November 2023 Weather Discussion

[Trevor]

I also like the chance for some thunder/lightning Tuesday morning. Nothing severe but some boomers out there is a possibility. I will be adding thunder to my forecast in my afternoon update.

[Trevor]

My forecast rainfall is for 0.50-1.00 with most areas hitting 0.75” and I’m going to hold with that for now but if the models continue to up the amounts I will have to adjust.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and nice frosty one as I hit 29 this morning. Beautiful day in store with wall to wall sunshine. The system for very late Monday and Tuesday seems to be on target and still going with .5-1.0. Still believe heavier rainfall to the southwest as the storm system will be stronger at first and then weaken once it gets near us. The period from 4-9am is when we could see an hour or two of heavier rains and sure even some thunder and lightning but nothing severe by any means. Thanksgiving looks nice with a seasonal air mass but dry.Starting next weekend and lasting probably around 10 days or so we have the first true shot of cold and moisture entering the picture. Way to early for any storm prediction but it looks rather busy. How cold is another question and the one problem is lack of snow on the ground in the northern USA and parts of southern Canada. Sure the cold will be able to advance without snow cover but it tends to lose some of its bite. After that like most on this forum have stated a milder period after say Dec 5th or so. We need this so the northern regions of the planet can reload the cold. How long before the cold returns and it usually takes a bit longer than models show but the mjo seems to be in our favor this season compared to last which was horrible after December. I do hope the cold build up in Siberia and northern Canada is much colder than the first round in Oct and Nov.

[Trevor]

We are now in the range of the HRRR which will be a helpful tool for us.

[Trevor]

Good Morning and nice frosty one as I hit 29 this morning. Beautiful day in store with wall to wall sunshine. The system for very late Monday and Tuesday seems to be on target and still going with .5-1.0. Still believe heavier rainfall to the southwest as the storm system will be stronger at first and then weaken once it gets near us. The period from 4-9am is when we could see an hour or two of heavier rains and sure even some thunder and lightning but nothing severe by any means. Thanksgiving looks nice with a seasonal air mass but dry.Starting next weekend and lasting probably around 10 days or so we have the first true shot of cold and moisture entering the picture. Way to early for any storm prediction but it looks rather busy. How cold is another question and the one problem is lack of snow on the ground in the northern USA and parts of southern Canada. Sure the cold will be able to advance without snow cover but it tends to lose some of its bite. After that like most on this forum have stated a milder period after say Dec 5th or so. We need this so the northern regions of the planet can reload the cold. How long before the cold returns and it usually takes a bit longer than models show but the mjo seems to be in our favor this season compared to last which was horrible after December. I do hope the cold build up in Siberia and northern Canada is much colder than the first round in Oct and Nov.

Great post Tim. Agreed with the lack of snow cover moderating the cold blasts. It’ll still get cold but not as cold as it could be with snow cover to our north and northwest.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Just wanted to make a quick post before I grind more leaves in a little bit then we are celebrating my Mom's Birthday today. We are taking her out for dinner once my Brother and his family get here.

Anyway... by the looks of things, my half inch call could be too low for this next system. If you avg out the models your 1" call Trev looks perfect. Then we'll just have to wait and see what happens in the extended range for cold and snow chances. I like the Nov 28th thru 12/2 period for something rolling out of the STJ while we have the cold air in place with the arctic high to our north. That is a classic set up for wintry fun around here if we get the right timing of the cold and moisture obviously.

[tron777]

This should get the rest of those oak leaves down on Tuesday and I can do my final grinding of the season hopefully during the long Thanksgiving weekend.

Tues Wind.png

[Trevor]

HRRR backs up my thunder call…

[tpweather]

I agree Trev and with the timing in the 4-9am period thunder is more likely. Again nothing severe but a few claps of thunder seem possible. Probably more important is the folks that get underneath one of these thundershowers could see rain totals get somewhat higher. Still going .5-1.0 with higher amounts possible if you get the thundershower or happen to be in the place where an extra couple of hours where the rain is heavier.

[tron777]

In the extended range, the colder air comes after Thanksgiving and esp by the 27th or so. That is why I am going with 11/28 on as a shot for wintry weather before the warmth returns later in December.

[Trevor]

In the extended range, the colder air comes after Thanksgiving and esp by the 27th or so. That is why I am going with 11/28 on as a shot for wintry weather before the warmth returns later in December.

I am in agreement with that timing.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has 0.92" at CVG for our next system.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and no changes to the upcoming system. A decent rain for most folks which will no doubt help. Then we have a nice Thanksgiving with temps just a few degrees below normal. Next weekend temps will drop a tad more and we start to see minor disturbances move through the jet stream but the jet is moving quick enough that a larger system is unlikely. Next week and heading towards Dec the jet is still rather fast but can we get some blocking before we change the pattern around the 5th or so of Dec. Still have plenty of time to see what happens but even without blocking should see a busier period from about the 28th of Nov but will this include snow since the cold air is not the coldest you ever see for late November

[airwolf76]

yesterday was such a nice fall day to get stuff done outside. just a nice partly cloudy hoodie kind of day. its been my kind of fall. average to below avg temps and below avg precip. we have some ground to make up in the precip dept. my guess is late this month and Dec is when that happens.

[tron777]

Good morning all! 43 this morning as we await the arrival of our next system. A few showers today are possible mainly this afternoon but the steadier / heavier rains come in after midnight thru early Tues morning. As Trev mentioned, a rumble of thunder is possible, but nothing severe is expected. The wind will also be quite gusty on Tues with 40 mph gusts possible. I like what Tim has mentioned for rainfall, 0.50 to 1" for a lot of folks. But... if you happen to catch a t-storm or two then amounts over an inch will be the result.

We still look to be dry on Wed, Thanksgiving, and also on Black Friday. Highs on either side of 50 with lows in the low 30s. For the weekend... not sure yet if it will remain dry with highs in the 40s and lows in the U20s to around 30. Or do we see a weak system slide in with some light rain and / or a snow flake? The signal from the weekend on is not very strong for a big storm system or for a wintry type system on the models. We have split flow pattern and cold air readily available but can we get a phasing system to tap into the cold air or the other scenario is weak systems that shear out due to progressive flow. Meaning the flow is just too fast for any phasing to take place. The way it currently looks to be is the later. Would love to see that change to option number one, but I'm just not seeing it at this point in time.

[tpweather]

Good morning all! 43 this morning as we await the arrival of our next system. A few showers today are possible mainly this afternoon but the steadier / heavier rains come in after midnight thru early Tues morning. As Trev mentioned, a rumble of thunder is possible, but nothing severe is expected. The wind will also be quite gusty on Tues with 40 mph gusts possible. I like what Tim has mentioned for rainfall, 0.50 to 1" for a lot of folks. But... if you happen to catch a t-storm or two then amounts over an inch will be the result.

We still look to be dry on Wed, Thanksgiving, and also on Black Friday. Highs on either side of 50 with lows in the low 30s. For the weekend... not sure yet if it will remain dry with highs in the 40s and lows in the U20s to around 30. Or do we see a weak system slide in with some light rain and / or a snow flake? The signal from the weekend on is not very strong for a big storm system or for a wintry type system on the models. We have split flow pattern and cold air readily available but can we get a phasing system to tap into the cold air or the other scenario is weak systems that shear out due to progressive flow. Meaning the flow is just too fast for any phasing to take place. The way it currently looks to be is the later. Would love to see that change to option number one, but I'm just not seeing it at this point in time.

Good Morning Les and great post. I agree 100p/c about the flow being to fast after Tuesdays storm. Though I thought the pattern would be decent for some winter weather next week the phasing still might be a problem. Another problem is the cold air. Yes we are seeing a nice push of cold air starting later this week but the problem is how cold is this air and can it make it over bare grounds in the northern plains. IMO the arctic air that we are seeing from this is just not that cold. Even folks in the upper plains may just stay in the 20's for highs and sure its cold but not what you see many times for later November and early December. Most on here expect another pattern change sometime around the 5th of December and most likely that is when we get a bigger system but then you are drawing up warmer air into the mix and with little to no snow cover that warm air can flow very quickly into the central USA. Yes we are early in the season but the one item I see happening so far is the coldest air is to the northeast and this may be the pattern all winter which tends to put us on the western edge of cold air masses and this limits our chances for winter weather.

[tron777]

I feel the same way Tim. Maybe the stormier look returns. We've got another week yet to keep an eye on it but for now this is what we're facing.

[Trevor]

That is going to be some heavy rain! Model projection for 5am.

[Trevor]

I still like my 0.75-1.00” call. It was initially 0.5-1.00” earlier on but I narrowed the range as we got closer.

[tpweather]

That is going to be some heavy rain! Model projection for 5am.

Agree Trev and like I always mentioned when you get the precip between 4a-9a totals can go up quickly. Matter of fact the sref have CVG at about 1.5 and most of the members are between 1.0 and 1.5. May need to increase the totals locally because a 2-4 hour period of heavy rain alone can bring nearly 1 inch by itself . I thought that number would be closer to .5 and add another .5 which gave me the .5-1.0. Will watch today to see if a shift to the higher amounts take place or remains the same

[Trevor]

That is going to be some heavy rain! Model projection for 5am.

Agree Trev and like I always mentioned when you get the precip between 4a-9a totals can go up quickly. Matter of fact the sref have CVG at about 1.5 and most of the members are between 1.0 and 1.5. May need to increase the totals locally because a 2-4 hour period of heavy rain alone can bring nearly 1 inch by itself . I thought that number would be closer to .5 and add another .5 which gave me the .5-1.0. Will watch today to see if a shift to the higher amounts take place or remains the same

Agreed! In my update on my site yesterday I did mention that some areas could exceed an inch. I think that is definitely on the table.

[tpweather]

Looking ahead to next weekend and beyond which I touched on earlier. The ridging is building in Alaska and that will happen this week and the cold over the Yukon will head towards the USA. Again not the coldest air mass ever but its cold. The biggest problem I see is lack of snow cover over much of the USA. The air mass will head this way but as cold air is dense and really with the blocking in Alaska and finally in northern Canada the cold air will head south. There is snow cover over Canada but towards the USA border much lighter or in some places no snow. The STJ which is going to a big factor this winter will be a tad further south compared to the current set up and there is the problem. Models with cold air masses as we no have problems showing little disturbances that come along with the cold air and yes we will see those start to show up later this week. Can we get one of those disturbances to hook up with the STJ to get a bigger storm is the question,

[tpweather]

The STJ and what we see in many El Nino's compared to what is happening this season so far. Every El Nino is somewhat different but usually the STJ is busy. Besides the current system the jet has taken a more southerly track into Mexico and heading towards Florida. This kind of path usually keeps us fairly dry but cool. We need the STJ to be further north and have it come into southern California and head towards the Carolina's to give us the best chance of some decent storms. At this point I have no idea what the main storm track will be but the next few weeks may give us a hint of what may happen with the STJ this winter. Again even if we get one or the other to set up shop does not mean it can vary at times but usually patterns are stubborn and that has become even more relevant in the past 10-20 years.

[Bgoney]

That is going to be some heavy rain! Model projection for 5am.

Agree Trev and like I always mentioned when you get the precip between 4a-9a totals can go up quickly. Matter of fact the sref have CVG at about 1.5 and most of the members are between 1.0 and 1.5. May need to increase the totals locally because a 2-4 hour period of heavy rain alone can bring nearly 1 inch by itself . I thought that number would be closer to .5 and add another .5 which gave me the .5-1.0. Will watch today to see if a shift to the higher amounts take place or remains the same

Welcome back Tim, in agreement on the .50-1.0” amounts for the OV triangle (Dayton, Cbus , Cvgland), plant-life will take anything it can get as the deep soil moisture is still lacking for this late in the year

IMG_0855.gif

[tpweather]

Bgoney, what is wild and how quickly this can change. Down in Greenville,SC from June 2019-June 2023 and the average rainfall was at least 20 p/c above normal for the entire period. Since July you can see how quickly the drought set in. Seeing those fires in Tn heading back from HH was something I had never seen before. We are talking fires burning no more than 500 feet from a business. Again these were small fires on a hill but they were burning. We could see more intense smoke away from I-40 and my guess away from any towns.