Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning and either today or Saturday should be the hottest day temp wise but if the dew points stay below 70 no where near heat advisory. Hopefully later Sunday the cold front can bring some rainfall to the area. Short-lived though as the front heads north Tuesday and that may well be the hottest day of this period because that front will stall just to the north and we wait for a really nice shot of cool air with the cold front on Wednesday. Middle of next week looks nice and Thursday of next week could be perfect with lower temps and humidity.

Give it credit to the gfs this week as it destroyed the Euro on temps. The high was to far east and we were able to get some clouds in here from the gulf many of the days. Again heat waves here locally are not the pattern we saw this week and usually for us to get a true heat wave where the heat advisory is happening occurs when the central and northern plains get hot and this keeps cold fronts from moving in plus less in the way of cloud cover.

We will see in July how everything sets up and I know some longer term models show a big ridge in the central USA and that is possible but exactly the position of this ridge plus we must remember the northern plains and upper mid-west has been wet so any cold fronts do have a better shot of moving southeast. Just way too early for any decent forecast.

The Ensembles Tim are showing the ridge retrograding to the SW, then it briefly builds back into the OV to end June and begin July only to move back towards the S Plains / SW US region again. If correct, we should be prone to more MCS's in the future.

87 / 67 at CVG as of 11am so the dew has dropped a bit from earlier this morning. That would give us a good shot at beating 93 today. We'll see!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2024 11:02 am 87 / 67 at CVG as of 11am so the dew has dropped a bit from earlier this morning. That would give us a good shot at beating 93 today. We'll see!

Exactly Les and of course the heat index will be about the same because of the lower dew point. Still not seeing us getting to heat advisory today but Saturday will be close as a front will be getting closer and with the overnight low higher Saturday morning a good start on temps along with higher dew points in the afternoon then we may see that heat advisory. Again its only a few degrees either way and its summer so yes hot and muggy but nothing we have not seen before and probably again this summer. Sort of hazy today as well. Late next week we may get a few days of decent days with lower temps and dew points but of course this time of year its not going to last long at all.

89 / 64 as of 12pm. I would be shocked now if we don't beat 93 today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2024 12:00 pm 89 / 64 as of 12pm. I would be shocked now if we don't beat 93 today.

Les with the at dew point lowering getting above 93 is much more likely but the feel like temperature will be less. I like the lower dew points myself

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2024 12:03 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2024 12:00 pm 89 / 64 as of 12pm. I would be shocked now if we don't beat 93 today.

Les with the at dew point lowering getting above 93 is much more likely but the feel like temperature will be less. I like the lower dew points myself

Same here Tim! It'll be hot but not as stifling as it has been.

Taking a peak at the new 12Z GFS run and it'll be a 50 / 50 chance for rain on Sunday with a weak cold front. Tues afternoon, next week, a small chance exists with the passage of a warm front. Then again on Wed / Wed night with the passage of a stronger cold front which should give us a few days break from the 90s before they of course return in early July. It's nice to see a little bit of hope showing up in the future for rain, but nothing as of yet that screams widespread, heavy rains. It still looks to be hit or miss.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2024 12:13 pm Taking a peak at the new 12Z GFS run and it'll be a 50 / 50 chance for rain on Sunday with a weak cold front. Tues afternoon, next week, a small chance exists with the passage of a warm front. Then again on Wed / Wed night with the passage of a stronger cold front which should give us a few days break from the 90s before they of course return in early July. It's nice to see a little bit of hope showing up in the future for rain, but nothing as of yet that screams widespread, heavy rains. It still looks to be hit or miss.

Sunday it looks like we have a leftover chance in the morning but it seems it be dying off as usual. Then where will the new boundary end up and many times its to the southeast of us. So again like you mentioned no widespread chances at all and the best chance may be Wednesday afternoon if we can get the correct timing.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2024 12:29 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2024 12:13 pm Taking a peak at the new 12Z GFS run and it'll be a 50 / 50 chance for rain on Sunday with a weak cold front. Tues afternoon, next week, a small chance exists with the passage of a warm front. Then again on Wed / Wed night with the passage of a stronger cold front which should give us a few days break from the 90s before they of course return in early July. It's nice to see a little bit of hope showing up in the future for rain, but nothing as of yet that screams widespread, heavy rains. It still looks to be hit or miss.

Sunday it looks like we have a leftover chance in the morning but it seems it be dying off as usual. Then where will the new boundary end up and many times its to the southeast of us. So again like you mentioned no widespread chances at all and the best chance may be Wednesday afternoon if we can get the correct timing.

I completely agree Tim. We tend to not do well with timing it seems like anyway but that's always the way it goes in weather and esp for our area.

91 / 68 as of 1pm at CVG so the dew has been creeping back up again. Figures....

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2024 12:13 pm Taking a peak at the new 12Z GFS run and it'll be a 50 / 50 chance for rain on Sunday with a weak cold front. Tues afternoon, next week, a small chance exists with the passage of a warm front. Then again on Wed / Wed night with the passage of a stronger cold front which should give us a few days break from the 90s before they of course return in early July. It's nice to see a little bit of hope showing up in the future for rain, but nothing as of yet that screams widespread, heavy rains. It still looks to be hit or miss.

Les, it's nice to see a few of these cold fronts coming through over the next two week on the GFS to knock down the 90's a few times. It does look like these fronts have little rain involved so hopefully we can get some MCS's to mingle in here with these fronts!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2024 1:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 21, 2024 12:13 pm Taking a peak at the new 12Z GFS run and it'll be a 50 / 50 chance for rain on Sunday with a weak cold front. Tues afternoon, next week, a small chance exists with the passage of a warm front. Then again on Wed / Wed night with the passage of a stronger cold front which should give us a few days break from the 90s before they of course return in early July. It's nice to see a little bit of hope showing up in the future for rain, but nothing as of yet that screams widespread, heavy rains. It still looks to be hit or miss.

Les, it's nice to see a few of these cold fronts coming through over the next two week on the GFS to knock down the 90's a few times. It does look like these fronts have little rain involved so hopefully we can get some MCS's to mingle in here with these fronts!

As long as it's dry for my party on the 6th I am good to go with whatever MCS's Mother Nature wants to throw our way. 93 officially at CVG so far so we are tied atm for the hottest day of 2024.

As always, just a reminder. You should be watering once a week any shrub or tree recently planted (less than three years) . These maps are lagging indicators and since the lag has been on the dry side we’re actually worse than drought maps currently indicate regionally

We have some potted Geraniums on our patio area and in front of our house that we water at least every other day.

Currently 90 here in G'ville.

CVG reached 95, DAY 94 and CMH 96 today.

HAPPY 29TH BIRTHDAY SHAYNE!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Thank you for your input here as part of our AV Community Family and for your service as a first responder in your community region!

Currently 86 here in G'ville and progged for around 93 today.

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MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2024 10:58 am HAPPY 29TH BIRTHDAY SHAYNE!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Thank you for your input here as part of our AV Community Family and for your service as a first responder in your community region!

Currently 86 here in G'ville and progged for around 93 today.

Thank you Eric!!

Currently 88 at KPHN. This heat can go away anytime now.

94 for a high here with a steady breeze all day

Both CVG / DAY got to 94 and CMH 95 today.

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Good Morning and most folks should get enough rain this morning to at least disturb the dust. If you get a tenth of an inch feel lucky. Storms should fire up again later this afternoon but exactly where is still up in the air though the further east the better shot. Good news is we get about 24-36 hours of somewhat nicer weather before the next shot of heat on Tuesday but that will be short-lived as a decent cold front arrives on Wednesday and that does have a better shot of some rainfall plus a few days of really nice weather to end the week.

A few sprinkles here, so no surprises. Complexes of storms that form far to our west are destined to die in our region with current pattern. Maybe something can fire up overhead later today