Absolute Vorticity

Had some rumbles of thunder and a small bit of rain here. All is quiet now.

About .3 tenths. More than I thought.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Grant County in northern Kentucky...
Northeastern Owen County in northern Kentucky...
Central Gallatin County in northern Kentucky...

* Until 315 PM EDT.

* At 240 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Kentucky Speedway, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Glencoe, Sparta, Munk,
Stewartsville, Cherry Grove, Northcutt, Interstate 71 at US Route
127, Williamstown Lake, New Liberty, Eagle Hill, Napoleon, Twin
Bridges, Needmore, Holbrook, Sherman, Elliston, and Lawrenceville.

The Prediction Center is talking about apple sized hail in that watch to our west.

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:49 pm The Prediction Center is talking about apple sized hail in that watch to our west.

Yeah... hail up to 3" in diameter possible.

I'll be back soon... almost time for the drive home. Keep up the coverage please.

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:49 pm The Prediction Center is talking about apple sized hail in that watch to our west.

I have some cousins and their families in O'Fallon, MO near St. Louis.

Currently 78 in STL with a DP of 60.

I live in southern Kenton County and though we are away from the tornado I can hear some really loud rumbles of thunder in the past 3 minutes. My guess that is the lone cell to my south making that noise

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:52 pm

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:49 pm The Prediction Center is talking about apple sized hail in that watch to our west.

Yeah... hail up to 3" in diameter possible.

My car is going under the carport tonight!

Carrollton tornado damage video. See link.

https://x.com/stormfrontfreak/status/17 ... 63066?s=20

Pretty impressive long lived supercell if you ask me. Classic hook on radar throughout. A pic of the backside of storm from Dillsboro

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 3:54 pm Pretty impressive long lived supercell if you ask me. Classic hook on radar throughout. A pic of the backside of storm from Dillsboro



IMG_1555.jpeg

Nice!!!

Pic near Madison IN and Milton KY along the river which got hit pretty hard

I wouldn’t let your guard down for our area late tonight and overnight, some pretty good severe parameters in our backyard still

That supercell is still ongoing even past Maysville! I am impressed!!

Okay so back to live action and it's humid and with some sunshine and we have warmed back up. I'm back up to 73 so CAPE is good once again and we are primed. Explosive development to our SW over KS and MO and that is the action heading NE that we need to watch for in the wee hours of the morning. Until we get there, CVG is at 71 with a dew of 62. Can also see development now getting into ILL and a wee bit now popping over North Central IN. There's our cold front so until that passes, we are fair game.

CAPE is up to 2500 now! Shear is crazy at 60 knots. Low and mid level lapse rates aren't as steep as earlier but still good enough. LI's at -5 EHI is at -3 and -4 and that is concerning for tornadoes. Usually -2 gets that one eye open so we do need to be on the lookout for supercells eventually congealing into a line with embedded mesos. Large hail also a concern with cold 500 MB temps.

Finally.... afternoon AFD from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The line of storms has weakened across our area as it has been
moving into a more stable airmass. The one exceptions is along
the southern edge of the line, where a more favorable airmass
has allowed for an isolated persistent supercell. This is moving
into a less favorable airmass too though so do expect an
eventual weakening trend with it.

Good clearing behind the line of storms is allowing for airmass
recovery back across Illinois and Indiana. Hi-res models
continue to show redevelopment in this area back to our west
over the next few hours. Some of this more favorable airmass
will likely advect into at least our western areas through this
evening with the potential for discrete supercells to work east
into our area this evening. This development should then move
east into our area through the evening hours and sag slowly
south as we head into tonight. Hi-res cams continue to suggest
the potential for discrete supercells this evening with this
activity so all weather hazards will remain in place. There are
also some signs of potential training so locally heavy rainfall
will also be possible. The severe threat should decrease through
the overnight hours as the instability begins to weaken.

Tornado Watch until Midnight

Hmm....Violent Tornado Parameter currently......this doesn't look good!

Expect a watch at some point with these parameters

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 5:20 pm Hmm....Violent Tornado Parameter currently......this doesn't look good!


Screenshot 2024-03-14 171935.png

It's centered over me

Could someone see if the 15z Sref updated? Got the grill going so I'm not at my PC. Thanks!

Chili dogs then tornadoes. That's how we roll around here lol

It’s a good thing storms aren’t in our area currently because with the current parameters locally , we’d be in deep do-do of severe weather

To me, this just has the feel that something pretty big is in the works. Look out for flash flooding as well tonight.

Good Afternoon and no doubt atmosphere has recovered. Expect much more in the way of severe weather through about 4-6am on Friday before it heads south. Earlier today it was the lone cell that provided a decent storm but overnight my guess the NWS will be very busy. Hope we can stay away from any damaging storms but at night just an added bonus.

CAPE of 2000-2500 J/KG has maximized for the day since the sun is beginning to go down now. DCAPE is best over Central KY for damaging winds. Tornadoes and large hail are the higher concerns in my opinion.