Absolute Vorticity

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Oct 09, 2024 8:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:57 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:47 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:32 am Leslie is weakening now down to a Cat 1 at 75 mph. Soon to be a TS. She will turn more to the NE and become a depression b the end of the week.

So where did Kirk disappear to? and wtf is that area off the FL Atlantic Coast? Will that cause any slow down or track change on Milton?

Kirk rocketed off to the NE caught up in the jet stream and will be an extra tropical system for Europe next week. Leslie is now down to a TS and is expected to take a similar path as Kirk. The area off the FL coast has a 20% chance to develop in the next 5-7 days. Currently I am not expecting any tropical development from it. I don't think it's going to impact Milton much. If anything Milton should push it further away from the SE Coast. That's my guess anyway.

Well, guess you were onto it there! That little wave got pushed further out into the Atlantic, now has a 40% chance of development out there. amazing how we went from zero to 100 in just a couple weeks time here. Looks like there is another wave coming off the African coast too!

Yep! That wave off of Africa has a low chance right now of development but needs to be watched. Leslie won't be a problem. Then we have that 40% chance wave as you said, but I don't think it'll be an issue for us either. The fantasy GFS is trying to cook up another one in the Gulf down the road a piece so we certainly need to keep an eye out on the tropics for at least the rest of the month. Officially, the hurricane season in the Atlantic basin runs until Nov 30th.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 09, 2024 8:43 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Oct 09, 2024 8:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:57 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:47 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:32 am Leslie is weakening now down to a Cat 1 at 75 mph. Soon to be a TS. She will turn more to the NE and become a depression b the end of the week.

So where did Kirk disappear to? and wtf is that area off the FL Atlantic Coast? Will that cause any slow down or track change on Milton?

Kirk rocketed off to the NE caught up in the jet stream and will be an extra tropical system for Europe next week. Leslie is now down to a TS and is expected to take a similar path as Kirk. The area off the FL coast has a 20% chance to develop in the next 5-7 days. Currently I am not expecting any tropical development from it. I don't think it's going to impact Milton much. If anything Milton should push it further away from the SE Coast. That's my guess anyway.

Well, guess you were onto it there! That little wave got pushed further out into the Atlantic, now has a 40% chance of development out there. amazing how we went from zero to 100 in just a couple weeks time here. Looks like there is another wave coming off the African coast too!

Yep! That wave off of Africa has a low chance right now of development but needs to be watched. Leslie won't be a problem. Then we have that 40% chance wave as you said, but I don't think it'll be an issue for us either. The fantasy GFS is trying to cook up another one in the Gulf down the road a piece so we certainly need to keep an eye out on the tropics for at least the rest of the month. Officially, the hurricane season in the Atlantic basin runs until Nov 30th.

Hopefully that'll just remain a fantasy and not materialize.

Watching some of the latest images and you can see where the eye has been clouded over for the most part. You can also see the storm is getting wider as well. Does this mean the storm is getting weaker or will get weaker. No doubt sooner or later that will happen but I am watching the southern and western part of the storm. Dry air is trying to work in from the west but the Hurricane is holding it off for the most part. Another item that does concern me is the southern part of the storm. Like I mentioned the storm is going through some changes but imo it looks southern part of the storm is once again trying to form a tail. This is the old comma shape storm which usually means its winding up more. Maybe this is just a few hour period and the comma goes away but if I see this continue over the next 3-5 hours then imo the storm will have fended off the first round of dry air. This storm is fluent and nowcast is no doubt what you need plus will look at some of the shorter term models.

Leslie has made a come back, up to 105 mph this morning moving NW. She will eventually recurve and move away from the US like Kirk in the coming days.

The next wave coming off of Africa still only has a 20% chance of development.

Leslie is moving north and now down to a TS. Again no threat to land. The African wave now has a 40% chance to develop.

94L is getting its act together per some model guidance. The NHC now has it at a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves into the Caribbean.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 4:31 am 94L is getting its act together per some model guidance. The NHC now has it at a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves into the Caribbean.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Prayerfully it'll weaken and possibly fizzle before it ever gets near the United States e.g. Lord knows we don't need another threat after HeLLene and Milton.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:14 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 4:31 am 94L is getting its act together per some model guidance. The NHC now has it at a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves into the Caribbean.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Prayerfully it'll weaken and possibly fizzle before it ever gets near the United States e.g. Lord knows we don't need another threat after HeLLene and Milton.

Currently, I do not see this as a threat at the moment. Ignore the usual social media hype that is floating around out there. It's just one of those keep one eye open kind of deals.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:59 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:14 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 4:31 am 94L is getting its act together per some model guidance. The NHC now has it at a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves into the Caribbean.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Prayerfully it'll weaken and possibly fizzle before it ever gets near the United States e.g. Lord knows we don't need another threat after HeLLene and Milton.

Currently, I do not see this as a threat at the moment. Ignore the usual social media hype that is floating around out there. It's just one of those keep one eye open kind of deals.

I agree , the cold front makes it to the Caribbean so that should keep it from heading northward. I think Tim also alluded to this in the October thread

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:28 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:59 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:14 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 4:31 am 94L is getting its act together per some model guidance. The NHC now has it at a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves into the Caribbean.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Prayerfully it'll weaken and possibly fizzle before it ever gets near the United States e.g. Lord knows we don't need another threat after HeLLene and Milton.

Currently, I do not see this as a threat at the moment. Ignore the usual social media hype that is floating around out there. It's just one of those keep one eye open kind of deals.

I agree , the cold front makes it to the Caribbean so that should keep it from heading northward. I think Tim also alluded to this in the October thread

Yep! Most of the guidance has this thing falling apart over Hispaniola, and since it's a weak system anyway, the mountains on the island rip it apart.

Great to hear, guys!

The NHC has lowered the threat for 94L to 30% and the models really no longer even develop this thing. Even if it does, it still dies over the DR. The other wave in the W Caribbean will run into Central America so it too won't be developing. So some good news... at this time, there are no threats to the CONUS with regards to tropical systems. We still have a month and some change to go until the hurricane season ends on 11/30. If anything develops we will tell you right here!

I was surprised to see this myself but we actually have an above avg ACE season now. ACE is at 140.6 and the avg is 122.5 It wasn't Helene, but rather Kirk, Leslie, and Milton that put us over the top. Click on the below link to see the stats for yourselves.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Re ... thatlantic

We do have TS Nadine now but it is going to run into Central America shortly so not a big deal. NHC just had to get in another named storm, you know.

Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 87.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:28 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:59 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:14 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 4:31 am 94L is getting its act together per some model guidance. The NHC now has it at a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves into the Caribbean.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Prayerfully it'll weaken and possibly fizzle before it ever gets near the United States e.g. Lord knows we don't need another threat after HeLLene and Milton.

Currently, I do not see this as a threat at the moment. Ignore the usual social media hype that is floating around out there. It's just one of those keep one eye open kind of deals.

I agree , the cold front makes it to the Caribbean so that should keep it from heading northward. I think Tim also alluded to this in the October thread

Yep! Most of the guidance has this thing falling apart over Hispaniola, and since it's a weak system anyway, the mountains on the island rip it apart.

Hurricane Oscar and which should get ripped apart over Hispaniola, thankfully.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2024 3:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:28 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:59 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:14 am

Prayerfully it'll weaken and possibly fizzle before it ever gets near the United States e.g. Lord knows we don't need another threat after HeLLene and Milton.

Currently, I do not see this as a threat at the moment. Ignore the usual social media hype that is floating around out there. It's just one of those keep one eye open kind of deals.

I agree , the cold front makes it to the Caribbean so that should keep it from heading northward. I think Tim also alluded to this in the October thread

Yep! Most of the guidance has this thing falling apart over Hispaniola, and since it's a weak system anyway, the mountains on the island rip it apart.

Hurricane Oscar and which should get ripped apart over Hispaniola, thankfully.

Wow... it was at a 30% chance this morning and boom, it developed rapidly. It looks to run into Cuba then turn NE and eventually become a fish storm.

Hurricane Oscar Special Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...RECON FINDS TINY OSCAR A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 70.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2024 3:58 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2024 3:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:28 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:59 am

Currently, I do not see this as a threat at the moment. Ignore the usual social media hype that is floating around out there. It's just one of those keep one eye open kind of deals.

I agree , the cold front makes it to the Caribbean so that should keep it from heading northward. I think Tim also alluded to this in the October thread

Yep! Most of the guidance has this thing falling apart over Hispaniola, and since it's a weak system anyway, the mountains on the island rip it apart.

Hurricane Oscar and which should get ripped apart over Hispaniola, thankfully.

Wow... it was at a 30% chance this morning and boom, it developed rapidly. It looks to run into Cuba then turn NE and eventually become a fish storm.

My geography was off. Glad that it'll become a fish storm eventually.

Nadine is a TD over land now and will eventually come back out over the East Pac and get a new name. We'll be tracking that in the East Pac tropical thread next week.

Meanwhile, Oscar is still a cane with winds of 80 mph moving to the SW towards Cuba. It will make landfall later today then slow down. It will turn back to the north early next week then pick up speed and move NE over the Bahamas by Tues or Wed then become a fish storm for the rest of next week.

Oscar is now down to a TS with winds of 60 mph over the Eastern tip of Cuba. No changes to the expected track in my above post.

Yes the Atlantic season tropical season is still alive but there should be no direct impact on the mainland USA. Saying that there is enough activity that is close enough say over Cuba to keep the cold fronts somewhat at bay over the next week or so and getting them much further south than say the Tn Valley will not be easy and even so not much impact. So once the activity dwindles to nothing and I believe this will happen especially if the mjo keeps heading to phase 7 and hopefully 8. This will also in time let these cold fronts dive further south but also will change how the GOM will react and this should at least to start and send up some moisture to interact with these fronts. Again only time will tell but that is how I see it playing out for the next week or so and will take another look later this week or early next week.

Oscar is now beginning to turn more to the NNE and will impact the Eastern Bahamas for the next few days then he's outta here later this week. As far as additional development goes, this time of year it tends to be more home grown which means the Caribbean, Gulf, and off the SE Coast. These would be the areas, should anything occur, that we'd need to keep an eye on. If we have a trough over the East, no problems, anything that develops would recurve. A big ridge, then something can always sneak underneath. Again, let me be clear, nothing is expected to impact the CONUS in the next 7-10 days. Are we completely in the clear No, as the season runs until Nov 30th. I don't think we'll need to wait that long but I would continue to keep one eye open over the next few weeks just in case.

Uh-oh. 60%


Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible during the next several days across portions of the area
from Nicaragua southeastward and eastward to northern Colombia.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent

The signals have been there for quite a while now. While the development has been slow to occur, the signal hasn't gone away. Glad the NHC is seeing the possibility now as well.

We have Subtropical storm Patty now over the N Atlantic. Really a BS system if you ask me, but whatever. The Caribbean wave is now of most importance with an 80% chance of development in the next 5 days. The next system name on the list is Rafael.