to what we have seen the past month and that is shots of cooler air from the northern plains. If that is the case then rain chances are not great. Going to see how the tropics play out and we know they can slow the pattern down. He does mentioned the heat returning and I agree but how hot and the main question is how humid. Many times once you hit later August and September you can no doubt get 90's but many times its where the dew points stay in the low and maybe mid 60's. So yes but not quite the stiffening heat you sometimes get in summer. Best time to really get the heat and humidity this time of year is a day or two ahead of a cold front or the tropics get very active and some strong ridging can form over us. At the moment only the fronts show that chance.

Dews should stay in the mid 60s so a bit sticky for sure IMO but not tropical, unless the tropics fire up and we get as Gulf system to move onshore of course.

Nearly a perfect circle of high pressure over Texas

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:37 am Nearly a perfect circle of high pressure over Texas

For sure! We need a tropical system or something to help break up that heat ridge. Texas and Oklahoma will continue baking for a while.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:37 am Nearly a perfect circle of high pressure over Texas

For sure! We need a tropical system or something to help break up that heat ridge. Texas and Oklahoma will continue baking for a while.

Next 7-10 days the tropics are about as dead as I’ve seen for this time of year

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 12:41 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:37 am Nearly a perfect circle of high pressure over Texas

For sure! We need a tropical system or something to help break up that heat ridge. Texas and Oklahoma will continue baking for a while.

Next 7-10 days the tropics are about as dead as I’ve seen for this time of year

I agree. They should pick back up once we hit September (unless the models are wrong of course).

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 12:41 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:37 am Nearly a perfect circle of high pressure over Texas

For sure! We need a tropical system or something to help break up that heat ridge. Texas and Oklahoma will continue baking for a while.

Next 7-10 days the tropics are about as dead as I’ve seen for this time of year

I agree 100p/c about the tropics. Met's may have trouble meeting their so called quota for named storms this year. We are in the last 3rd of August and so far not many storms. I agree that the peak is still ahead of us but my guess some national met's may be lowering their totals in the next week or so. Without the tropical influence cold front can make it through our area in the next 6 weeks. My guess the tropics will pick up but if you take the Atlantic and Pacific we are talking about a very slow year in terms of storms. La Nina having a hard time going which imo is a good thing and if we do get into that phase hopefully its more towards late fall or early winter

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 1:10 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 12:41 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:37 am Nearly a perfect circle of high pressure over Texas

For sure! We need a tropical system or something to help break up that heat ridge. Texas and Oklahoma will continue baking for a while.

Next 7-10 days the tropics are about as dead as I’ve seen for this time of year

I agree 100p/c about the tropics. Met's may have trouble meeting their so called quota for named storms this year. We are in the last 3rd of August and so far not many storms. I agree that the peak is still ahead of us but my guess some national met's may be lowering their totals in the next week or so. Without the tropical influence cold front can make it through our area in the next 6 weeks. My guess the tropics will pick up but if you take the Atlantic and Pacific we are talking about a very slow year in terms of storms. La Nina having a hard time going which imo is a good thing and if we do get into that phase hopefully its more towards late fall or early winter

The Bermuda high is a 100 lbs. weakling atm. When you see a cold front reaching the GOM and then stalling for a week this time of year , Ridging is both weak and out of place

Dew is down to 47 now at CVG. Temp is only at 70. Not a record cold high or anything for today but certainly well below avg for August. Besides the lack of rain, this air mass is pretty awesome for the time of year. It'll make those 90s feel that much worse when they return.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 1:19 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 1:10 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 12:41 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:37 am Nearly a perfect circle of high pressure over Texas

For sure! We need a tropical system or something to help break up that heat ridge. Texas and Oklahoma will continue baking for a while.

Next 7-10 days the tropics are about as dead as I’ve seen for this time of year

I agree 100p/c about the tropics. Met's may have trouble meeting their so called quota for named storms this year. We are in the last 3rd of August and so far not many storms. I agree that the peak is still ahead of us but my guess some national met's may be lowering their totals in the next week or so. Without the tropical influence cold front can make it through our area in the next 6 weeks. My guess the tropics will pick up but if you take the Atlantic and Pacific we are talking about a very slow year in terms of storms. La Nina having a hard time going which imo is a good thing and if we do get into that phase hopefully its more towards late fall or early winter

The Bermuda high is a 100 lbs. weakling atm. When you see a cold front reaching the GOM and then stalling for a week this time of year , Ridging is both weak and out of place

This has been the case most of this summer. Sure the high has made several attempts to set up shop over the southeast and except for a period in June has failed. The ridge out west is a different story and one that has been very strong and the reason the west has been very warm this summer and the monsoon season hard to take off. That ridge in the southcentral states is the one that had been out further west and no doubt is giving those folks a nice taste of true summer and some of that will try and push its way once again like last week into our area. The good thing is its not combining with the Bermuda High which does happen sometimes in summer and that is when you really get a true heat wave for much of the USA. Knowing our luck the southeast ridge will decide to wake up this winter and spoil our snow chances lol.

73 at CVG today. 73 here also. Gorgeous! I wish it could be like this all summer lol Going to grill some chili dogs for dinner here shortly. It's so nice out! Mowed yesterday and watered the plants today. Everything minus the lawn is doing good!

As far as future rain chances go, 12Z GFS looks good for Tues / Tues night of next week then we get another dry spell. The Euro this afternoon has a little action on Wednesday of next week.

CVG reached 73, DAY 72 and CMH 74 today.

Good morning all! Lows have dropped into the 40s in some areas. Due to NE winds and UHI, CVG is holding in the 50s. 53 currently IMBY for the same reasons. A couple more beauties on the way before the heat and humidity begin to make a comeback to the area.

For next week, the GFS looks active from Tues on with a slow moving frontal boundary. The Euro is a bit different showing a line of convection Tues night / Wed. Then a stronger front by the end of the week. Both models have a cool down going into Labor Day weekend. Euro would mean more 90s then the GFS prior to the cooler transition as far as temps go.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 21, 2024 4:32 am Good morning all! Lows have dropped into the 40s in some areas. Due to NE winds and UHI, CVG is holding in the 50s. 53 currently IMBY for the same reasons. A couple more beauties on the way before the heat and humidity begin to make a comeback to the area.

For next week, the GFS looks active from Tues on with a slow moving frontal boundary. The Euro is a bit different showing a line of convection Tues night / Wed. Then a stronger front by the end of the week. Both models have a cool down going into Labor Day weekend. Euro would mean more 90s then the GFS prior to the cooler transition as far as temps go.

Good Morning Les and the forecast looks dead on. Hopefully the gfs pans out to give us more chances for rain next but we will be close to September and never easy to get widespread rains unless you have a front that takes several days to move through or a tropical system which in that case none to be found. Been a interesting tropical system across the northern hemisphere this summer and yes we do expect to have an uptick but its taking time. Got in late last night and saw Joe Bonamassa in the Dayton area and heading out this morning to play in a golf outing and the weather almost perfect

Good morning Tim! Good luck with the golf game today! Glad to see you're enjoying the nice weather.

Broke out the hoodie early this morning. I’ll have to check ILNs records page to see if this is the earliest to do so.

53 at CVG this morning. 48 at LUK, ILN and HAO this morning.

72 / 47 at CVG as of 2pm.... magnificent!

12Z GFS has a decent chance for rain Tues night into Wed of next week then ramps up again towards Labor Day weekend and beyond.

12Z Euro has a small chance Tues morning of next week for rain then better chances arrive for Labor Day weekend.

A gorgeous 75 here and at CVG today,

CVG got to 76, DAY 73 and CMH 75 today.

Good morning all! 58 as of 4am at CVG and I have a lovely 52 here. My coolest morning of the week for sure. Not much change in the short term. Today is the last very nice day with temps around 80 or so. Then the mid 80s Fri, upper 80s to near 90 Sat and in the lower 90s Sunday thru perhaps Tues or Wed of next week. By Tues / Wed of next week, the 90s will be cloud / t-storm dependent of course. I am going with 93 for a max at CVG but I have seen some models go as high as 95 or 96. As usual, we'll see about that.

As far as rain chances go, the overnight GFS has chances Tues morning and Wed morning then again by Fri into Sat. The Euro is mainly dry now over the next 10 days and it has really backed off on the chances that it once showed. The model was always drier then the GFS but this is the driest run yet. IMO the Euro has been too hot and dry this summer and I am leaning more towards the GFS personally.

Good Morning Les. Forecast looks great and really the only thing I will add and its the non-development of any tropical systems. I understand it can get quite busy in September but getting to some of those higher numbers that were forecast could be hard to reach. Without any systems in the Atlantic or the GOM this will allow cold fronts in the northern plains to move into our area in about a week or so. We know the tropics can slow things down but without these you can see several cold fronts in September. Does this mean an early fall and again to early but that would be a nice change of pace compared to the last several years

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2024 6:16 am Good Morning Les. Forecast looks great and really the only thing I will add and its the non-development of any tropical systems. I understand it can get quite busy in September but getting to some of those higher numbers that were forecast could be hard to reach. Without any systems in the Atlantic or the GOM this will allow cold fronts in the northern plains to move into our area in about a week or so. We know the tropics can slow things down but without these you can see several cold fronts in September. Does this mean an early fall and again to early but that would be a nice change of pace compared to the last several years

Some of the models that go out for like a month, show a trough coming for Labor Day weekend then another one coming in after that. This means that if correct, could the upcoming heat be the last of the season? I'm not willing to go out on a limb just yet. If the tropics remain quiet then yes. If they wake up, as I am expecting them to, then we could easily get one more bout of the 90s for September. It's just a little too early for me to be confident on either solution. One thing that is for certain is that so far, this La Nina has not been behaving like your typical Nina. Whether or not that means a warm or cool Fall remains to be seen. If we can keep this pattern going, then Fall would definitely come early. Mother Nature is so hard to predict as everyone knows, but that's why we are here to talk about it, put our heads together and hopefully get it right as best as we can.

Feels glorious outside!!!!! Got the lawn mowed last night, have some weed trimming to do to complete it today, but wow. Love this time of the year!