Absolute Vorticity

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Oct 09, 2024 8:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:57 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:47 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:32 am Leslie is weakening now down to a Cat 1 at 75 mph. Soon to be a TS. She will turn more to the NE and become a depression b the end of the week.

So where did Kirk disappear to? and wtf is that area off the FL Atlantic Coast? Will that cause any slow down or track change on Milton?

Kirk rocketed off to the NE caught up in the jet stream and will be an extra tropical system for Europe next week. Leslie is now down to a TS and is expected to take a similar path as Kirk. The area off the FL coast has a 20% chance to develop in the next 5-7 days. Currently I am not expecting any tropical development from it. I don't think it's going to impact Milton much. If anything Milton should push it further away from the SE Coast. That's my guess anyway.

Well, guess you were onto it there! That little wave got pushed further out into the Atlantic, now has a 40% chance of development out there. amazing how we went from zero to 100 in just a couple weeks time here. Looks like there is another wave coming off the African coast too!

Yep! That wave off of Africa has a low chance right now of development but needs to be watched. Leslie won't be a problem. Then we have that 40% chance wave as you said, but I don't think it'll be an issue for us either. The fantasy GFS is trying to cook up another one in the Gulf down the road a piece so we certainly need to keep an eye out on the tropics for at least the rest of the month. Officially, the hurricane season in the Atlantic basin runs until Nov 30th.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 09, 2024 8:43 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Oct 09, 2024 8:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:57 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:47 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:32 am Leslie is weakening now down to a Cat 1 at 75 mph. Soon to be a TS. She will turn more to the NE and become a depression b the end of the week.

So where did Kirk disappear to? and wtf is that area off the FL Atlantic Coast? Will that cause any slow down or track change on Milton?

Kirk rocketed off to the NE caught up in the jet stream and will be an extra tropical system for Europe next week. Leslie is now down to a TS and is expected to take a similar path as Kirk. The area off the FL coast has a 20% chance to develop in the next 5-7 days. Currently I am not expecting any tropical development from it. I don't think it's going to impact Milton much. If anything Milton should push it further away from the SE Coast. That's my guess anyway.

Well, guess you were onto it there! That little wave got pushed further out into the Atlantic, now has a 40% chance of development out there. amazing how we went from zero to 100 in just a couple weeks time here. Looks like there is another wave coming off the African coast too!

Yep! That wave off of Africa has a low chance right now of development but needs to be watched. Leslie won't be a problem. Then we have that 40% chance wave as you said, but I don't think it'll be an issue for us either. The fantasy GFS is trying to cook up another one in the Gulf down the road a piece so we certainly need to keep an eye out on the tropics for at least the rest of the month. Officially, the hurricane season in the Atlantic basin runs until Nov 30th.

Hopefully that'll just remain a fantasy and not materialize.

Watching some of the latest images and you can see where the eye has been clouded over for the most part. You can also see the storm is getting wider as well. Does this mean the storm is getting weaker or will get weaker. No doubt sooner or later that will happen but I am watching the southern and western part of the storm. Dry air is trying to work in from the west but the Hurricane is holding it off for the most part. Another item that does concern me is the southern part of the storm. Like I mentioned the storm is going through some changes but imo it looks southern part of the storm is once again trying to form a tail. This is the old comma shape storm which usually means its winding up more. Maybe this is just a few hour period and the comma goes away but if I see this continue over the next 3-5 hours then imo the storm will have fended off the first round of dry air. This storm is fluent and nowcast is no doubt what you need plus will look at some of the shorter term models.

Leslie has made a come back, up to 105 mph this morning moving NW. She will eventually recurve and move away from the US like Kirk in the coming days.

The next wave coming off of Africa still only has a 20% chance of development.

Leslie is moving north and now down to a TS. Again no threat to land. The African wave now has a 40% chance to develop.

94L is getting its act together per some model guidance. The NHC now has it at a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves into the Caribbean.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 4:31 am 94L is getting its act together per some model guidance. The NHC now has it at a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves into the Caribbean.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Prayerfully it'll weaken and possibly fizzle before it ever gets near the United States e.g. Lord knows we don't need another threat after HeLLene and Milton.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:14 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 4:31 am 94L is getting its act together per some model guidance. The NHC now has it at a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves into the Caribbean.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Prayerfully it'll weaken and possibly fizzle before it ever gets near the United States e.g. Lord knows we don't need another threat after HeLLene and Milton.

Currently, I do not see this as a threat at the moment. Ignore the usual social media hype that is floating around out there. It's just one of those keep one eye open kind of deals.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:59 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:14 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 4:31 am 94L is getting its act together per some model guidance. The NHC now has it at a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves into the Caribbean.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Prayerfully it'll weaken and possibly fizzle before it ever gets near the United States e.g. Lord knows we don't need another threat after HeLLene and Milton.

Currently, I do not see this as a threat at the moment. Ignore the usual social media hype that is floating around out there. It's just one of those keep one eye open kind of deals.

I agree , the cold front makes it to the Caribbean so that should keep it from heading northward. I think Tim also alluded to this in the October thread

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:28 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:59 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:14 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 4:31 am 94L is getting its act together per some model guidance. The NHC now has it at a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves into the Caribbean.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Prayerfully it'll weaken and possibly fizzle before it ever gets near the United States e.g. Lord knows we don't need another threat after HeLLene and Milton.

Currently, I do not see this as a threat at the moment. Ignore the usual social media hype that is floating around out there. It's just one of those keep one eye open kind of deals.

I agree , the cold front makes it to the Caribbean so that should keep it from heading northward. I think Tim also alluded to this in the October thread

Yep! Most of the guidance has this thing falling apart over Hispaniola, and since it's a weak system anyway, the mountains on the island rip it apart.

Great to hear, guys!