Absolute Vorticity

It's too bad that the better CAPE and shear are located towards the SW of our local area, and that's why the MCS has gone in that direction and has crapped out on the front end. PWATS out that way are over 2" also. The best chance for us still looks to be tonight into early Wed. However, I wouldn't' rule out additional development today if the current MCS can leave a boundary in its wake. Once the sun comes up, we can look at the visible satellite to see how expansive the current cloud shield is.

Good Morning and these MCS's love to find the heat and that is why many dive southward once in full force. Saw the development late yesterday and the models were to far north so I thought the rains may be further south but they dived even further than I thought. Hopefully overnight into early Wednesday we get hit with some decent rains.

The models will change totals for different locations over the next 24-36 hours as they get more info on these systems. The Nam is the lowest and really has been terrible over the past several days so hopefully they don't hit this on correctly. Still believe 1-2 inches is a good call with some folks getting less and if you are the lucky one with several hours of training you can get more than 2 inches.

Models almost never handle MCS's well. It's going to be a wait and see game. I think we'll see scattered activity pop up later today but the best chance IMO will be overnight tonight into Wed morning as I expect an MCS to impact our forecast area. Then probably one more line with the cold frontal passage late in the day on Wed into Wed evening. Then we are good to go until next week. The extended range continues to look active for the rest of July and as we kick off August.

If we’ve had one of those complexes to hit our area (Kday/kcmh/cvg) in the last 5 years ( or more) I’d be shocked to know

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:30 am Models almost never handle MCS's well. It's going to be a wait and see game. I think we'll see scattered activity pop up later today but the best chance IMO will be overnight tonight into Wed morning as I expect an MCS to impact our forecast area. Then probably one more line with the cold frontal passage late in the day on Wed into Wed evening. Then we are good to go until next week. The extended range continues to look active for the rest of July and as we kick off August.

Good Morning Les and you are correct the models have a bad time with these systems and usually its not until they have matured that the models get it correct. Nice to see the active weather through the end of the month and hopefully we can just get lucky and hit a few nice rounds of storms during this period. I had .50 on Sunday but everything is still brown but played golf in park hills and you can tell they have done better in terms of rainfall has many yards were a nice color of green.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:38 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:30 am Models almost never handle MCS's well. It's going to be a wait and see game. I think we'll see scattered activity pop up later today but the best chance IMO will be overnight tonight into Wed morning as I expect an MCS to impact our forecast area. Then probably one more line with the cold frontal passage late in the day on Wed into Wed evening. Then we are good to go until next week. The extended range continues to look active for the rest of July and as we kick off August.

Good Morning Les and you are correct the models have a bad time with these systems and usually its not until they have matured that the models get it correct. Nice to see the active weather through the end of the month and hopefully we can just get lucky and hit a few nice rounds of storms during this period. I had .50 on Sunday but everything is still brown but played golf in park hills and you can tell they have done better in terms of rainfall has many yards were a nice color of green.

Good morning Tim! My yard is slowly recovering so if we can get another 0.50 to 1" over the next 2 days then, by the way things are looking in the extended range, we can almost say good bye to the drought at least in certain areas anyway. We do need a big MCS though to help out more locations. To Bgoney's point, it has been a while since that has happened for our local area. We tend to get more isolated to scattered convection instead of something being more area wide. We'll see how it all unfolds as usual.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:31 am If we’ve had one of those complexes to hit our area (Kday/kcmh/cvg) in the last 5 years ( or more) I’d be shocked to know

April 8, 2020 was a big one. MCSs here are pretty common actually. That one was a derecho. Lots of wind damage.

Reports from April 2020 derecho.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:31 am If we’ve had one of those complexes to hit our area (Kday/kcmh/cvg) in the last 5 years ( or more) I’d be shocked to know

April 8, 2020 was a big one. MCSs here are pretty common actually. That one was a derecho. Lots of wind damage.

I was hoping someone could look that up…You found ONE, I’m shocked, notice it missed Dayton and Cbus

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 8:00 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:31 am If we’ve had one of those complexes to hit our area (Kday/kcmh/cvg) in the last 5 years ( or more) I’d be shocked to know

April 8, 2020 was a big one. MCSs here are pretty common actually. That one was a derecho. Lots of wind damage.

I was hoping someone could look that up…You found ONE, I’m shocked, notice it missed Dayton and Cbus

Trev... he means a region wide one. Something that covers a lot of real estate for the ILN CWA. I would have to do some major digging to find out when the last time it occurred. Not just CVG or just DAY or just CMH... we are talking all three climate sites being impacted.

Severe t-storm watches are currently located over KS and MO, That is our next disturbance to keep an eye on for down the road rain chances. For us locally, the current MCS continues to weaken as the nocturnal LLJ weakens as well as the shear and instability. The better rainfall continues to our SW where the better CAPE and shear exists. There is a nice instability gradient though along / S and SW of the OH river as well as a nice pocket of 40 knot shear over ILL. It remains to be seen if future development can pop along the boundary. For now, the visible satellite pic shows extensive cloudiness over the area. Unless we see that erode, we may not see much of anything until tonight with that aforementioned disturbance to our West. We shall have to wait and see how things evolve today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 8:47 am Severe t-storm watches are currently located over KS and MO, That is our next disturbance to keep an eye on for down the road rain chances. For us locally, the current MCS continues to weaken as the nocturnal LLJ weakens as well as the shear and instability. The better rainfall continues to our SW where the better CAPE and shear exists. There is a nice instability gradient though along / S and SW of the OH river as well as a nice pocket of 40 knot shear over ILL. It remains to be seen if future development can pop along the boundary. For now, the visible satellite pic shows extensive cloudiness over the area. Unless we see that erode, we may not see much of anything until tonight with that aforementioned disturbance to our West. We shall have to wait and see how things evolve today.

Good morning Les, looks like the NE part of that weakening MCS is running into a brick wall here, may see some very light rain or sprinkles from it!

Good morning Joe! The 12Z HRRR is coming in and thru tomorrow morning, it is flood watch cancel. It is not showing too much occurring at all tonight. Everything is scattered in nature even into the daytime hours tomorrow. I sure hope this is wrong.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 9:34 am Good morning Joe! The 12Z HRRR is coming in and thru tomorrow morning, it is flood watch cancel. It is not showing too much occurring at all tonight. Everything is scattered in nature even into the daytime hours tomorrow. I sure hope this is wrong.

Yeah, it looks like it'll be moving mainly south of us, hopefully it's wrong and also that we can at least get something with the cold front later tomorrow!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 8:06 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 8:00 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:43 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 7:31 am If we’ve had one of those complexes to hit our area (Kday/kcmh/cvg) in the last 5 years ( or more) I’d be shocked to know

April 8, 2020 was a big one. MCSs here are pretty common actually. That one was a derecho. Lots of wind damage.

I was hoping someone could look that up…You found ONE, I’m shocked, notice it missed Dayton and Cbus

Trev... he means a region wide one. Something that covers a lot of real estate for the ILN CWA. I would have to do some major digging to find out when the last time it occurred. Not just CVG or just DAY or just CMH... we are talking all three climate sites being impacted.

Lol well that’s pretty rare. I was under the impression that he was saying MCSs around here are rare lol.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 9:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 9:34 am Good morning Joe! The 12Z HRRR is coming in and thru tomorrow morning, it is flood watch cancel. It is not showing too much occurring at all tonight. Everything is scattered in nature even into the daytime hours tomorrow. I sure hope this is wrong.

Yeah, it looks like it'll be moving mainly south of us, hopefully it's wrong and also that we can at least get something with the cold front later tomorrow!

CAMs bounce around a lot in these types of setups. One run MCS, another nada.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 9:55 am

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 9:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 9:34 am Good morning Joe! The 12Z HRRR is coming in and thru tomorrow morning, it is flood watch cancel. It is not showing too much occurring at all tonight. Everything is scattered in nature even into the daytime hours tomorrow. I sure hope this is wrong.

Yeah, it looks like it'll be moving mainly south of us, hopefully it's wrong and also that we can at least get something with the cold front later tomorrow!

CAMs bounce around a lot in these types of setups. One run MCS, another nada.

Absolutely! Nowcasting is definitely the way to go with this as it usually is.

Ut oh... the 12Z NAM agrees with the 12Z HRRR. I'd feel better if the clouds weren't so stubborn around here. We need the cloud cover to erode for sure to build up some energy for tonight.

Latest visible satellite is looking a little better in terms of sunshine with some clearing finally taking place over Central IN. We'll just have to wait and see how much CAPE we can get this afternoon out ahead of the next disturbance over MO.

Latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A general lull in convective activity has been occurring across
the CWA this morning, while the closest thunderstorms were being
observed with a thunderstorm complex across southern Illinois
and western Kentucky. In this lull, regional satellite imagery
and local observations indicate scattered to broken mid/high
clouds across the CWA, with winds occasionally gusting up to 20
mph.

With breaks in the clouds, the atmosphere will heat up and
become unstable this afternoon so expect some thunderstorm
development by mid-afternoon. Different sets of guidance
including high resolution models depict variable scenarios for
this afternoon, ranging from little activity to more widespread
convection. So confidence in convective coverage is a bit lower
for a period one forecast today. Depending on where the most
breaks in the clouds may be, have leaned toward the northern
CWA (central/west central Ohio) and then toward the Tri- State
area as being more favorable locations for initial thunderstorm
development. Any storms that form and propagate through the CWA
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, and gusty to
locally damaging winds may occur in the strongest storms.

Confidence is low in reaching heat advisory criteria anywhere
in the CWA, especially with mid to high clouds. Will likely
continue with the SPS across the southern portion of the CWA
this afternoon. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph outside of any
convection will likely occur through the afternoon.

Forecast for the 2024 MLB All-Star Game at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX will be clear and thankfully its a night event as today's high there topping out at around 102 degrees! Sizzle baby!

Reds reps this year will be SS Elly De La Cruz and pitcher Hunter Greene.

Currently 82 here in G'ville and progged for around 86 today.

Bright sunshine IMBY and 89

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 10:58 am Latest visible satellite is looking a little better in terms of sunshine with some clearing finally taking place over Central IN. We'll just have to wait and see how much CAPE we can get this afternoon out ahead of the next disturbance over MO.

Stuck in this awful timing regime for a bonafide MCS. Still a decent LLJ nearby but CIN and cape , atm remain hostile

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 12:47 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2024 10:58 am Latest visible satellite is looking a little better in terms of sunshine with some clearing finally taking place over Central IN. We'll just have to wait and see how much CAPE we can get this afternoon out ahead of the next disturbance over MO.

Stuck in this awful timing regime for a bonafide MCS. Still a decent LLJ nearby but CIN and cape , atm remain hostile




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I agree. It makes sense why the CAMs were showing the best chance for storms to be south of us where the better CAPE currently resides. In fact, the SPC has trimmed back the marginal risk on the NW side and also the slight risk has been pushed further to the SW as well.